Before moving on to the year 2008, lets stop and reflect on what the Board knew, or should have known, hereinafter “KOSHK“.
First, the Board KOSHK that building construction costs were increasing at a very high rate.
5.4% in 04,
9.5% in 05,
10.6% in 06
Likely high in 07 as well
If the Board wasn’t aware in 06, they were certainly aware in 07 when that Ehler memo came out, discussing the need for additional revenue for construction.
Second, the Board KOSHK that residential development was declining dramatically.
winsome.cnchost.com/MAC/NapervilleResidentialPermits1999_2009Q1.pdfIn 1999, in Naperville (the best representation of District development), there were 1135 residential units developed (SF and multifamily). By 2003, the total had been cut almost in half to 602 units. In 2006 half again, to 342 units. By the end of 2007, 239 total units.
Third, the Board KOSHK that enrollment figures were not panning out to coincide with a HS enrollment of 10,200 students. It was now the end of 2007 and enrollment was showing a peak HS enrollment of approximately 9200 HS students in 2013, with enrollment holding steady till 2016 then falling back to approximately 8500 HS students in 2019. All this based on actual enrollment figures of students moving through the system.
In addition, total D204 enrollment was flattening due to the dramatic decline in development. We were getting close to being “built out” in material terms. Total enrollment in 2006 had increased by 616 students, or about 50 per class year and in 2007 it was down to, 417, or 35 per class year.
Finally, looking at 2007 enrollment, save for the 4 year block of students which would produce the peak in 2013 of approximately 9200 HS students, there was no other 4 year block that exceeded that level for two years running now, and there was certainly no evidence that total HS enrollment was continuing to increase to remotely match the original 10,200 projections.
Right at this point, imo, bells should have been going off. With the cost of a HS increasing dramatically, with enrollment no where near what was originally projected, with growth grinding to a halt, and finally with revenues from growth near peak, the Board should have considered whether it was prudent to continue down this path.
The thing most disturbing to me, let along the lack of due diligence in the beginning, is this: there were material changes in a number of factors that, imo, should have prompted the Board to inform the public of the changing situation. The only Board member who had signaled any disagreement with the Boards course was CV, from the very beginning.
To anyone who wants to say “well this is hindsight” my response is, these are facts that existed at this point in time. All material to the premise of a need to build a third HS.
These facts, imo, should have called into question the current course of action. In addition, these facts should have motivated, if not compelled, the Board to discuss these issues with the public as part of a duty to keep the public informed.
08
Construction costs increased in 2007 by 7.7%
winsome.cnchost.com/MAC/TurnerConstruction_1stQtr2009.pdfJanuary 15, Board selects AME site to build 3d HS, even though this land was rejected in 2005 as unsuitable for safety reasons and remote to the center of the student population density.
Six months previous, our Superintendent purchased a home “just across the street from this site.”
February, boundaries are set.
March, PMA projects declining enrollment going forward (less than what is currently in the system)
winsome.cnchost.com/MAC/PMAanalysis2008.pdfApril, Board approves purchase of AME land for $19 million with one Board member dissenting, CV, stating there is no need for a third HS.
May, Turner breaks ground.
May, lawsuit rejected by Judge Popejoy
Sept. 30 2009 enrollment
winsome.cnchost.com/MAC/2009_10_ENROLLMENT_REPORT_093009.pdf Total enrollment:29735
Is there any indication that we will have 10200 HS kids coming anytime soon?
Sept 30 2010 enrollment
winsome.cnchost.com/MAC/2010_11_ENROLLMENT_REPORT_022811-1.pdf Total enrollment: 29468
Is there any indication that we will have 10200 HS kids coming anytime soon?
Sept 30 2011 enrollment
winsome.cnchost.com/MAC/2011_12ENROLLMENTREPORT093011.pdf Total enrollment: 29216
Is there any indication that we will have 10200 HS kids coming anytime soon?
modified 10/23/2011: I don't know what you think, but to me this is getting rather embarrassing!
