NIU Study number problem

[Arch]

Slowed growth can only maintain a plateau if there is still a 1:1 replacement of kids each year.

One can look at enrollment between 2 and 1, then 1 and K and see the decline as an indication of the back-side of that grade 2-5 bubble.

It's entirely possible that we get a series of bubbles that exhibit this characteristic and never approach the 'continued growth' expectations that some are guessing will happen.

[admin]

Arch, you have to throw out k-1, their numbers are highly volatile. If one looks at the history, about 200 mor kids join their class in 1st and few more in 2nd.

[204parent]

The 2005-2006 Kindergarten class is the largest in history at 2,099. Add 200 to that to account for the kids in private Kindergartens, and next year's 1st grade class is on pace to be 2,299. That's the 2nd largest 1st grade class in history (2004-2005 1st grade was 2,316)

The district is still growing.

www.ipsd.org/3rdHS_enrollment.asp

[ogden]

You also have to consider new homes. Even if the replacement is not 1 to 1 in existing homes, the new kids from new homes may make up the difference or even add more kids in the district. I have been in the district for 15 years, and I still see more homes going in both the north and the south.

[Arch]

In 9 months, we can validate for certain everyone's guess on the numbers.

[Arch]

The only 'urgency' about anything is losing the ability to ever get BB again. This referendum is not the last time to ever do anything strategic about the enrollment numbers.

[admin]

BB was picked for one reason and one reason only. It was the only place that could give the referendum a shot at passing.

[204parent]

admin said:

BB was picked for one reason and one reason only. It was the only place that could give the referendum a shot at passing.

Agree. Let's face it, the North would never support a HS in the South, and the South would never support a HS in the North. BB is right in the middle, so we can take some kids out of WV and NV and send them to the new HS. That's exactly what options 5A and 5B do.

This is really in the wrong thread, so I'll stop here.

[proschool]

204parent said:

admin said:

BB was picked for one reason and one reason only. It was the only place that could give the referendum a shot at passing.

Agree. Let's face it, the North would never support a HS in the South, and the South would never support a HS in the North. BB is right in the middle, so we can take some kids out of WV and NV and send them to the new HS. That's exactly what options 5A and 5B do.

This is really in the wrong thread, so I'll stop here.

I know its in the wrong thread but I have to respond to this.

The south will not accept a new school in the south because everyone in the south refuses to leave NV. They would like the school to be there but they do not want to go there and that would be a problem.

[admin]

I would take a new HS in a heartbeat if they had a good site. I think the mistake is that the Crone should have been the 3rd Hs site.

[proschool]

admin said:

I would take a new HS in a heartbeat if they had a good site. I think the mistake is that the Crone should have been the 3rd Hs site.

I think that Topher is in the minority. Look at Fry. They do not want to be at the high school. If you build the school in the south, maybe two elementary scholl will be able to stay at NV. 3000 kids have to go south to the new school.

[wvhsparent]

proschool said:

admin said:

I would take a new HS in a heartbeat if they had a good site. I think the mistake is that the Crone should have been the 3rd Hs site.

I think that Topher is in the minority. Look at Fry. They do not want to be at the high school. If you build the school in the south, maybe two elementary scholl will be able to stay at NV. 3000 kids have to go south to the new school.

But to quote the "famous quote" I hear from evrybody
"That's where all the kids are"

Newsflash.....The kids are all over......not just down south

[admin]

I think if you had a SW school with something like WE, Fry, Wheatland, Kendall, Graham, and Peterson, people would do this in a heartbeat.

[al]

I agree with Topher - we are planned for NV in all cases, but I would take the New School in an instant if it were down in this area. Would actually prefer it...