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Post by doctorwho on May 13, 2008 8:58:13 GMT -6
Enrollment is down and will continue to decline, and because this thing is so messed up, they are gunning to get started building so when the embarrassing 2008-09 enrollment declines again, they can say "well, now there is no turning back" so pay up. Enrollment for the district is actually up 188 students from '06-'07, but that's certainly not "crazy growth," especially when you factor that out across 13 grades. I do believe that we need another middle school. Scullen is ridiculously overcrowded, and the other five could use relief as well. Do we need a third full amenity high school? Hmmmm.... I agree the MS is needed.... the projected spike in attendance for 2009 however is grossly inflated as they count 1/2 day kindergarten kids as 1/2 a kid in 2008's 27819 . Well no, you can;t do that as 1/2 a kid does not move on to 1st grade etc- a whole kid goes there. so they show 921 kindergarten attendance in 2008 and 2019 for 2009 ! How ridiculous. the attendance for 2008 should be 28740 and 2009 29042 apples to apples so that 'overall' increase is 262 - not 1223 that they show on the charts. 2013 projection is down from there. peak for 1st grade was 2005=2317 2008 =2210 2103= 2104 that trend continues upward and will play out it appears. |
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Post by doctorwho on May 13, 2008 9:03:08 GMT -6
Also due to lot sizes that area was never going to be TG II -- and the March figures do factor in growth over the next 5 years - but I think they also more accurately factor in the aging of many other areas in the district. Again, what I am looking for is who did the 2001 projection ( I know NIU did the last one) - and why did the drastic change occur - which appears to be totally false ? Just trying to connect the dots to understand -- 8800 to 10,400 is an 18% jump for the district - that's a lot more than Sector G. even if everyone else stayed flat ( which appears not happening either). a reasonable question for a new 'reasonable voter' Doc, I live on the northern side of the district and am wondering about the "aging" you refer to here. In the north there are some subdivisions from the 1980's or earlier (Butterfield, Brookdale) and there seem to be no shortage of families with young children living there now. My own subdivision is 10 or so years old now, and we've had plenty of turnover of homes. It seems that the people buying have pre-K age kids or are just now getting pregnant. I agree that the number are probably not what they were when large sub-divisions like Stonebridge or Oakhurst were just being built, but it doesn't seem like the aging of homes is changing the student numbers that much. Do you see this in your neighborhood? absolutely see it in my enighborhood. Look at Watts attendance. We went from severely overcrowded- even after the addition - to now having room for the kids from Lehigh Station and 30 more coming from Rt 59 and North Aurora Ave. Owen elementary I understand is less than 70% capacity and there is no growth there housing wise. All one has to do is look at 203 for a guide to the cycle. Yes there are ebbs and flows - but compared to when subdivisions are new - especially with median priced housing on average sized lots - older housing stock does not attract kids in bulk the same way. Many many empty nesters or close to being in my area where every house it seemed had kids 20 years ago when the area was new. Yes people with kids do move in, but not at that same level as when the area is being built. |
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Post by rural on May 13, 2008 9:10:35 GMT -6
Doc, I live on the northern side of the district and am wondering about the "aging" you refer to here. In the north there are some subdivisions from the 1980's or earlier (Butterfield, Brookdale) and there seem to be no shortage of families with young children living there now. My own subdivision is 10 or so years old now, and we've had plenty of turnover of homes. It seems that the people buying have pre-K age kids or are just now getting pregnant. I agree that the number are probably not what they were when large sub-divisions like Stonebridge or Oakhurst were just being built, but it doesn't seem like the aging of homes is changing the student numbers that much. Do you see this in your neighborhood? absolutely see it in my enighborhood. Look at Watts attendance. We went from severely overcrowded- even after the addition - to now having room for the kids from Lehigh Station and 30 more coming from Rt 59 and North Aurora Ave. Owen elementary I understand is less than 70% capacity and there is no growth there housing wise. All one has to do is look at 203 for a guide to the cycle. Yes there are ebbs and flows - but compared to when subdivisions are new - especially with median priced housing on average sized lots - older housing stock does not attract kids in bulk the same way. Many many empty nesters or close to being in my area where every house it seemed had kids 20 years ago when the area was new. Yes people with kids do move in, but not at that same level as when the area is being built. Someone should tell that to Longwood ES. |
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Post by Arch on May 13, 2008 9:14:10 GMT -6
absolutely see it in my enighborhood. Look at Watts attendance. We went from severely overcrowded- even after the addition - to now having room for the kids from Lehigh Station and 30 more coming from Rt 59 and North Aurora Ave. Owen elementary I understand is less than 70% capacity and there is no growth there housing wise. All one has to do is look at 203 for a guide to the cycle. Yes there are ebbs and flows - but compared to when subdivisions are new - especially with median priced housing on average sized lots - older housing stock does not attract kids in bulk the same way. Many many empty nesters or close to being in my area where every house it seemed had kids 20 years ago when the area was new. Yes people with kids do move in, but not at that same level as when the area is being built. Someone should tell that to Longwood ES. ADK takes up room, eh? |
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Post by rural on May 13, 2008 9:17:05 GMT -6
Someone should tell that to Longwood ES. ADK takes up room, eh? If it were only that simple, Arch.  |
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Post by Arch on May 13, 2008 9:22:50 GMT -6
If it were only that simple, Arch. It is that simple: Implementing ADK takes up more room than the 1/2 day K they used to do. Correct or not? |
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Post by d204mom on May 13, 2008 9:26:34 GMT -6
So again, I see where they were coming from....but what I don't buy is that by the time BB fell apart, etc., we weren't just projecting a housing bubble, we were full on in the "pop." Could we have at that time considered re-evaluating the need for a full amenity high school? Sure. A magnet program, etc. etc. at a cheaper cost might fulfill our needs at this time. It does seem, though, that eventually the market will correct, and children will pour into those new areas. By then, though, our other areas will have aged....so will it balance? Perhaps. 14 of our elementary schools (I did not count Wheatland) saw an enrollment decline last year. Hmmmmm...... Clearly when BB fell apart, all options were not put back on the table. Daeschner has made it clear that we need another high school because there is research that shows that a 1500 seat or so HS is "optimal." WTH? We aren't going to have optimal HS sizes in our district, ever. That is not a reason for a $150M 3,000 seat school. We crossed that bridge long ago. Plainfield has chosen to have more, smaller, high schools. We made a different choice, so using the logic of 1500 seats is better does not translate into "smaller is always better." Where is the research that shows having 3 high schools at 3000 / 3000 / 4000 is better than having 2 high schools at 4500 / 4500 (assuming the new numbers of peak enrollment hold)? ETA - What are the actual numbers based on the boundaries? I thought MV would be around 2400 long term anyway. |
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Post by d204mom on May 13, 2008 9:27:53 GMT -6
absolutely see it in my enighborhood. Look at Watts attendance. We went from severely overcrowded- even after the addition - to now having room for the kids from Lehigh Station and 30 more coming from Rt 59 and North Aurora Ave. Owen elementary I understand is less than 70% capacity and there is no growth there housing wise. All one has to do is look at 203 for a guide to the cycle. Yes there are ebbs and flows - but compared to when subdivisions are new - especially with median priced housing on average sized lots - older housing stock does not attract kids in bulk the same way. Many many empty nesters or close to being in my area where every house it seemed had kids 20 years ago when the area was new. Yes people with kids do move in, but not at that same level as when the area is being built. Someone should tell that to Longwood ES. You could build a darn fine addition onto Longwood for just the $5M we are guaranteed to throw away on BB. |
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Post by d204mom on May 13, 2008 9:32:02 GMT -6
If it were only that simple, Arch. It is that simple: Implementing ADK takes up more room than the 1/2 day K they used to do. Correct or not? IIRC we are going to need 60-odd new teachers for ADK. That directly translates into the number of classrooms needed for ADK, right? ADK removes 60 ES classrooms. |
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Post by Arch on May 13, 2008 9:38:12 GMT -6
It is that simple: Implementing ADK takes up more room than the 1/2 day K they used to do. Correct or not? IIRC we are going to need 60-odd new teachers for ADK. That directly translates into the number of classrooms needed for ADK, right? ADK removes 60 ES classrooms. Art, music, etc, etc. |
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Post by rural on May 13, 2008 9:42:35 GMT -6
If it were only that simple, Arch. It is that simple: Implementing ADK takes up more room than the 1/2 day K they used to do. Correct or not? No, it's not that simple. Longwood in the past ten years alone has seen a mass exodus of the older generation that was living there. They have been replaced with younger families just starting out. Add to that the influx of lower income/younger families from the apartments in the area and that starts to add up also. That's not even counting transient family turnover. There is nothing "simple" about the issues faced by Longwood. ADK is 2-3 classrooms tops. This has been addressed by itinerant art and music. Optimal? I don't think so. Necessary? Most definitely. ADK has been a wonderful improvement for Longwood. To pin overcrowding on ADK alone is an oversimplification, IMO. |
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Post by doctorwho on May 13, 2008 9:54:28 GMT -6
absolutely see it in my enighborhood. Look at Watts attendance. We went from severely overcrowded- even after the addition - to now having room for the kids from Lehigh Station and 30 more coming from Rt 59 and North Aurora Ave. Owen elementary I understand is less than 70% capacity and there is no growth there housing wise. All one has to do is look at 203 for a guide to the cycle. Yes there are ebbs and flows - but compared to when subdivisions are new - especially with median priced housing on average sized lots - older housing stock does not attract kids in bulk the same way. Many many empty nesters or close to being in my area where every house it seemed had kids 20 years ago when the area was new. Yes people with kids do move in, but not at that same level as when the area is being built. Someone should tell that to Longwood ES. flip side is Owen capacity wise ( as would be May Watts if not for bussing kids in) - so it appears maybe more bussing has to occur - Maybe we should have spent the money on replacing LW and building a MS ? Just a thought. I didn't like it when I heard how much was on a cart at LW either - even though we got the spiel how it is just fine - having lived through art- music etc on a cart before Watts was expanded, it is not alright. Kids do not get the same experience as others ( now where will that happen again - hmm) - |
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Post by d204mom on May 13, 2008 10:03:13 GMT -6
absolutely see it in my enighborhood. Look at Watts attendance. We went from severely overcrowded- even after the addition - to now having room for the kids from Lehigh Station and 30 more coming from Rt 59 and North Aurora Ave. Owen elementary I understand is less than 70% capacity and there is no growth there housing wise. All one has to do is look at 203 for a guide to the cycle. Yes there are ebbs and flows - but compared to when subdivisions are new - especially with median priced housing on average sized lots - older housing stock does not attract kids in bulk the same way. Many many empty nesters or close to being in my area where every house it seemed had kids 20 years ago when the area was new. Yes people with kids do move in, but not at that same level as when the area is being built. Someone should tell that to Longwood ES. They should also be informed that the school board has chosen to pi$$ away $5M in attorney fees on BB instead of building an addition to LW. Also, please inform them that Daeschner and the board have chosen to have MV open in fall of 2009 for an additional cost of $5M when enrollment doesn't peak until 2011 and then declines. Legally I believe the $8M in bond premiums can be spent on any contruction project, it need not be earmarked for MV. Seeing as we didn't approve it anyway. |
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Post by Arch on May 13, 2008 10:06:34 GMT -6
It is that simple: Implementing ADK takes up more room than the 1/2 day K they used to do. Correct or not? No, it's not that simple. Longwood in the past ten years alone has seen a mass exodus of the older generation that was living there. They have been replaced with younger families just starting out. Add to that the influx of lower income/younger families from the apartments in the area and that starts to add up also. That's not even counting transient family turnover. There is nothing "simple" about the issues faced by Longwood. ADK is 2-3 classrooms tops. This has been addressed by itinerant art and music. Optimal? I don't think so. Necessary? Most definitely. ADK has been a wonderful improvement for Longwood. To pin overcrowding on ADK alone is an oversimplification, IMO. Let me see.. they are sending 30ish kids to MW, and another 30ish to Brookdale. That's how many classrooms? 2-3? |
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Post by rural on May 13, 2008 10:15:31 GMT -6
Is this curing the music and art on a cart issue? Do they get their classrooms back? I understand where you are going with this, but I see the wisdom of ADK. It is a benefit, and it is something that should have been implemented many, many years ago.
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