District 204 growth slows

[blankcheck]

Bob- I'm am using the growth models that the district provided and the fact presented in the Daily Herald today. As is stands, their first model is the closest of them all and at best, that shows -354 high school students. Bottom line - you can deny it all you want - what they based part of the referendum on was enrollment figures and that my friend was wrong.

[bob]

I am not denying anything but you omitted some info

Year NG 1 2 Current C-ng
2007-8 8536 8656 8626 8086 -450
2008-9 8873 9113 9053 8591 -282
2009-10 8965 9365 9265 8907 -58
2010-11 9071 9631 9491 9133 62
2011-12 9104 9824 9644 9228 124
2012-13 9084 9964 9744 9192 108
2013-14 9000 10040 9780 9106 106
2014-15 9034 10234 9934 9165 131
2015-16 9108 10468 10128 9143 35

[Arch]

blankcheck said:

Arch-give me a break. The district presented 3 projection models of which the lowest one seems to fit the bill. Say what you want facts are facts.

Yes, and the facts are that the high school population is INCREASING.

Low and behold, so did the middle school population. That's a FACT.

You are holding a FACTUAL number up against a GUESS, then complaining about a discrepancy. Drop the guess work, and deal with the FACTS.

[bob]

In the later years, we are above the NG model.

BC, what is the name of the marketing company that the SD used to send out the flyers with the students on it? Or was it 204TK?

[blankcheck]

If you compare enrollment figures the peak at the elementary level was in 2005 with 13,531 students. 2006 there were 13,434 now this year 13,245. That is a loss of 286 students at the elementary level since 2005.

Marketing firm - 204 the kids ..

[doctorwho]

blankcheck said:

If you compare enrollment figures the peak at the elementary level was in 2005 with 13,531 students. 2006 there were 13,434 now this year 13,245. That is a loss of 286 students at the elementary level since 2005.

Marketing firm - 204 the kids ..

204tk was a PAC - not a marketing firm by any stretch --

[blankcheck]

Where are you coming up with you "later year" figures? We are lower than their current enrollment model, enrollment is slowly declining at the elementary level, most of our elementary schools are operating under capasity and you expect me to believe that this is not a bubble going through our system?

[blankcheck]

Doc-many of the participants with 204the kids were involved with or work for marketing firms
ie: Carol Ann Marketing, Political Designs etc.

[Arch]

blankcheck said:

Where are you coming up with you "later year" figures? We are lower than their current enrollment model, enrollment is slowly declining at the elementary level, most of our elementary schools are operating under capasity and you expect me to believe that this is not a bubble going through our system?

Had you seen Gatordog's post about the K-8 schools that are online now that can explain the pulling away of students from 204? Do you know what their enrollment actually is and what they plan to do after 8th grade when their school no longer has anywhere else to go?

Please, address that conclusively first.

[momof3]

blankcheck said:

Doc-many of the participants with 204the kids were involved with or work for marketing firms
ie: Carol Ann Marketing, Political Designs etc.

The failed '05 ref had a PAC that was formed to pass that ref, too.
citizens for classrooms...?

CFO was a PAC formed to defeat the '05 and '06 refs. imo it's more a function of the fact that these are elections, it's political, wish it wasn't but that's how it goes, getting people out to the polls and voting

[Arch]

blankcheck said:

Doc-many of the participants with 204the kids were involved with or work for marketing firms
ie: Carol Ann Marketing, Political Designs etc.

PAC members are not allowed to have real jobs???

[doctorwho]

blankcheck said:

Doc-many of the participants with 204the kids were involved with or work for marketing firms
ie: Carol Ann Marketing, Political Designs etc.

and many were not -- but 204tk was a PAC not a marketing firm. I can't comment on any other contracts with people who may have been part of 204tk because I don't have enough knowledge of any of that to make a statement

[blankcheck]

Mom-getting people out to the polls to vote based on fact is one thing but getting them out to the polls to vote using stock photos of crowded schools and enrollment figures that as the article today are not panning out are two different things.

[casey]

In my recollection the SD paid an outside company (marketing company, consultant, educational facilitator - whatever you want to call it) to ensure that the Referendum passed. Yes, we paid $$$ to have a company come in and do whatever it took to get that Referendum passed. I remember seeing an article talking about the success such companies had at getting referendums passed. I will try to research and come up with a name but I assure you the services weren't free and this wasn't a parent volunteer group!

[momof3]

casey said:

In my recollection the SD paid an outside company (marketing company, consultant, educational facilitator - whatever you want to call it) to ensure that the Referendum passed. Yes, we paid $$$ to have a company come in and do whatever it took to get that Referendum passed. I remember seeing an article talking about the success such companies had at getting referendums passed. I will try to research and come up with a name but I assure you the services weren't free and this wasn't a parent volunteer group!

Hindsight is 20/20 but if that is true, then DANGIT why didn't we hire them in '05 - now that would have been money well spent! We'd have the property at 257/acre and be well on our way!