Post by gatormom on Oct 11, 2007 4:46:25 GMT -6
District 204 growth slows
Numbers renew debate over need for Metea
By Melissa Jenco
Daily Herald
Indian Prairie Unit District 204 enrollment is up this year but still lagging behind most projections, according to figures released by the district.
Officials say a housing slump temporarily is stalling the expected influx of students, but enough growth eventually will come to justify the need to build Metea Valley High School.
"We are all looking at the same numbers," board member Curt Bradshaw said Wednesday. "People arrive at different conclusions depending upon what they are (looking) for. Some people are solving for survival; the district is solving for success."
Critics, however, point to the numbers as evidence a third high school is not necessary in the district that serves portions of Naperville, Aurora, Plainfield and Bolingbrook.
"It's a lot of money for a problem that we don't have, nor can we substantiate long-term," school board member Christine Vickers said.
The district used three projection models when pushing for its 2006 tax increase to build Metea, which is planned to house 3,000 students.
One of those models assumes growth will stay the same for the next decade. The other two assume an increase of either 3,000 or 4,000 students over 10 years.
Overall enrollment is at 28,825 this year, up from 28,637. But the projections put it between 28,839 and 29,679.
At the elementary level, enrollment fell by 189 students, down to 13,245. Projections ranged from 13,416 to 13,896.
Middle school enrollments rose by 143 this year to 7,026, which falls between the projected range of 6,887 and 7,127.
In high school, enrollment went up by 268 students to 8,128. Despite the increase, it's far behind the district's estimates, which put it between 8,536 and 8,656.
In 2006, residents approved a $124.7 million referendum proposal for Metea. At the time, officials said they were confident high school enrollment would be between 10,200 and 10,500 in 10 years.
As part of its referendum campaign, the district said it intended to build Metea on 80 acres owned by the Brach-Brodie Trust off Route 59 in Aurora.
When negotiations for that site broke down, the district sought a trial to condemn the land. But the jury set a price that was $17 million more than the district wants to pay and now the school board is weighing other possible options for a site.
Although this year's enrollment is lower than expected, Bradshaw said 10 percent of the potential housing units in the district have yet to be developed. When they are, he said, it will cause the expected influx of students -- even if it didn't happen this year.
"Although the downturn in housing has caused growth for new students to halt, these new housing units will certainly be developed in the future," he said.
He expects high school enrollment to reach at least 9,200 students in about three years. With total capacity at 8,400 at Neuqua Valley and Waubonsie Valley high schools -- including freshman campuses but not the Frontier campus -- he said the need for a third high school is clear.
But some, including Vickers, are not convinced.
Vickers said she sees a maturation of the populations, a district that is nearly built-out and a slow housing market. She says all those factors point to enrollment not reaching projections now or in the future.
She added that the district's Frontier campus can hold 600 students to help relieve any crunch at the main high school campuses.
"I don't believe the numbers support the need," she said. "The bubble of students in the system, which have been there for some time now, is the plateau and the declines in elementary substantiate (those) three factors."
But Superintendent Stephen Daeschner said he wouldn't base his opinion on one year and pointed to several grade levels, such as fourth and sixth, that are among the highest the district has seen.
At the high school level, he said research shows the optimum size for a building is 1,800 students. Even with three high schools, there would be about 3,000 students at each.
In the meantime, he said current enrollment alone demonstrates a need for at least one more high school.
"Good God, we don't have any room," he said. "We can't be running high schools at 4,400 and 3,600 and that's what we do now."
District 204 enrollment
Indian Prairie Unit District 204 has released its official enrollment figures for 2007. Here's how they stack up against the numbers from past years:
Elementary 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Brookdale 481 468 523 522 499
Brooks 662 687 655 686 697
Builta 705 710 634 576 519
Clow 491 500 536 519 546
Cowlishaw 595 604 606 611 602
Fry 871 871 868 830 725
Georgetown 615 634 649 668 666
Gombert 528 501 497 474 496
Graham 666 724 696 705 743
Kendall 710 738 706 714 712
Longwood 477 458 414 394 404
McCarty 673 715 669 686 691
Owen 561 562 568 538 494
Patterson 745 772 783 843 862
Peterson 444 0 0 0 0
Spring Brook 667 682 760 757 820
Steck 663 705 735 747 755
Watts 538 527 534 567 560
Welch 833 878 920 892 858
Wheatland 0 349 345 352 332
White Eagle 579 606 647 656 654
Young 741 743 786 735 662
Total 13,245 13,434 13,531 13,472 13,297
Middle 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Crone 1194 1,204 1,163 1,137 1,075
Granger 1178 1,126 1,077 1,044 1,011
Gregory 1132 1,134 1,073 1,021 966
Hill 925 919 903 895 835
Scullen 1,447 1,363 1,299 1,231 1,174
Still 1,150 1,137 1,150 1,141 1,094
Total 7,026 6,883 6,665 6,469 6,185
High 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Neuqua 4,491 4,281 4,130 3,791 3,510
Waubonsie 3,691 3,633 3,487 3,324 3,156
Total 8,182 7,914 7,617 7,115 6,666
District totals 28,825 28,637 28,213 27,444 26,507
Numbers renew debate over need for Metea
By Melissa Jenco
Daily Herald
Indian Prairie Unit District 204 enrollment is up this year but still lagging behind most projections, according to figures released by the district.
Officials say a housing slump temporarily is stalling the expected influx of students, but enough growth eventually will come to justify the need to build Metea Valley High School.
"We are all looking at the same numbers," board member Curt Bradshaw said Wednesday. "People arrive at different conclusions depending upon what they are (looking) for. Some people are solving for survival; the district is solving for success."
Critics, however, point to the numbers as evidence a third high school is not necessary in the district that serves portions of Naperville, Aurora, Plainfield and Bolingbrook.
"It's a lot of money for a problem that we don't have, nor can we substantiate long-term," school board member Christine Vickers said.
The district used three projection models when pushing for its 2006 tax increase to build Metea, which is planned to house 3,000 students.
One of those models assumes growth will stay the same for the next decade. The other two assume an increase of either 3,000 or 4,000 students over 10 years.
Overall enrollment is at 28,825 this year, up from 28,637. But the projections put it between 28,839 and 29,679.
At the elementary level, enrollment fell by 189 students, down to 13,245. Projections ranged from 13,416 to 13,896.
Middle school enrollments rose by 143 this year to 7,026, which falls between the projected range of 6,887 and 7,127.
In high school, enrollment went up by 268 students to 8,128. Despite the increase, it's far behind the district's estimates, which put it between 8,536 and 8,656.
In 2006, residents approved a $124.7 million referendum proposal for Metea. At the time, officials said they were confident high school enrollment would be between 10,200 and 10,500 in 10 years.
As part of its referendum campaign, the district said it intended to build Metea on 80 acres owned by the Brach-Brodie Trust off Route 59 in Aurora.
When negotiations for that site broke down, the district sought a trial to condemn the land. But the jury set a price that was $17 million more than the district wants to pay and now the school board is weighing other possible options for a site.
Although this year's enrollment is lower than expected, Bradshaw said 10 percent of the potential housing units in the district have yet to be developed. When they are, he said, it will cause the expected influx of students -- even if it didn't happen this year.
"Although the downturn in housing has caused growth for new students to halt, these new housing units will certainly be developed in the future," he said.
He expects high school enrollment to reach at least 9,200 students in about three years. With total capacity at 8,400 at Neuqua Valley and Waubonsie Valley high schools -- including freshman campuses but not the Frontier campus -- he said the need for a third high school is clear.
But some, including Vickers, are not convinced.
Vickers said she sees a maturation of the populations, a district that is nearly built-out and a slow housing market. She says all those factors point to enrollment not reaching projections now or in the future.
She added that the district's Frontier campus can hold 600 students to help relieve any crunch at the main high school campuses.
"I don't believe the numbers support the need," she said. "The bubble of students in the system, which have been there for some time now, is the plateau and the declines in elementary substantiate (those) three factors."
But Superintendent Stephen Daeschner said he wouldn't base his opinion on one year and pointed to several grade levels, such as fourth and sixth, that are among the highest the district has seen.
At the high school level, he said research shows the optimum size for a building is 1,800 students. Even with three high schools, there would be about 3,000 students at each.
In the meantime, he said current enrollment alone demonstrates a need for at least one more high school.
"Good God, we don't have any room," he said. "We can't be running high schools at 4,400 and 3,600 and that's what we do now."
District 204 enrollment
Indian Prairie Unit District 204 has released its official enrollment figures for 2007. Here's how they stack up against the numbers from past years:
Elementary 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Brookdale 481 468 523 522 499
Brooks 662 687 655 686 697
Builta 705 710 634 576 519
Clow 491 500 536 519 546
Cowlishaw 595 604 606 611 602
Fry 871 871 868 830 725
Georgetown 615 634 649 668 666
Gombert 528 501 497 474 496
Graham 666 724 696 705 743
Kendall 710 738 706 714 712
Longwood 477 458 414 394 404
McCarty 673 715 669 686 691
Owen 561 562 568 538 494
Patterson 745 772 783 843 862
Peterson 444 0 0 0 0
Spring Brook 667 682 760 757 820
Steck 663 705 735 747 755
Watts 538 527 534 567 560
Welch 833 878 920 892 858
Wheatland 0 349 345 352 332
White Eagle 579 606 647 656 654
Young 741 743 786 735 662
Total 13,245 13,434 13,531 13,472 13,297
Middle 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Crone 1194 1,204 1,163 1,137 1,075
Granger 1178 1,126 1,077 1,044 1,011
Gregory 1132 1,134 1,073 1,021 966
Hill 925 919 903 895 835
Scullen 1,447 1,363 1,299 1,231 1,174
Still 1,150 1,137 1,150 1,141 1,094
Total 7,026 6,883 6,665 6,469 6,185
High 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Neuqua 4,491 4,281 4,130 3,791 3,510
Waubonsie 3,691 3,633 3,487 3,324 3,156
Total 8,182 7,914 7,617 7,115 6,666
District totals 28,825 28,637 28,213 27,444 26,507
It fits their certain point of view