|
|
Post by southsidemom on Aug 20, 2007 14:17:02 GMT -6
Does anyone think the SD's enrollment projections still stand with the housing market in a downturn? Should projections be recalculated based on vacancy rates? There are a lot of vacant houses for sale in my neighborhood and if the news is any indication, foreclosures are going to rise. I think it is somewhat of a neighborhood by neighborhood thing also - ours has no vacant houses and sales are still less than 30 days with new people moving in...across the street and 2 houses down, a house just turned over and netted up 3 school age kids..... I still think best to go with historical - as the last rate decrease just showed - unsure what feds will do with rates. Also if increase in foreclosures - people still need to live somewhere....might see movement from homes to apartments and an increase in children there, where they have forecasted a very low rate of children per unit. Still too early in this cycle to understand all the impacts... Since the market trends are considered unprecedented, what historical data do you suggest is valid? BTW: The mortgage company the district invited to its breakfast for local realtors to show off Waubonsie just gave pink slips to thousands of workers. Let me guess, the new boundaries have you going from Waubonsie to Metea?  |
|
|
|
Post by doctorwho on Aug 20, 2007 14:38:35 GMT -6
I think it is somewhat of a neighborhood by neighborhood thing also - ours has no vacant houses and sales are still less than 30 days with new people moving in...across the street and 2 houses down, a house just turned over and netted up 3 school age kids..... I still think best to go with historical - as the last rate decrease just showed - unsure what feds will do with rates. Also if increase in foreclosures - people still need to live somewhere....might see movement from homes to apartments and an increase in children there, where they have forecasted a very low rate of children per unit. Still too early in this cycle to understand all the impacts... Since the market trends are considered unprecedented, what historical data do you suggest is valid? BTW: The mortgage company the district invited to its breakfast for local realtors to show off Waubonsie just gave pink slips to thousands of workers. Let me guess, the new boundaries have you going from Waubonsie to Metea? I will answer this once more and only once more-- what exactly do you mean by the Waubonsie crack ? I have a Waubonsie Graduate and am a proud member of the Warrior family -- so explain again what the goal of your comment is with all the ? marks ? You may have a problem with Waubonsie Valley but I do not. I have already clearly stated that if the school is delayed ( and I still do not think it will be ) - I have no problem with the district waiting for BB even if my child does not attend the new school) -- I am not part of the group that says they will move if they have to go there, or that their neighbors are all moving now because they don't want to leave another school, or part of the real estate group that blames their poor sales on the high school -- DO NOT try and put me in that type of group -  Can you make the same comment ? Am I speculating on what your motives are ? This is the kind of BS that perpetuates some people's opinion's of WVHS -- well you won't tie me into that because that is not an issue for me. After attending VB camp this summer, my daughter is thrilled with the new coach at WV and has already told me she would like to play for her for 4 years -- and that could happen. She would get an excellent education as well as every other extra curricular activity that she desires in 204. What is your set up for the new boundaries ? What do you have 'on the line' as you seem to be insinuating here ? I have answered , now it is your turn. I have my name clearly marked with my school attendance area of May Watts - maybe you should do the same.  as far as historical - it is only historical for a very very short period of time-- if it continues then sure consideration is given, but do we do another calculation and if rates change again and housing upturns do it again? No, I think not. Also you chose to not respond to the portion where people have to live somewhere, if not in a house, then in an apartment. Currently the number of kids they 'predict' per apartment is extremely low - that would change, how would that be factored in ? |
|
|
|
Post by southsidemom on Aug 20, 2007 14:51:53 GMT -6
Since the market trends are considered unprecedented, what historical data do you suggest is valid? BTW: The mortgage company the district invited to its breakfast for local realtors to show off Waubonsie just gave pink slips to thousands of workers. Let me guess, the new boundaries have you going from Waubonsie to Metea? I will answer this once more and only once more-- what exactly do you mean by the Waubonsie crack ? I have a Waubonsie Graduate and am a proud member of the Warrior family -- so explain again what the goal of your comment is with all the ? marks ? You may have a problem with Waubonsie Valley but I do not. I have already clearly stated that if the school is delayed ( and I still do not think it will be ) - I have no problem with the district waiting for BB even if my child does not attend the new school) -- I am not part of the group that says they will move if they have to go there, or that their neighbors are all moving now because they don't want to leave another school, or part of the real estate group that blames their poor sales on the high school -- DO NOT try and put me in that type of group - Can you make the same comment ? Am I speculating on what your motives are ? This is the kind of BS that perpetuates some people's opinion's of WVHS -- well you won't tie me into that because that is not an issue for me. After attending VB camp this summer, my daughter is thrilled with the new coach at WV and has already told me she would like to play for her for 4 years -- and that could happen. She would get an excellent education as well as every other extra curricular activity that she desires in 204. What is your set up for the new boundaries ? What do you have 'on the line' as you seem to be insinuating here ? I have answered , now it is your turn. I have my name clearly marked with my school attendance area of May Watts - maybe you should do the same. as far as historical - it is only historical for a very very short period of time-- if it continues then sure consideration is given, but do we do another calculation and if rates change again and housing upturns do it again? No, I think not. Also you chose to not respond to the portion where people have to live somewhere, if not in a house, then in an apartment. Currently the number of kids they 'predict' per apartment is extremely low - that would change, how would that be factored in ? For the record, I am also the parent of a Waubonsie Grad....Oakhurst subdivision. No motive! Touchy touchy Doc.  |
|
|
|
Post by doctorwho on Aug 20, 2007 14:58:58 GMT -6
I will answer this once more and only once more-- what exactly do you mean by the Waubonsie crack ? I have a Waubonsie Graduate and am a proud member of the Warrior family -- so explain again what the goal of your comment is with all the ? marks ? You may have a problem with Waubonsie Valley but I do not. I have already clearly stated that if the school is delayed ( and I still do not think it will be ) - I have no problem with the district waiting for BB even if my child does not attend the new school) -- I am not part of the group that says they will move if they have to go there, or that their neighbors are all moving now because they don't want to leave another school, or part of the real estate group that blames their poor sales on the high school -- DO NOT try and put me in that type of group - Can you make the same comment ? Am I speculating on what your motives are ? This is the kind of BS that perpetuates some people's opinion's of WVHS -- well you won't tie me into that because that is not an issue for me. After attending VB camp this summer, my daughter is thrilled with the new coach at WV and has already told me she would like to play for her for 4 years -- and that could happen. She would get an excellent education as well as every other extra curricular activity that she desires in 204. What is your set up for the new boundaries ? What do you have 'on the line' as you seem to be insinuating here ? I have answered , now it is your turn. I have my name clearly marked with my school attendance area of May Watts - maybe you should do the same. as far as historical - it is only historical for a very very short period of time-- if it continues then sure consideration is given, but do we do another calculation and if rates change again and housing upturns do it again? No, I think not. Also you chose to not respond to the portion where people have to live somewhere, if not in a house, then in an apartment. Currently the number of kids they 'predict' per apartment is extremely low - that would change, how would that be factored in ? For the record, I am also the parent of a Waubonsie Grad....Oakhurst subdivision. No motive! Touchy touchy Doc. Read what you wrote and the exclamations to make your point -- you tell me how one would interpret ? So you are not moving to Matea, is that a problem ? ? Same kind of comment....how would you have taken that if I had sent it to you? It is just wrong on so many levels I am just tired of those kinds of comments - they really have no place in this district. |
|
|
|
Post by wvhsparent on Aug 20, 2007 15:11:04 GMT -6
Southside...that was a low blow to the Dr. on the WVHS remark, one I also take offense to. While Dr. Who and I don't see eye to eye on a few things, and they are relatively few. He has always stated he would be happy to have his kids go to any of the schools.
He also prefers BB, which I do not; but, like me knows we need the classroom space.
|
|
|
|
Post by southsidemom on Aug 20, 2007 15:36:56 GMT -6
Please explain...low blow?
|
|
|
|
Post by doctorwho on Aug 20, 2007 15:41:27 GMT -6
Please explain...low blow? please lets not be coy here.... "Let me guess, the new boundaries have you going from Waubonsie to Metea? " |
|
|
|
Post by doctorwho on Aug 20, 2007 15:44:35 GMT -6
Southside...that was a low blow to the Dr. on the WVHS remark, one I also take offense to. While Dr. Who and I don't see eye to eye on a few things, and they are relatively few. He has always stated he would be happy to have his kids go to any of the schools. He also prefers BB, which I do not; but, like me knows we need the classroom space. thanks WP -- like you I do not come here to find others in 100% agreement with me, and we certainly agree on far more than we don't ( BB vs. other sites likely the only main issue) -- and we both recognize a shot when we read one. |
|
|
|
Post by wvhsparent on Aug 20, 2007 15:50:12 GMT -6
Please explain...low blow? The way that comment was stated was, taken as derogatory to WVHS, which is how I interpreted it. If that is not what you meant. I'll accept it was a poor choice of words. Past Oakhurst resident here too....... |
|
|
|
Post by movingforward on Aug 20, 2007 16:40:05 GMT -6
Please explain...low blow? As an outside observer, I too found your comment unnecessary and borderline nasty. And then to claim Dr. over-reacted....please! |
|
|
|
Post by southsidemom on Aug 20, 2007 16:53:22 GMT -6
Please explain...low blow? please lets not be coy here.... "Let me guess, the new boundaries have you going from Waubonsie to Metea? " Your interpretation says a lot more than my question ever intended. I just wondered why you'd be in favor of using data that no longer seems relevant. My guess is projection enrollments did not factor in a downturn in the housing market. Your response along with WVHSParent's speaks volumes though. |
|
|
|
Post by doctorwho on Aug 20, 2007 17:43:31 GMT -6
please lets not be coy here.... "Let me guess, the new boundaries have you going from Waubonsie to Metea? " Your interpretation says a lot more than my question ever intended. I just wondered why you'd be in favor of using data that no longer seems relevant. My guess is projection enrollments did not factor in a downturn in the housing market. Your response along with WVHSParent's speaks volumes though. It speaks volumes all right - but about you not us--- if you believe that about WVparent and myself -- you said what you said and have yet to adequately explain why going to Matea over WV would be motivation for me or anyone else. --what exactly does that statement mean if not what most have interpreted it as ? -- here's your chance to explain why you chose to make that comment.----I explained why historical data should be used - very clearly - let's not confuse the issue here..... the comment was made and it is clear now why. I have other PM's about the comment also - but they don't want to jump into that discussion again - nothing productive can come out of it. |
|
|
|
Post by doctorwho on Aug 20, 2007 17:44:28 GMT -6
Please explain...low blow? As an outside observer, I too found your comment unnecessary and borderline nasty. And then to claim Dr. over-reacted....please! yes it does speak volumes.... |
|
|
|
Post by lacy on Aug 20, 2007 18:32:05 GMT -6
I think it is somewhat of a neighborhood by neighborhood thing also - ours has no vacant houses and sales are still less than 30 days with new people moving in...across the street and 2 houses down, a house just turned over and netted up 3 school age kids..... I still think best to go with historical - as the last rate decrease just showed - unsure what feds will do with rates. Also if increase in foreclosures - people still need to live somewhere....might see movement from homes to apartments and an increase in children there, where they have forecasted a very low rate of children per unit. Still too early in this cycle to understand all the impacts... Since the market trends are considered unprecedented, what historical data do you suggest is valid? BTW: The mortgage company the district invited to its breakfast for local realtors to show off Waubonsie just gave pink slips to thousands of workers. Let me guess, the new boundaries have you going from Waubonsie to Metea? Mom, I think you raise an important question (that no one seems to want to talk about). What are the enrollment numbers actually showing? Do they support the district's predictions, or are they less? And I wasn't offended by your last question. It seems highly likely to me that some people who want BB at all costs and subject to whatever delay have some sort of motive seperate from just wanting the district to move forward and build a third high school. That may explain the extreme hostility toward anyone who has different ideas. |
|
|
|
Post by bob on Aug 20, 2007 18:42:43 GMT -6
We will find out soon. We will see if the first graders have a huge bump like last years and see how the K class does.
FYI I think it was a 3% increase in 06. If we add 756 students a year for the next three years(last year's add) we will be at +30k students in 2009. Currently, we are at 27813.
I can't find the enrollment spreadsheet from the SD. Does anyone have a link?
|
|
