There is no room for Springbrook or Fry at 3rd HS

[proschool]

Today at 4:38pm, fence wrote:Hey ProSchool, I am REALLY having a hard time following what you guys are saying. How is Option 5 going to crowd the 3rd HS? Clearly if they plan to move Brookdale to the 3rd HS that makes a difference, but as it stands, what are the numbers based on the plans they presented? Also, is the overcrowding using capacity #s or 2-5 enrollment numbers?


I use capacity numbers because when the district gets crowded all the elementary schools will have to operate as close to there actual capacities as possible.


I guess I had some problem with my numbers so here it is again with corrected enrollment capacity numbers.

These are the enrollment capacities of the NV feeders that I proposed them in PSII Lite:

Builta (850), Kendall (850), Welch (950), Wheatland(450), Clow (650), Patterson (950), Fry (850) Springbrook (850)
Total=6400 or 38.90% of the district's 16,450 elementary seats.

Crone (1100), Scullen (1100), Gregory (900)
Total = 3100 or 42% of the district's middle school seats.

NV's capacity is 4200 or 41.17% of the district's high school seats.

Theses are the enrollment capacities of the 3rd HS feeders under PSII:

Cowlishaw (850), White Eagle (850), Owen (850), Watts(850), Longwood (450), Brookdale (650), Gombert (650)
Total = 5150 or 31.30 % of the district's 16450 elementary seats.

Still (1000), Hill (900)
total = 2000 or 27% of the districts 7300 middle school seats

3rd HS capacity = 3000 (proposed) or 29.41% of the district's high school seats

These are the enrollment capacities of the WV feeders under PSII:

Steck (850), Young (850), McCarty (850), Georgetown (650), Peterson (850), Brooks (850)
total = 4900 or 29.78% of the district's 16,450 elementary seats.

7th MS (1100), Granger (1100)
Total = 2200 or 30.13 % of the district's elementary seats.

WV capacity is 3000 or 29.41 % of the district's projected 10,200 high school seats.

The point of this is that when we have 2500+ students per grade level elementary enrollments can be at over 91% which is the point that elementary schools begin to become stressed. It seems logical to me that the feeder schools to each high schools would average about 91% capacity too. I don't think that you can run the the NV feeders at near 100% while other parts of the district are at 80 - 85%.


If you move Springbrook to the new school and leave Gombert at WV it looks like this:

NV feeders = 5550 student capacity
3rd HS feeders = 5350 capacity
WV feeders = 5500 capacity

That just splits them equally by three. But NV has the Freshman campus.

So in conclusion there are three choices:

Leave Springbrook and Fry at NV and make all necessary changes by reassigning subdivisions at the elementary level.

or

Move Springbrook of Fry and operate NV feeders at insane enrollment levels so that NV will be full in the end.

or

Move Springbrook of Fry to the third high school so that NV is comfortable at the end while WV and 3rd HS operate at insane enrollement levels.

[admin]

Fry has a got to be a 950 school current enrollment is 868.

[proschool]

admin said:

Fry has a got to be a 950 school current enrollment is 868.

Whatever. Okay 950. 100 more capacity feeding into NV at 91% capacity is 91 elementary students. That will tranlate into NV having 60 more students than WV. Good thing for that 1100 seat freshman center or they would be in trouble.

[admin]

Problems I have with this.

1) Are your capacity numbers correct? Where did you get them from? Watts and Owen are running in the 60% capacity and eight others in the 70% capacity with your numbers.
At 100% cap we are running at 3089 empty desks
At 93% 1923

2)Your assumption is that all schools are running at perfect 93% distribution, which is a pretty big assumption. If one school run at 96%, like Welch is now, and another 950 grade school not in NV runs at 90% then the extra NV has less seats and the other is running a surplus. You can also have a 93% capacity average but the distribution to get that 93% could be far and wide.

3) I am getting 16650 grade school seats and that is without Peterson that gives us 17500.

4)Finally,a 93% capacity is a 12% total increase in grade school population right now.


My numbers running every grade school at a perfect 93% distribution at every school.

NV 3906 WV 3565 including Peterson at 93% (empty right now) and the new HS at 3379. Remember this is with a perfect 93% distribution. for all grade schools.

Having a perfect distribution of 93% throughout every grade school in the district would cause total HS population to be 10,850 which is 600 higher than the SD prediction (which that is currently is running at a 200 student overestimation)

Also, if you keep Springbrook and Fry at NV using a 93% capacity with perfect distribution, NV would then have 4500 kids.

I have all of this laid out in a excel spreadsheet. If anyone would like to see it just PM me.

[proschool]

I see the problem in that I did not include Graham. Did a quick review and I still think that my conclusion is right.

Using your number of 10,200 school board prediction. That's 2550 per grade level or 15300 in 17300 seats or 88.43%.

With Springbrook and Fry saying put NV feeder elementary schools will be 7,250/17,300 or 41.9 % of the total elementary seats. NV has 4,200/10,200 or 41.17% of the high school seats. It should work out.

With a perfect 88.43 % distribution the 7250 feeder elementary seats into NV will generate 4274 high school seats which is about exactly what needs to feed into NV to avoid overcrowding the other two schools when there are 10,200 high school students.

If Wheatland closes NV attendance will have 6800/16850 or 40.35% of the elementary seats. There will be 15,300/16850 or 90.80% of capacity at the elementary level. 6800 seats will generate an expected 4116 high school students at NV.

The exact distribution in the future is unknown but the goal has always been to keep elementary schools at below 90% of capacity. When elementary school surpass 90% capacity they us usually wind up loosing music and art rooms because it it impossible to distribute the grade levels equally.

My approach assumes that the district will be successful in distributing elementary students fairly. There are no guarantees one way or the other.

Bottom line is that if Fry or Springbrook are moved they may just have to move back in the future.

[admin]

A couple more corrections from my side

A rise to 93% perfectly ditributed from our current enrollemnt is a 20% increase from what we have, right now.

13561 current enrollment 16275 93% perfect enrollment with Peterson

Adding Peterson to the overall mix of empty seats in the SD

right now there are 4000 empty seats if full 100%
at 93% 2734 empty seat

The SD counting Peterson is running at 77.68%.

The reason why the new Hs looks overcrowded underthis scenaario is that there are the most empty seats. Leaving out Peterson , this HS has biggest differance between current enrollment and 93% enrollement (934 empty seats). This is because of the hug gap in 3 school alone: Colishaw, Watts and Owen (850 total capacity and running at about 70% fill) I have a filling all 3 are not 850 seat schools.

Finally, I don't you can evenly distribute the kids. Right now Welch is running at 97% while Watts is running at 62%.

I really think some of these 100% capacity are wrong which would throw Pro's whole model off.

[fence]

Well what are the numbers under Option 5? I thought that's what you said would overcrowd the 3rd HS if either Springbrook/Fry were added. You can't say they'd be overcrowded adding Fry to ProSchool because Option 5 is different than ProSchool.

Also, my concern would be that you have the three schools with the lowest enrollment of the entire district (Owen, Watts, Cowlishaw) at the 3rd HS, and then project it be overcrowded by using 100% capacity. Enrollment at these schools is so under capacity it would take moving boundaries for these areas to get them at 100%.

Not to mention leaving NV at 4200 when people are saying its crowded today. Enrollment is 4107 today. You just have to move more than 1 elementary out of NV or what is the whole point of even building the new school?

[Arch]

Just to toss it out onto the table:

Are you taking into account supported education areas that exist today in the elementary level that are not really 'backfillable' with normal 'capacity'?

Is that also part of the 7-10% you are leaving as a buffer?

I ask because @ Watts, there are at least 4 classrooms devoted to this today that would make it 'appear' to be operating at 80-120 under 'capacity'. The real number may be higher.

[admin]

Fence, I have all these numbers current, 93% and 100% all on a nice spreadsheet. It is really nice thing to play around with.

All numbers are based on total capacity of the schools.


BTW, I want to thank Pro for bringing this possibility up. It was a great learning experience for me.

[proschool]

admin said:

Fence, I have all these numbers current, 93% and 100% all on a nice spreadsheet. It is really nice thing to play around with.

All numbers are based on total capacity of the schools.


BTW, I want to thank Pro for bringing this possibility up. It was a great learning experience for me.

Thank you.

[wvhsparent]

Pro and Topher...You make the world's bean counters proud.
You guys did all that great work on your own......something the SB and Admin should have done and presented in the same fashion. If they had many people might have a better feeling that they are actually doing their jobs.
I will have to buy you both a drink at the Fox&Hound to re-lube all those brain cells.