Post by warriordiva on Feb 24, 2008 12:01:25 GMT -6
As housing boom stalls, suburban schools seek students to fill buildings
Housing slowdown puts damper on districts' plans
By Alexa Aguilar | Tribune reporter
February 24, 2008
The single-level elementary school nearing completion in Oswego was going to serve the hundreds of young families expected to flock to the nearby Hunt Club subdivision in search of bigger houses for fewer dollars.
So far, though, only one elementary school-age child has moved into the development off Laughton Road. Construction has started on fewer than 20 homes, and only a few families have moved into the two-story houses clumped near the entrance of the development. Nearby, paved roads loop through empty fields.
That's not what Oswego School District 308 leaders envisioned when they pitched a $450 million tax referendum proposal to voters in November 2006 and won approval for 14 new buildings, four of which have been built.
"The numbers in our district were crazy just a few years ago, just exponential growth," Oswego parent Melissa Hinshaw said. "It doesn't take an expert to see that when you drive around the neighborhoods now, it's completely different. The bottom fell out of the market."
That sharp reversal hasn't just hit buyers, sellers and real estate agents. In the outlying Chicago suburbs, where catapulting growth translated into annual increases of hundreds of students for years, the lackluster market has driven school boards and administrators back to the drawing board.
They're putting building plans on hold, redrawing district boundaries or trying to figure out what to do with the newly built schools they no longer need.
Taxpayers who approved millions in construction funds are upset, questioning how enrollment predictions could have been so far off and vowing that they won't be so easily persuaded next time.
"On one hand, taxpayers have a right to be upset if schools are built for students who aren't there," said Jack Pfingston, a senior analyst for the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning. "But they'll also be mad if the schools are out of space."
Pfingston said he empathized with district officials. "They walk a precarious line," he said.
Because it can take years to pass a referendum proposal and another few years to build, school districts work with timelines that require planning for at least five years in the future. But the unexpected downturn in the last few years has proved how critical it is that administrators constantly re-evaluate enrollment projections, said Steve Larson, financial adviser for Ehlers and Associates, a consulting firm that tracks growth for some districts.
"You have to evaluate yearly," said Larson, whose firm looks at everything from employment and birth rates to the number of housing permits issued. "You can't assume that the projection made two years ago will hold."
That's the case in Carpentersville-based District 300, which just a few years ago could count on an average of 500 additional students annually, nearly enough to fill an elementary school every year. In 2006, voters approved a construction plan for multiple new schools after consultants estimated that the district would add as many as 9,000 students by 2016.
Now, though, any additional building is on hold. A new high school and two new elementary schools have been built, but the rest can wait, district officials said.
"If anybody had told us that we were going to hit this lull, we would have said, 'Where is this coming from?'" Assistant Supt. Chuck Bumbales said. "Show us an article, an indicator that it was going to tank."
The district hired Larson's firm in the middle of the building boom to conduct long-term growth studies. The firm typically reports high-, medium- and low-growth scenarios; the district used the high-growth scenario when it put the referendum proposal to voters.
Eighteen months later, the numbers haven't materialized.
"The students are still coming," Bumbales said. "They are just coming a little slower."
Jack Roeser, chairman of the Family Taxpayers Network, which opposed the referendum campaign, isn't convinced. Taxpayers shouldn't be on the hook for gloom-and-doom projections, he said.
"The figures are all over the place," Roeser said. "In reality, the numbers are never what they say they are going to be."
Kaneland District 302 made its own projections, with short-term outlooks. Voters there approved a new middle school this month, after district leaders said the current middle school is already 40 percent over capacity.
"It's the unpredictability and volatility that is going on that is making districts take another look," Supt. Charles McCormick said. "What will happen if this housing slowdown continues year after year?"
Hunt Club may not open next fall, because there aren't enough students and district officials are attempting to reshuffle boundaries. A junior high on the district's south side where hundreds of planned homes never were built also should stay shuttered, the superintendent recommended this month.
The district's boundary committee also is suggesting that the district break ground on another new middle school for the district's west side, where more students live, now that land has become available.
That's a plan many Oswego taxpayers say they can't support.
"I would never support another referendum" if the school board goes through with the plan," Oswego parent Lisa Udy said. "It would be such a flagrant abuse of our tax dollars."
"They guessed wrong," Oswego parent Kevin Dombkowski said. "That part we can forgive, but they have to play the hand they have been dealt and use the assets they already have."
District leaders say that in some ways, they appreciate the breathing room the slowdown allows. After years of trying to keep up, they now have time to plan long-term.
"We would open a new school, and it would be near capacity," Bumbales said. "Now, we have some time."
During the respite, officials are trying to devise solutions for the buildings that are underutilized.
In Burlington-based Central Unit District 301, district leaders are leasing empty classrooms. In March 2006, voters approved a proposal to build two new schools and an addition to the high school.
One of those, Country Trails Elementary, opened this year at half-capacity. The district decided to lease 11 empty classrooms across the district to a deaf and hard of hearing program, Supt. Brad Hawk said. The district receives about $200,000 annually for the lease.
Hawk said he keeps tracks monthly of housing permits issued in the Elgin area. Last year, housing permits in the Elgin area that feeds District 301, were down from 600 to slightly fewer than 300, Hawk said.
With so much undeveloped land, Hawk thinks the growth will return. But as in many of his neighboring districts, major construction is on hold until that happens.
"There is so much land available," District 308 Assistant Supt. Kristopher Monn said. "When will it turn around? Really, it's a guessing game."
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aaguilar@tribune.com
Interesting article in the Tribune today - wonder if anyone on the 204 SB will read it and start to think a little more clearly?
Housing slowdown puts damper on districts' plans
By Alexa Aguilar | Tribune reporter
February 24, 2008
The single-level elementary school nearing completion in Oswego was going to serve the hundreds of young families expected to flock to the nearby Hunt Club subdivision in search of bigger houses for fewer dollars.
So far, though, only one elementary school-age child has moved into the development off Laughton Road. Construction has started on fewer than 20 homes, and only a few families have moved into the two-story houses clumped near the entrance of the development. Nearby, paved roads loop through empty fields.
That's not what Oswego School District 308 leaders envisioned when they pitched a $450 million tax referendum proposal to voters in November 2006 and won approval for 14 new buildings, four of which have been built.
"The numbers in our district were crazy just a few years ago, just exponential growth," Oswego parent Melissa Hinshaw said. "It doesn't take an expert to see that when you drive around the neighborhoods now, it's completely different. The bottom fell out of the market."
That sharp reversal hasn't just hit buyers, sellers and real estate agents. In the outlying Chicago suburbs, where catapulting growth translated into annual increases of hundreds of students for years, the lackluster market has driven school boards and administrators back to the drawing board.
They're putting building plans on hold, redrawing district boundaries or trying to figure out what to do with the newly built schools they no longer need.
Taxpayers who approved millions in construction funds are upset, questioning how enrollment predictions could have been so far off and vowing that they won't be so easily persuaded next time.
"On one hand, taxpayers have a right to be upset if schools are built for students who aren't there," said Jack Pfingston, a senior analyst for the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning. "But they'll also be mad if the schools are out of space."
Pfingston said he empathized with district officials. "They walk a precarious line," he said.
Because it can take years to pass a referendum proposal and another few years to build, school districts work with timelines that require planning for at least five years in the future. But the unexpected downturn in the last few years has proved how critical it is that administrators constantly re-evaluate enrollment projections, said Steve Larson, financial adviser for Ehlers and Associates, a consulting firm that tracks growth for some districts.
"You have to evaluate yearly," said Larson, whose firm looks at everything from employment and birth rates to the number of housing permits issued. "You can't assume that the projection made two years ago will hold."
That's the case in Carpentersville-based District 300, which just a few years ago could count on an average of 500 additional students annually, nearly enough to fill an elementary school every year. In 2006, voters approved a construction plan for multiple new schools after consultants estimated that the district would add as many as 9,000 students by 2016.
Now, though, any additional building is on hold. A new high school and two new elementary schools have been built, but the rest can wait, district officials said.
"If anybody had told us that we were going to hit this lull, we would have said, 'Where is this coming from?'" Assistant Supt. Chuck Bumbales said. "Show us an article, an indicator that it was going to tank."
The district hired Larson's firm in the middle of the building boom to conduct long-term growth studies. The firm typically reports high-, medium- and low-growth scenarios; the district used the high-growth scenario when it put the referendum proposal to voters.
Eighteen months later, the numbers haven't materialized.
"The students are still coming," Bumbales said. "They are just coming a little slower."
Jack Roeser, chairman of the Family Taxpayers Network, which opposed the referendum campaign, isn't convinced. Taxpayers shouldn't be on the hook for gloom-and-doom projections, he said.
"The figures are all over the place," Roeser said. "In reality, the numbers are never what they say they are going to be."
Kaneland District 302 made its own projections, with short-term outlooks. Voters there approved a new middle school this month, after district leaders said the current middle school is already 40 percent over capacity.
"It's the unpredictability and volatility that is going on that is making districts take another look," Supt. Charles McCormick said. "What will happen if this housing slowdown continues year after year?"
Hunt Club may not open next fall, because there aren't enough students and district officials are attempting to reshuffle boundaries. A junior high on the district's south side where hundreds of planned homes never were built also should stay shuttered, the superintendent recommended this month.
The district's boundary committee also is suggesting that the district break ground on another new middle school for the district's west side, where more students live, now that land has become available.
That's a plan many Oswego taxpayers say they can't support.
"I would never support another referendum" if the school board goes through with the plan," Oswego parent Lisa Udy said. "It would be such a flagrant abuse of our tax dollars."
"They guessed wrong," Oswego parent Kevin Dombkowski said. "That part we can forgive, but they have to play the hand they have been dealt and use the assets they already have."
District leaders say that in some ways, they appreciate the breathing room the slowdown allows. After years of trying to keep up, they now have time to plan long-term.
"We would open a new school, and it would be near capacity," Bumbales said. "Now, we have some time."
During the respite, officials are trying to devise solutions for the buildings that are underutilized.
In Burlington-based Central Unit District 301, district leaders are leasing empty classrooms. In March 2006, voters approved a proposal to build two new schools and an addition to the high school.
One of those, Country Trails Elementary, opened this year at half-capacity. The district decided to lease 11 empty classrooms across the district to a deaf and hard of hearing program, Supt. Brad Hawk said. The district receives about $200,000 annually for the lease.
Hawk said he keeps tracks monthly of housing permits issued in the Elgin area. Last year, housing permits in the Elgin area that feeds District 301, were down from 600 to slightly fewer than 300, Hawk said.
With so much undeveloped land, Hawk thinks the growth will return. But as in many of his neighboring districts, major construction is on hold until that happens.
"There is so much land available," District 308 Assistant Supt. Kristopher Monn said. "When will it turn around? Really, it's a guessing game."
-----------
aaguilar@tribune.com
Interesting article in the Tribune today - wonder if anyone on the 204 SB will read it and start to think a little more clearly?
