Post by macrockett on Jul 15, 2010 22:08:58 GMT -6
Most recent minutes of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee. Prepare for the long haul to return to normal. Three things that stand out, according to Leisman at CNBC, were modest wages gains due to slack in the labor force, tough for stock multiples to expand in a slow growth economy (there it is again ...8% returns?) and established companies will be winners with less competition.
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/fomcminutes20100623.pdf
Overall, participants continued to expect the pace of the economic recovery to be held back by a number of factors, including household and business uncertainty, persistent weakness in real estate markets, only gradual improvement in labor market conditions, waning fiscal stimulus, and slow easing of credit conditions in the banking sector.
Participants generally anticipated that, in light of the severity of the economic downturn, it would take some time for the economy to converge fully to its longer run path as characterized by sustainable rates of output growth, unemployment, and inflation consistent with participants’ interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s dual objectives; most expected the convergence process to take no more than five to six years.
About one-half of the participants now judged the risks to the growth outlook to be tilted to the downside, while most continued to see balanced risks surrounding their inflation projections. participants generally continued to judge the uncertainty surrounding their projections for both economic activity and inflation to be unusually high relative to historical norms.
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/fomcminutes20100623.pdf
Overall, participants continued to expect the pace of the economic recovery to be held back by a number of factors, including household and business uncertainty, persistent weakness in real estate markets, only gradual improvement in labor market conditions, waning fiscal stimulus, and slow easing of credit conditions in the banking sector.
Participants generally anticipated that, in light of the severity of the economic downturn, it would take some time for the economy to converge fully to its longer run path as characterized by sustainable rates of output growth, unemployment, and inflation consistent with participants’ interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s dual objectives; most expected the convergence process to take no more than five to six years.
About one-half of the participants now judged the risks to the growth outlook to be tilted to the downside, while most continued to see balanced risks surrounding their inflation projections. participants generally continued to judge the uncertainty surrounding their projections for both economic activity and inflation to be unusually high relative to historical norms.