enrollment graphs

[blankcheck]

The % increase is less with more facilities opening. We already know that there is room at the elementary level with Peterson not opening - that right there is 850 seats. THey do not need to move the preschool they choose to. What will they do with the open space at the district education center?

[stinks]

BC - You are seeing a gradual decline in the increase in enrollment. You are not seeing a decline in the enrollment.

[cantretirehere]

admin said:

Where do you see a declining enrollment?

1st grade
99-00 2052
00-01 2258
01-02 2266
02-03 2192
03-04 2189
04-05 2316
05-06 2251

2251 is less than 2316 (one year ago) = decline
2251 is less than 2266 and 2258 (four and five years ago) = decline

Naperville as a whole (I don’t know about Aurora) has been a relatively transient city. About 10 years ago the average stay in Naperville was 3 years. Now it is 4. This most likely means a turnover in kids and not an aging community. But there is the hint that perhaps the transient nature of this city is decreasing. This is a great city to live in and perhaps more people will be staying put here and down the road we will see less transience and more aging. This should be watched.

No one really knows if our district enrollment numbers will ever decline to the point of not needing a 3rd high school. The grade 1-5 (K is historically an unreliable number) numbers for the last few years may indicate the start of a sustained (perhaps indefinite) plateau. This is occurring while building is still taking place. And, as you can tell from the spreadsheet, there is a definite decline in the rate of growth. Yes, yes, there is still growth but it is going DOWN. The numbers may indicate a plateau that will decline after build out. We don’t really know. We would have to look at similar communities and start making assumptions. The graphs and spreadsheets that I posted at the top of this thread are just based on the district’s enrollment facts. NO assumptions were made. They are what they are.


I put those graphs and the spreadsheet out there so people can see what is going on during the crucial years of this district’s enrollment. There are no assumptions made and therefore can be no arguing on whether they are being interpreted correctly. Those viewing the numbers can make their own assumptions. I didn’t put them out there as a sway for the NO or the YES vote. I put them out there so the numbers can be viewed from a different angle. I thought we were all interested in absorbing as much info as possible before the referendum.
CRH

[driven]

Thank you CRH for your hard work on these graphs. I definitely appreciate it.

However, I am more confused than ever. My vote has gone from leaning to NO, to leaning to YES, back to leaning to NO.

Your graphs and an $11million empty building put the lean back to NO.

I thank you also for giving information without propaganda supporting your agenda for YES or NO. It helps us all make our own decisions based on numbers and NOT emotion.

[admin]

Good points.


I do believe Peterson will be filled eventually. It might not be with 800k houses but housing will be built there .

ETA: I still believe that instead of 20k for a survey they could have done a census on kids under 6 in the SD. It would have given clearer picture.

[stinks]

I still think the overall trend is upwards. And, you drop the housing prices a little, I think you'll find as Topher has said, people will fill up the subdivision and the schools. It just seems to me that houses don't sit around too terribly long (although I have seen a few $1M ones sit for a while).

Until buildout is complete, I don't want to just guess as to what the numbers may be. It seems that there is enough data there now to support a 3d HS anyway, without all the extra potential houses.

[Arch]

I know of one sitting for sale in Buttonwood for 7 months now... West Winds has another that's been on the market for almost a year too. Another down the street finally sold after being on the market for 6 months. There's overall far far less demand than there was and I believe this is only the beginning for this area for a while.

[admin]

I am not famaliar with those areas. I wonder how much of this whole referendum fight has affected 204 housing sales.

My area just picked up. Four house just went up and I will be interested on how they sell.

[204parent]

driven,
You should take a drive (no pun intended) down to Peterson and look around the area. There's no question that school will be needed. The land was donated by the developer, and the State kicked in some money from a School Construction program that is no longer in existence (see link below).

I think they had to build it when they did.

www.ipsd.org/Uploads/IPPC_IPPC%20Legislative%20Update%201-06.doc

[driven]

I have "driven" that area many times. When the area does reach buildout maybe the school will be needed. Will Wheatland be closed then?

I just feel that this is another example (additions started at new schools within a year, Scullen portables after 3 short years) of poor planning and poor timing on the SB's part.

Maybe that money should have been used to alleviate the MS overcrowding first, a much more pressing issue. From what I read in the link above provided by 204parent the Grant money could have been used to that affect.

[stinks]

archwinsome said:

I know of one sitting for sale in Buttonwood for 7 months now... West Winds has another that's been on the market for almost a year too. Another down the street finally sold after being on the market for 6 months. There's overall far far less demand than there was and I believe this is only the beginning for this area for a while.

I think the $1M+ houses are difficult. On the other hand, houses in the $450K-$500K range (which is median for Naperville now I think) seem to be unabated in their pace of sales as far as I can see. I've seen two houses go up for sale and get sold in less than a week. One was a for sale by owner ($480K I think) and another was through a Realtor ($534K I think). This was in Buttonwood and Countryside.

In this area, the houes that are selling with no problems are the ones that have been updated. The ones sitting around are the 20+ year old houses that haven't had anything done to them. There's a lot of those, although I see quite a bit of construction going on around here. 20 years or so must be the threshold for needing updating.

[Arch]

When it comes time to do new furnaces, ac's, hot water heaters, roofs, siding, etc a lot of people just move to a newer house instead. Countryside/Buttonwood is *FULL* of homes hitting that threshold.

[warriorpride]

driven said:

I have "driven" that area many times. When the area does reach buildout maybe the school will be needed. Will Wheatland be closed then?

I just feel that this is another example (additions started at new schools within a year, Scullen portables after 3 short years) of poor planning and poor timing on the SB's part.

Maybe that money should have been used to alleviate the MS overcrowding first, a much more pressing issue. From what I read in the link above provided by 204parent the Grant money could have been used to that affect.

The referedum is actually adressing real, not perceived, as well as projected overcrowding at the MS AND HS levels. The MSs and HSs are getting crowded now and they will be getting more crowded over the next few years. Nobody can argue with the numbers.

We can all guess at how long the enrollment numbers will sustain, but even with no new homes and no new kids, there's overcrowding on the horizon. And if some of the projections are even close, there will be severe overcrowding soon, without a 3rd HS and the conversion of WV Gold to an MS.

[driven]

warriorpride said:

driven said:

I have "driven" that area many times. When the area does reach buildout maybe the school will be needed. Will Wheatland be closed then?

I just feel that this is another example (additions started at new schools within a year, Scullen portables after 3 short years) of poor planning and poor timing on the SB's part.

Maybe that money should have been used to alleviate the MS overcrowding first, a much more pressing issue. From what I read in the link above provided by 204parent the Grant money could have been used to that affect.

The referedum is actually adressing real, not perceived, as well as projected overcrowding at the MS AND HS levels. The MSs and HSs are getting crowded now and they will be getting more crowded over the next few years. Nobody can argue with the numbers.

We can all guess at how long the enrollment numbers will sustain, but even with no new homes and no new kids, there's overcrowding on the horizon. And if some of the projections are even close, there will be severe overcrowding soon, without a 3rd HS and the conversion of WV Gold to an MS.

Scullen has portables now. No one is questioning the overcrowding. The issue is whether we need a $124million solution.

Had Peterson been opening I might not have been questioning their projections as much.

[JB]

archwinsome said:

I know of one sitting for sale in Buttonwood for 7 months now... West Winds has another that's been on the market for almost a year too. Another down the street finally sold after being on the market for 6 months. There's overall far far less demand than there was and I believe this is only the beginning for this area for a while.

Around my house (Watts), theres a FSBO that's been around for awhile, but another that went in 2 days. Do we have any realtors here? They're the ones with the data. I should probably check my junk mail pile, there seems to be a realtor data sheet every week or so.