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Post by cantretirehere on Feb 15, 2006 11:39:27 GMT -6
I used the district's enrollment history data to create an excel graph of each of the grades from K through 5. There seems to be a flattening out. Here is the 1st grade graph. I started the graphs with 1993 cuz that is the year that this year's Srs were in Kindergarten.  |
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Post by cantretirehere on Feb 15, 2006 11:41:43 GMT -6
The 2nd grade graph:  |
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Post by cantretirehere on Feb 15, 2006 11:42:31 GMT -6
The 3rd grade graph:  |
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Post by cantretirehere on Feb 15, 2006 11:43:14 GMT -6
The 4th grade graph:  |
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Post by cantretirehere on Feb 15, 2006 11:44:02 GMT -6
The 5th grade graph:  |
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Post by cantretirehere on Feb 15, 2006 11:45:01 GMT -6
And the Kinder graph:  |
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Post by cantretirehere on Feb 15, 2006 12:09:03 GMT -6
I wanted to see how much each “snapshot” of kids in grades 1-4 in a given year had grown by the time they had reached high school. I wanted to see if that growth has been sustained, increased or decreased. The spread sheet on the left (below) shows the enrollment levels of grades 1-4 for a given year. On the right is the actual high school enrollment for those classes. So, during the 1988-89 school year there were 2338 kids in grades 1-4 in the district. When that group of kids grew up and were in high school during the 1996-97 school year, there were 3453 of them. If you look at the column called “Difference” you will see that their numbers grew by 1115 between the time they were in 1st-4th grade to the time they were all in high school. This was a 48% increase in enrollment for that group of kids. This increase in enrollment hit its peak in the 1999-2000 school year. When those kids were in 1st -4th grades (1991-1992) there were 3143 of them. Their numbers increased by 52% by the time that group of kids were all in high school. The percentages in the %increase column shows: Given the enrollment numbers of a group of kids in grades 1-4 and comparing it to the enrollment number of the same group of kids 8 years later when they are in high school, the percent difference in the enrollment numbers. These increases would be due to people, who had kids in that age group, moving into the district during those 8 years.  You will notice that every year since 1999-00, the percentage of increase in enrollment from 1-4 till HS has gone down. This year there was a 19% increase in enrollment from the time when this year’s Freshman-Senior group of kids was in 1-4 grades. The green square shows what the next four year’s high school enrollment would be given the number of students currently enrolled in the system. You can see there are still positive increases in enrollment from the time each 1-4 group of kids gets to HS. Those percentages can be expected to be somewhat higher than what is currently shown, as our district has not yet reached build out. However, since the district has a limited amount of land left to build on and for the past 6 years you can see that the percent differences in enrollment for each 4 year group of kids has decreased and enrollment seems to be leveling out per the graphs I have posted above, we can ASSume that the growth explosion in our district is definitely slowing down considerably. |
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Post by 204parent on Feb 15, 2006 13:11:20 GMT -6
We're starting to ease into the same long plateau that district 203 is in.  |
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Post by cantretirehere on Feb 15, 2006 13:32:13 GMT -6
So why are we getting our panties in a knot?
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Post by wvhsparent on Feb 15, 2006 13:59:40 GMT -6
I wanted to see how much each “snapshot” of kids in grades 1-4 in a given year had grown by the time they had reached high school. I wanted to see if that growth has been sustained, increased or decreased. The spread sheet on the left (below) shows the enrollment levels of grades 1-4 for a given year. On the right is the actual high school enrollment for those classes. So, during the 1988-89 school year there were 2338 kids in grades 1-4 in the district. When that group of kids grew up and were in high school during the 1996-97 school year, there were 3453 of them. If you look at the column called “Difference” you will see that their numbers grew by 1115 between the time they were in 1st-4th grade to the time they were all in high school. This was a 48% increase in enrollment for that group of kids. This increase in enrollment hit its peak in the 1999-2000 school year. When those kids were in 1st -4th grades (1991-1992) there were 3143 of them. Their numbers increased by 52% by the time that group of kids were all in high school. The percentages in the %increase column shows: Given the enrollment numbers of a group of kids in grades 1-4 and comparing it to the enrollment number of the same group of kids 8 years later when they are in high school, the percent difference in the enrollment numbers. These increases would be due to people, who had kids in that age group, moving into the district during those 8 years. You will notice that every year since 1999-00, the percentage of increase in enrollment from 1-4 till HS has gone down. This year there was a 19% increase in enrollment from the time when this year’s Freshman-Senior group of kids was in 1-4 grades. The green square shows what the next four year’s high school enrollment would be given the number of students currently enrolled in the system. You can see there are still positive increases in enrollment from the time each 1-4 group of kids gets to HS. Those percentages can be expected to be somewhat higher than what is currently shown, as our district has not yet reached build out. However, since the district has a limited amount of land left to build on and for the past 6 years you can see that the percent differences in enrollment for each 4 year group of kids has decreased and enrollment seems to be leveling out per the graphs I have posted above, we can ASSume that the growth explosion in our district is definitely slowing down considerably. How are you coming up with your Difference column? |
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Post by 204parent on Feb 15, 2006 14:14:01 GMT -6
So why are we getting our panties in a knot? The current HS enrollment is 7,617. With the kids currently in the system, current class sizes are about 2,300, so HS enrollment will be about 9,200 without any further growth. Since you can see on the graph that enrollment is still slowly increasing (just like 203), we need more space. Don't forget, we also need more MS space. |
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Post by cantretirehere on Feb 15, 2006 14:41:18 GMT -6
How are you coming up with your Difference column? I am taking the enrollment of one school year's grades 1 through 4 and subtracting it from that group of kids' high school enrollment amounts. The Difference will be how much the enrollment of that "snapshot" of kids grew in the 8 years from elem school to HS. |
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Post by JB on Feb 15, 2006 14:41:53 GMT -6
CRH,
I understand the spreadsheet logic up to 2005-2006. How did you calculate the numbers in the green box?
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Post by cantretirehere on Feb 15, 2006 14:50:56 GMT -6
CRH, I understand the spreadsheet logic up to 2005-2006. How did you calculate the numbers in the green box? Read the last paragraph of my post. I used the district's current enrollment figures for those classes. Not sure what you're asking for. |
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Post by 204parent on Feb 15, 2006 15:02:51 GMT -6
CRH, I understand the spreadsheet logic up to 2005-2006. How did you calculate the numbers in the green box? Read the last paragraph of my post. I used the district's current enrollment figures for those classes. Not sure what you're asking for. So the %increase for each class takes into account the growth of each class from when they were in 1st grade through this year. It doesn't take into account any growth in these classes for future years, so the %increase is a little low. |
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