|
|
Post by macrockett on Jan 9, 2012 13:57:03 GMT -6
Illinois will need to restructure public employee benefits soon, or face bankruptcy. I used to think they court not alter the pensions for this already in the system, but now I am seeing clear evidence that they need to make significant changes not only to those pending retirement, but (ack) those already in it :-( it unfortunately is just a completely unsustainable, self-imploding model currently. Unfortunately States cannot declare bankruptcy, but there is an open question about insolvency Eagledad. After all, if the State tries to extract even more from the people of Illinois there could well be sufficient flight that the Courts would be forced to change the contract. There is however clear evidence that the Court could change the existing contract (as reflected in the IL constitution) going forward. Sidley Austin and 4 other heavy weight law firms all agree on that point (you can see that discussion in the teacher pension, etc. thread. However that will not change until there is a change in leadership in IL as the Dems understand that their meal ticket is the public sector unions. But then you would need an electorate that decides to wake up.... |
|
|
|
Post by macrockett on Jan 9, 2012 14:03:55 GMT -6
This is what happens when arrogant world leaders think they can have it all and then attempt to "manage" market forces to deal with their excesses. You must not mean US Mac, as lord knows their's no "World Leader" around in America these days. Our leadership was abdicated a few years back, Yes, an oversight on my part. That abdication began in the thirties based on my calculation and accelerated in the late 60s. Now, given our Senate cannot even figure out how to structure a balanced budget, let alone pass one, I look for more of the same. |
|
|
|
Post by macrockett on Jan 10, 2012 23:14:07 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by southsidesignmaker on Jan 11, 2012 9:22:42 GMT -6
No worries here Big Mac, the state has dropped to second worst (a 50% improvement), both of us still live in one of the "best cities in the country"... C'mon now stress some positive news this year!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by macrockett on Jan 11, 2012 22:03:56 GMT -6
No worries here Big Mac, the state has dropped to second worst (a 50% improvement), both of us still live in one of the "best cities in the country"... C'mon now stress some positive news this year!!! Sorry SSSM, I don't do "spin." For things to improve those in denial have to accept there are serious problems. Without acceptance and action, there is no resolution. You go ahead with the fluff and spin. I will stick with the facts and what materially impacts our lives. |
|
|
|
Post by southsidesignmaker on Jan 12, 2012 9:29:27 GMT -6
Big Mac,
Not terrible interested in spin either. On the other hand I am not part of the camp that the world economy will crashing down on our heads any time soon. Debt by historical standards is high and for states like our own there will be changes in store.
On the local level I see homes starting to be built again on the south side and folks starting to let "lose the purse strings". With a record amount of ca$$$$h sitting on the sidelines I suspect it is only a matter of time before folks start investing in earnest again.
Local eating establishments, auto dealers, and retail in general is starting to experience a bit of optimistic spending on the part of local consumers.
Big Mac life will indeed go on, our schools will indeed operate at the high level that many in the community expect. Referendums will come and go, and the world we reside in will carry on just fine. Of course the baby boom generation is in for a rude awakening as their lack of planning is now going to have a major impact on the quality of life they have become accustom to. This will be one angry group once they start to retire in earnest.
|
|
|
|
Post by macrockett on Jan 12, 2012 22:59:46 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by macrockett on Jan 12, 2012 23:55:57 GMT -6
Big Mac, Not terrible interested in spin either. On the other hand I am not part of the camp that the world economy will crashing down on our heads any time soon. Debt by historical standards is high and for states like our own there will be changes in store. On the local level I see homes starting to be built again on the south side and folks starting to let "lose the purse strings". With a record amount of ca$$$$h sitting on the sidelines I suspect it is only a matter of time before folks start investing in earnest again. Local eating establishments, auto dealers, and retail in general is starting to experience a bit of optimistic spending on the part of local consumers. Big Mac life will indeed go on, our schools will indeed operate at the high level that many in the community expect. Referendums will come and go, and the world we reside in will carry on just fine. Of course the baby boom generation is in for a rude awakening as their lack of planning is now going to have a major impact on the quality of life they have become accustom to. This will be one angry group once they start to retire in earnest. I imagine they said the same thing in many of the European countries SSSM. Unfortunately it didn't quite turn out that way. Nor will it here. Look me up in 10 years and let me know if you feel the same way. There have been trends in place for 30 years that are now beginning to reaching critical mass. Exponential if you will. When they reach that critical level things happen pretty fast thereafter. See the Albert Bartlett videos on you tube that i refer to all the time. www.google.com/search?q=albert+bartlett+youtube&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-aThen consider the following: Medicare (estimates of 36+ trillion underfunded) , thehill.com/blogs/healthwatch/medicare/167973-lawmakers-arm-themselves-with-dueling-medicare-estimatessame with Medicaid (federal and State) and SS (estimated 2 trillion short), as well as government agencies imploding (USPS, FNM, FRE, Amtrak, PBGC, and so on), 15 trillion Federal debt (over 3x that of 2000 and will grow to 20 trillion by 2015 per CBO) www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/108xx/doc10871/01-26-Outlook.pdfState and local unfunded pensions estimated at over $1 trillion and up to $3 trillion (see the Pew Report and others) while, at the same time, actuarial assumptions are unattainable without excessive risk because fixed income returns are next to nothing, www.pewcenteronthestates.org/uploadedFiles/Pew_pensions_retiree_benefits.pdfmikekleinonline.com/2011/05/06/cbo-state-and-local-government-pension-liabilities-could-be-3-trillion/www.statebudgetsolutions.org/doclib/20110304_StatePensionLiabilityMarch4.pdfState debt and unfunded liabilities estimated at over 4 trillion www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/24/us-usa-states-debt-idUSTRE79N5RX20111024retirement of the boomers, about 10 thousand a month DAY! for 19 years , Student loans over 1 trillion now, seekingalpha.com/article/314168-the-student-debt-bubbledebt to net worth still near all time highs, even after the write off of a ton of debt (see the quarterly Flow of Funds Report by the Fed) www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1.pdfsee also econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/08/household-debt-to-net-worth-ratio.htmland see money.msn.com/debt-management/article.aspx?post=3ec2264a-3bbe-4609-bac5-9b62cac73b44over 44 million on food stamps www.dailyjobsupdate.com/public/food-stamps-chartsunprecedented high unemployment in 16-24 year olds www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/30/youth-jobless-rate-hit-a-_n_698948.htmlestimated low GDP for years to come per many financial firms who are in the position to know (Read Reinhart and Rogoff) www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-14/too-much-debt-means-economy-can-t-grow-commentary-by-reinhart-and-rogoff.htmla record number of HHs that pay no federal income taxes and receive a record number of forms of assistance (see that video above) www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/04/17/nearly-half-households-pay-income-tax-feds/and a like amount receive some sort of government aid blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/10/05/nearly-half-of-households-receive-some-government-benefit/ Critical mass... meet the United States The sad thing is I could keep going with this data. I study and live it every day. |
|
|
|
Post by macrockett on Jan 13, 2012 10:45:12 GMT -6
no longer imminent www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/13/us-france-rating-idUSTRE80C19W20120113Standard & Poor's ratings agency has downgraded France's credit rating, French television channels reported on Friday, citing a government source. blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/01/13/the-fall-of-france/The fall of France
January 13, 2012, 11:20 AMWith reports circulating of imminent downgrades of France and Austria, the euro eurusd -1.09% is falling hard. But the effects of any downgrade may prove counter-intuitive, given that a one-notch cut in France’s rating has been widely telegraphed. As Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer told Reuters, a downgrade “may irritate markets in the short term but wouldn’t be a big problem in a world where the U.S. and Japan also don’t have a triple-A rating anymore. Triple-A is a dying species.” How the S&P list of triple-A rated countries could look at the end of the day: Switzerland AAA Sweden AAA Singapore AAA Liechtenstein AAA Luxembourg AAA Netherlands AAA Norway AAA Canada AAA Australia AAA Austria AAA France AAA Finland AAA Denmark AAA Germany AAA Hong Kong AAA United Kingdom AAA |
|
|
|
Post by EagleDad on Jan 13, 2012 20:02:23 GMT -6
Not just France Mac, they hit 9 late market (before the weekend as they did to the US this fall): finance.yahoo.com/news/p-downgrades-france-eight-other-002752207.htmlI am holing out hope that euro markets will bear the brunt but the US will be the bellwether, given our recent backbone. I guess we'll find out Monday how fragile our economy really is. Should be interesting. Personally, I wish someone would downgrade S&P's penchant for sensationalism. |
|
|
|
Post by macrockett on Jan 16, 2012 6:43:22 GMT -6
Not just France Mac, they hit 9 late market (before the weekend as they did to the US this fall): finance.yahoo.com/news/p-downgrades-france-eight-other-002752207.htmlI am holing out hope that euro markets will bear the brunt but the US will be the bellwether, given our recent backbone. I guess we'll find out Monday how fragile our economy really is. Should be interesting. Personally, I wish someone would downgrade S&P's penchant for sensationalism. S&P is only the messenger ED, you know that. They are telling the people what the markets have already told them (in terms of interest rates on the sovereign debt). Here is an interview with Kyle Bass that took place on 11-15-2011 courtesy of the BBC. It is about 19 minutes long. It is very insightful: electstevemueller.com/hardtalk-kyle-bass-1-of-2-on-the-global-economy-finance-situation-bbc-interview.htmlAt around the 16th minute Bass discusses Japan. He talks about their interest cost (on their sovereign debt) as a percentage of their GDP, now at roughly 50% when their rates are very low. Apply that to the United States, which certainly isn't in the exact situation as Japan. However, if you substitute all of the entitlements we have, i.e., the unfunded liabilities associated with them, you can see we are in much the same situation as Japan. Any significant increase in interest rates would be disastrous as we already borrow 40c on the dollar to keep all of these lies going. In addition, we are creating 1000s of GMs in our State and local government systems. GM, in the final analysis, was brought down not only by lousy management, but by business model that could no longer be sustained. They were being eaten alive by their cost structure and legacy costs. That is exactly what is happening in our State and local governments. The cost to run these governments is now, or soon will be, more than the private sector can sustain. IMO, the manifestation of that is the debt and unfunded liabilities that are piling up across the U.S. And we are at ground zero in Illinois. |
|
|
|
Post by macrockett on Jan 24, 2012 15:12:58 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by macrockett on Feb 1, 2012 21:32:11 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by macrockett on Feb 15, 2012 22:30:00 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by macrockett on Feb 16, 2012 9:24:29 GMT -6
If you have never heard of ZeroHedge, I recommend it highly for economic analysis. It is usually real time as well. See the dicussion on housing starts and permits. Not exactly the leading indicator you might think.
Tyler Durden's picture
"Lost In Construction" - Relative Difference Between Housing Starts And Completions Hits Record
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/16/2012 - 10:16 Housing Market Housing Starts
While one can discuss seasonal factors, such as abnormally warm weather, as a driver of today's beat in Housing Starts, a far less noted number for headline purposes is the other side of the equation - Housing Completions. Because after all, every house that is started has to be completed at some point. One look at the chart below, shows why completions is quietly ignored, as it presents a far less optimistic picture about the housing market. Indeed, printing at 530k seasonally adjusted annualized units, the completions number was just the second lowest in decades, better only than the 509K from January 2011. And where this becomes rather glaring is when looking at the relative, or percentage, spread between Starts and Completions: at 31.9%, this was the highest in, well, as far as our data series goes back to. Does this mean that homebuilders are merely "breaking ground" for book keeping purposes, just to "paint the tape" and then quietly fading away into the night? We will know for sure in February when we get at least one more data print to validate or deny the recent troubling trend, but for the time being, to paraphrase a famous Bill Murray movie, is there something here being "lost in construction?" Or, far more simply, is this merely the latest ploy to paint not the tape so much as the economy in an election year with the latest incarnation of "cash for clunking construction"?
|
|
