The Real Attendance- 6 days in

[doctorwho]

rew- per your request - new thread

winsome.cnchost.com/204/2010-6thdayer.pdf

total HS population 9077 of which 509 is in Frontier - total in 3 school 8568
( hmmm where is that elusive BS 10400 ?)

K 1889
1 2112
2 2064
3 2168
4 2287
5 2391
6 2301
7 2335
8 2240


WVHS 2855 of which 897 are seniors (81 Frontier)
MVHS 1863
NVHS 4228 ( 428 Frontier) 1158 seniors

[rew]

I have the old handouts...

The pre 06 referendum projections for

MS for the 2010-2011 school year were

1) currently enrolled - projected = 6750
2) high growth model - projected = 7350
3) low growth model - projected =7200

actual = 6876 current capacity(90%utilization) = 7380

HS projections for 2010-2011 were

1) curently enrolled - projected = 9071
2) high growth model - projected = 9631
3) low growth model - projected = 9491

actual = 8946 current capacity(90%) utilization = 9180(main campuses) + 650(Frontier campus) = 9830

In addition:
MS projections for 2015

1)current enrollment - projected = 6873
2)high growth model - projected= 8073
3) low growth model - projectied = 7773

HS projections for 2015

1) current enrollment projected = 9108
2) high growth projected = 10468
3) low growth projected = 10128

[rew]

Additionally the ES numbers vs the projected used for boundaries:

school name 90% capacity vs current vs projected +/- % util
BROOKDALE / 585 vs 522 vs 525 -63 89%
BROOKS / 765 vs 675 vs 700 -25 88%
BUILTA / 765 vs 483 vs 1075 -285 63%
CLOW / 585 vs 427 vs 525 -158 80%
COWLISHAW / 765 vs 726 vs 650 -39 95%
FRY / 855 vs 798 vs 900 -57 93%
GEORGETOWN / 650 vs 617 vs 680 -33 95%
GOMBERT / 585 vs 490 vs 500 -95 83%
GRAHAM / 765 vs 547 vs 725 -218 71%
KENDALL / 765 vs 603 vs 900 -162 78%
LONGWOOD / 425 vs 468 vs 475 +46 110%
McCARTY / 765 vs 623 vs 625 -142 82%
OWEN / 765 vs 536 vs 565 -229 70%
PATTERSON / 855 vs 648 vs 825 -81 90%
PETERSON / 765 vs 457 vs 950 -308 59%
SPRINGBROOK / 855 vs 774 vs 750 -81 90%
STECK / 765 vs 656 vs 750 -109 85%
WATTS / 765 vs 604 vs 675 -161 79%
WELCH / 855 vs 852 vs 950 -3 99%
WHITE EAGLE / 765 vs 531 vs 650 -234 70%
YOUNG / 765 vs 838 vs 750 +73 109%

how do I put this in a pretty table so you can look at it?

[doctorwho]

Sept 12, 2010 11:21:45 GMT -6 rew said:

I have the old handouts...

The pre 06 referendum projections for

MS for the 2010-2011 school year were

1) currently enrolled - projected = 6750
2) high growth model - projected = 7350
3) low growth model - projected =7200

actual = 6876 current capacity(90%utilization) = 7380

HS projections for 2010-2011 were

1) curently enrolled - projected = 9071
2) high growth model - projected = 9631
3) low growth model - projected = 9491

actual = 8946 current capacity(90%) utilization = 9180(main campuses) + 650(Frontier campus) = 9830

In addition:
MS projections for 2015

1)current enrollment - projected = 6873
2)high growth model - projected= 8073
3) low growth model - projectied = 7773

HS projections for 2015

1) current enrollment projected = 9108
2) high growth projected = 10468
3) low growth projected = 10128

HS projections for 2015

1) current enrollment projected = 9108
2) high growth projected = 10468
3) low growth projected = 10128


and people bought - and many still believe this total line of bull crap

Heck they are still telling the Herald there will be 3000 students in Metea Valley next fall-- some of you better hope that's not what they're meeting on right now... nothing would surprise me

[gatordog]

Sept 12, 2010 11:48:21 GMT -6 rew said:

Additionally the ES numbers .....

thanks everybody for posting enrollment report. (rew, i will PM you this table setup FYI)

Using these ES numbers, we can feed-foward to predict what each future HS enrollment likely will be (with no growth). Use real numbers, 5th grade through K.

For the split ESs I divide them like this:
Owen 70% MV, 30% WV
Gombert 80% WV, 20% MV
Peterson 85% NV, 15% WV.
I am fairly confident of the first two, less so for Peterson.

sch yr 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

MV 2839 2859 2864

WV 2657 2584 2477

NV 3379 3158 2885

Looking at these numbers, I see no need to worry about HS boundary adjustments for a long long time. Specifically, I dont think any further students need to be added to the MV attendance area.

[macrockett]

Sept 13, 2010 12:16:28 GMT -6 gatordog said:

Sept 12, 2010 11:48:21 GMT -6 rew said:

Additionally the ES numbers .....

thanks everybody for posting enrollment report. (rew, i will PM you this table setup FYI)

Using these ES numbers, we can feed-foward to predict what each future HS enrollment likely will be (with no growth). Use real numbers, 5th grade through K.

For the split ESs I divide them like this:
Owen 70% MV, 30% WV
Gombert 80% WV, 20% MV
Peterson 85% NV, 15% WV.
I am fairly confident of the first two, less so for Peterson.

sch yr 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

MV 2839 2859 2864

WV 2657 2584 2477

NV 3379 3158 2885

Looking at these numbers, I see no need to worry about HS boundary adjustments for a long long time. Specifically, I dont think any further students need to be added to the MV attendance area.

Nothing new here Gatordog. We spent $140million + on a 3000 seat HS at $50k per seat. We could have added on as the people in the community preferred.

Now we have around 1000 seats that will never be needed for a maximum 10 year bubble in enrollment. Then we are back to FY 09 enrollment levels in 2019 with at least $60million in additional principal debt and interest payments of about $35m over a 20 year amortization period on those bonds. Nice job.

[doctorwho]

Sept 13, 2010 12:32:10 GMT -6 macrockett said:

Sept 13, 2010 12:16:28 GMT -6 gatordog said:

thanks everybody for posting enrollment report. (rew, i will PM you this table setup FYI)

Using these ES numbers, we can feed-foward to predict what each future HS enrollment likely will be (with no growth). Use real numbers, 5th grade through K.

For the split ESs I divide them like this:
Owen 70% MV, 30% WV
Gombert 80% WV, 20% MV
Peterson 85% NV, 15% WV.
I am fairly confident of the first two, less so for Peterson.

sch yr 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

MV 2839 2859 2864

WV 2657 2584 2477

NV 3379 3158 2885

Looking at these numbers, I see no need to worry about HS boundary adjustments for a long long time. Specifically, I dont think any further students need to be added to the MV attendance area.

Nothing new here Gatordog. We spent $140million + on a 3000 seat HS at $50k per seat. We could have added on as the people in the community preferred.

Now we have around 1000 seats that will never be needed for a maximum 10 year bubble in enrollment. Then we are back to FY 09 enrollment levels in 2019 with at least $60million in additional principal debt and interest payments of about $35m over a 20 year amortization period on those bonds. Nice job.

and of course we will then have yet another empty building as we sure as hell no longer need the freshman center @ NV with 2800 students--and just think if Frontier still running..

maybe you can return May Watts to somewhere in their zip code then so the kids aren't getting up at 5 freakin 30 in the morning for that 6:20 bus -- ridiculous..but then that's OUR problem isn't it ?

but hey, we got the shiny new school over the triple header San Bruno style pipelines..what a deal.

[rew]

I think "long term" boundaries needs to go the way of "buy and hold". The school district is a big consumer of our taxes, we need efficienct building utilization.

The SB shifted White Eagle out of WVHS and then shifted them back ten yrs later. If it's no big deal, then it's no big deal, right?They are more than willing to split siblings etc.

Time to stop making silly promises of long term anything, and stop buying portables for overcrowded schools when you have capacity elsewhere.

[rew]

What the school district should say is..."in August you'll get your school assignment in the mail"

[doctorwho]

Sept 13, 2010 19:28:29 GMT -6 rew said:

I think "long term" boundaries needs to go the way of "buy and hold". The school district is a big consumer of our taxes, we need efficienct building utilization.

The SB shifted White Eagle out of WVHS and then shifted them back ten yrs later. If it's no big deal, then it's no big deal, right?They are more than willing to split siblings etc.

Time to stop making silly promises of long term anything, and stop buying portables for overcrowded schools when you have capacity elsewhere.

Time to stop making silly promises of long term anything, and stop buying portables for overcrowded schools when you have capacity elsewhere.

now this is a very true statement- because that is a waste of money as either the bubble passes or else you move others to open space..and then tell them to sit down and shut up like some were told this time

[gatordog]

I thought this was interesting from this yrs enrollment report. (no new conclusion here that hasnt been discussed.. But this newest data still shows this to very much be the case):

WV and MV combined Freshman class totals 1301.

1st graders in WV and MV feeder schools total at least 1381.
(ignores the part of Peterson that goes to WV)

For these two HS areas, there are more 1st graders in the school system than current freshmen

For NV, Freshman class totals 1014
And 1st graders in NV feeder schools total about 666.

Yes, this has been said before....but here is another way to pretty clearly see: for a large part of the district, there is no enrollment 'bubble'. But there are no doubt enrollment bubble issues for a parts of district. We will need to plan the future accordingly.

[Arch]

The reality is that HS enrollment has to be looked at in 4 year windows. When those first graders are freshmen, the total HS enrollment is 8641; assuming no one moves away as the economy tanks further and taxes continue to go higher. The enrollment for current grades 4->7 = 9341.

9341-8641 = 673 (roughly 30% the size of the 1st grade class you are looking at) That's significant enough to be called a bubble.

[southsidesignmaker]

Arch, Many of the folks moving away will be the folks with receding or graying hair. In our neck of the woods all the homes are designed for those with non arthritic limbs. 4 bedroom homes with all bedrooms on second floor do little for the idea of aging in place.

I suspect a whole new younger generation will populate our subdivision once the "over 50 crowd", gets used to the idea of home ownership... a depreciating asset.

[rew]

I just read a very different take...this report said many boomers will be staying put in their big homes longer because of the depreciated values...at least til home prices recover?? Which the same article "claimed" could be at least ten years. Nothing's a given and basically one guess is as good as the next.

[Arch]

SSSM,

Where are all these jobs coming from for the younger whipper snappers to be able to afford the homes and the taxes that come with it. People are retiring later in life with little to no nest egg except for the roof over their heads and many are having problems keeping that going too.