Post by wvhsparent on Aug 18, 2006 7:27:54 GMT -6
Study: Dist. 203 enrollment heading for long-term decline
By Melissa Jenco
Daily Herald Staff Writer
Posted Wednesday, August 16, 2006
Naperville Unit District 203’s enrollment is projected to continue declining for at least the next 12 years, though not as much as the district expected, according to a demographic study.
Demographer John Kasarda from the University of North Carolina, told the school board Tuesday he projects the district will drop from 18,693 students last year to 16,734 in 2017-2018.
His projections will guide the district’s facilities committee in the coming months as it formulates a plan for addressing school renovations.
“This is your future,” Kasarda said. “The students, their numbers and their composition are going to shape many, many decisions with respect to your future facility and staff needs.”
Architectural consultants last year studied all 21 schools in the district and found roughly $57 million in physical improvements that will be needed over the next 10 years as well as $9.2 million in recommended enhancements and $24.7 million in possible improvements.
Space is one of the main concerns in many of the district’s schools, especially Naperville Central High School and Mill Street Elementary.
Kasarda found that the district’s enrollment peaked in 2002-2003 at 19,020 students.
He said the driving force behind the recent decline is due to having fewer incoming kindergarten students than exiting 12th grade students. The area is maturing, with the fastest growing population being 50- to 54-year-olds.
His study projects enrollment by grade at each elementary school through 2010-2011 and for the junior highs and high schools through 2017-2018.
The projections are based on assumptions about future fertility rates and the number of students expected to enter the district from new housing development, turnover or teardowns/rebuilds. The most significant of these factors, he said, will be the housing turnover.
At Central, the demographic study found that if conditions occur as anticipated, the school’s population will rise from 3,087 last year to 3,101 this fall then decline annually to 2,554 in 2016-2017, followed by a slight increase the following year.
Mill Street’s enrollment, currently at 807 students, is expected to fluctuate over the next five years with a peak of 836 students in 2008-2009.
Kasarda said the district is also becoming more ethnically diverse. The English Language Learner program is projected to increase by almost 130 students over the next five years.
Some members of the school board and facilities committee expressed concern over the accuracy of projections in terms of teardowns, special education students and the effects of fluctuations in interest rates, taxes and other economic conditions.
“We don’t, as I say in the conclusion, have a crystal ball,” Kasarda said. “We can use our best professional techniques and our best professional judgment to generate the series of projections for the district and the individual schools, total students and English Language Learner.”
The facilities committee will take the study under consideration and present a plan to the school board in November.
By Melissa Jenco
Daily Herald Staff Writer
Posted Wednesday, August 16, 2006
Naperville Unit District 203’s enrollment is projected to continue declining for at least the next 12 years, though not as much as the district expected, according to a demographic study.
Demographer John Kasarda from the University of North Carolina, told the school board Tuesday he projects the district will drop from 18,693 students last year to 16,734 in 2017-2018.
His projections will guide the district’s facilities committee in the coming months as it formulates a plan for addressing school renovations.
“This is your future,” Kasarda said. “The students, their numbers and their composition are going to shape many, many decisions with respect to your future facility and staff needs.”
Architectural consultants last year studied all 21 schools in the district and found roughly $57 million in physical improvements that will be needed over the next 10 years as well as $9.2 million in recommended enhancements and $24.7 million in possible improvements.
Space is one of the main concerns in many of the district’s schools, especially Naperville Central High School and Mill Street Elementary.
Kasarda found that the district’s enrollment peaked in 2002-2003 at 19,020 students.
He said the driving force behind the recent decline is due to having fewer incoming kindergarten students than exiting 12th grade students. The area is maturing, with the fastest growing population being 50- to 54-year-olds.
His study projects enrollment by grade at each elementary school through 2010-2011 and for the junior highs and high schools through 2017-2018.
The projections are based on assumptions about future fertility rates and the number of students expected to enter the district from new housing development, turnover or teardowns/rebuilds. The most significant of these factors, he said, will be the housing turnover.
At Central, the demographic study found that if conditions occur as anticipated, the school’s population will rise from 3,087 last year to 3,101 this fall then decline annually to 2,554 in 2016-2017, followed by a slight increase the following year.
Mill Street’s enrollment, currently at 807 students, is expected to fluctuate over the next five years with a peak of 836 students in 2008-2009.
Kasarda said the district is also becoming more ethnically diverse. The English Language Learner program is projected to increase by almost 130 students over the next five years.
Some members of the school board and facilities committee expressed concern over the accuracy of projections in terms of teardowns, special education students and the effects of fluctuations in interest rates, taxes and other economic conditions.
“We don’t, as I say in the conclusion, have a crystal ball,” Kasarda said. “We can use our best professional techniques and our best professional judgment to generate the series of projections for the district and the individual schools, total students and English Language Learner.”
The facilities committee will take the study under consideration and present a plan to the school board in November.