You be the Pundit

[admin]

3? there is no Peterson and Peterson was never at NV in the first place.

[stinks]

No, what I mean is that during the SB meeting Glawe was saying that 3 needed to be movesd out of NV. You've been maintaining that only 2 needs to be moved.

[admin]

I bet he was including Peterson or they moved 3 but they always move back in Gombert.

[proschool]

I was expecting over 3000 students at the third high school with Springbrrok but without Gombert. I don't think that there is room for the 3rd high school for Fry or Springbrook.

[proschool]

Projected HS enrollment =10,200 or 2550 per grade level.
Elementary enrollment at 2550 per grade level = 15,300
total elementary seats = 16,400
Peak elementary enrollment compared to capacity=93%
Capacities of Cowlishaw (850), Brookdale (450) Longwood(450) Watts(850)Owen(850) Gombert(650)=4950 or 825 per grade level.
anticipated enrollment of 3rd hs when elementary schools are running at 93% capacity=3069
Capacities of elementary schools when Springbrook or Fry is added = 5800 or 966 per grade level.
Anticipated high school enrolment at 3rd Hs when elementary schools are at 93% capacity=3596
maximum percentage of capacity at elementary feeder schools to avoid overcrowding third HS if Fry or Springbrook are added = 77.6%

Still working on this...

[admin]

Final enrollment # using 2nd through 5th

New HS 2762
NV 3762
WV 2657

These number have McCarthy at WVHS don't know the split.
Keeping Springbrook at NV, switch Fry then NV +17
Keeping Brookdale at WV, switch with Gombert WV -12

[admin]

Each can easily take a 10% increase which puts the total over 10k.

[proschool]

admin said:

Final enrollment # using 2nd through 5th

New HS 2762
NV 3762
WV 2657

These number have McCarthy at WVHS don't know the split.
Keeping Springbrook at NV, switch Fry then NV +17
Keeping Brookdale at WV, switch with Gombert WV -12

Move Brookdale to 3rd. That will pretty much filled up the 3rd HS without Springbrook or Fry.You cannot assume that Peterson will stay at 0%. It does not matter where the 2nd - 5th enrollment is now because when elementary enrollemnts are at 93% of total capacity elementary students are going to be whereveer you can fit them. The assumptions that the SB is using will not work when the schools are crowded.

[proschool]

admin said:

Each can easily take a 10% increase which puts the total over 10k.

Except the seats are at Peterson.

[admin]

But the SB will close Wheatland or they planned to close Wheatland when they built Peterson.

Also with Peterson at WV, who actually knows what the growth rate will be there. Their worst case scenario happened.

[proschool]

Projected HS enrollment =10,200 or 2550 per grade level.
Elementary enrollment at 2550 per grade level = 15,300
total elementary seats = 16,400
Peak elementary enrollment compared to capacity=93%
Capacities of Cowlishaw (850), Brookdale (450) Longwood(450) Watts(850)Owen(850) Gombert(650)=4950 or 825 per grade level.
anticipated enrollment of 3rd hs when elementary schools are running at 93% capacity=3069
Capacities of elementary schools when Springbrook or Fry is added = 5800 or 966 per grade level.
Anticipated high school enrollment at 3rd HS when elementary schools are at 93% capacity=3596
maximum percentage of capacity at elementary feeder schools to avoid overcrowding third HS if Fry or Springbrook are added = 77.6%

Still working on this...

...To carry on.

enrollment capacities of Builta850, Graham850, Wheatland450, Clow650, Patterson950, Welch 950, Springbrook or fry 850 and Kendall=6400 or 1066 per grade level.
Percentage of capacity that elementary schools in NV attendance area will have to operate to fill NV without overcrowding it=98.5%
Odds of getting away with operating NV schools at 98.5% while 3rd hs elementary schools are being operated at 77.6% = 0%

Bottom line is that neither Fry nor Springbrook can leave NV.


...and on

Closing Wheatland will only make this look worse. Keep in mind that we are doing this to prepare for the heavy enrollment.

My point is to keep Springbrook and Fry where they are because then they will be happy and in a few years we won't be in position that we have to move them back. What if they don't want to leave (gasp).

If I am wrong they can always be moved later.

Keep in mind NV is only 10 years old and when it opened there was only clow, Wheatland and White Eagle from what I hear. Peterson may be filled before the high school is even finished.

[admin]

The enrollment trends seem pretty mixed. Only three grade schools at the new HS have shown growth from 5th to 2nd grades: Longwood, Fry, and Owen.

You can't put both at NV that would put 4300 kids at NV and 2200 at the new HS.

[admin]

So you are willing to fill the new HS at 2200 in 2013 when the current 2-5 is in HS are in HS?

[admin]

Also you have Brookdale and Gombert at the new HS. It is either one or the other but not both.

[proschool]

admin said:

So you are willing to fill the new HS at 2200 in 2013 when the current 2-5 is in HS are in HS?

Something needs to be done at the elementary level. If you don't want NV that crowded you don't want the elementary schools that crowded either.

360 seats can be opened up in the south right now by moving students out of Welch. That will free up 240 high school seats. Your numbers are also looking at a few Peterson students. So present 2nd-5th would leave us with less than 4100 at NV.

As I have said, Once we reach the enrollemt levels we are expecting all three haigh schools will be running at 100% and elementary students will need to be placed wherever we can find room to store them. Running Builta at 1075 and Peterson at 600 as the SB suggested does not seam feasable to me.

In the meantime, is Peterson has empty seats the school that Peterson feed into will also have some empty seats. Filling those seats with studenst from somewhere else will be a temporary arrangement becasue peterson will fill up becasue that is its destiny. If you move someone in from NV it would have to be with the understanding that they will have to move back to NV when thiings start getting crowded up north.
Where can we find a volunteer for that?

To any extent the empty seats will be at WVHS not the 3rd HS. the 3rd HS will be overcrowded before it is ebven opened without Springbrook of Fry.





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