204TheKids.org Weekly Update

[admin]

Arch, what are you really expecting from the K class. A drop of 300 kids? The next class doesn't matter as single determining point. What if the class comes in at 2500 then what? What if the 2007 K class is then 2100.

The average first grade class is 2245 since 2000-1.
The second grades class is avg 2271 since 01-02
The third grade class is avg 2278 since 02-03.

[warriorpride]

The other observation that I'll throw out is that my heighborhood (4-5 year old homes, all 4 bedroom) has a number of homes with married couples with no kids. I know that some couples may never have kids, but some/many will. Are these potential kids taken into account in any estimates?

[Arch]

warriorpride said:

Arch, Are you suggesting that there is some threshold of actual (as opposed to projected) enrollment numbers that would convince you and/or others to vote YES? If so, what is that number?

There's always a threshold that will make me change my mind. That's why I'm hanging around and not out handing out VoteNo stickers/signs or telling people they need to vote No too.

My threshold is a combination of things:

enrollment increasing/decreasing trends.
new house starts.
new house sales and the types of people buying them.
pace of home sales (existing and new).
age stats, # of kids stats, types of homes going in.
hiring/letting go of good paying jobs in the area that will determine if someone can actually afford to move/live here.
types of jobs being offered in the area.
churn rate of older neighborhood schools and at how many years this happens (empty nesters leaving, new families moving in, BY area BY age of area).
quality of education kids currently receive.

These all go towards pushing/pulling the numbers and I've dug like mad taking all things into consideration.

It's that voodoo black magic hunch taking all of those things into account.

The flipside is I may vote YES just to pre-empt any emotionally honked off people who will want to find someone to 'blame' for a failure if it occurs. Then I can sit back and say "Not my fault, I voted like you". Karl Rove would be proud.

[fence]

Arch, I think you should vote yes and then run for SB so you could play an integral role in managing the project.

[JB]

archwinsome said:

warriorpride said:

Oh, well, we can't wait until Sept for this referendum. And then if we waited for next year's numbers, then someone would want to wait until the following year's numbers, and so on, ad infinitum.

The BB lawyers can impose a wait period too. September is less than 7 months away and there is a Nov ballot too.

If the referendum fails, we loose BB forever according to a legal agreement. That opens up the whole site selection process again, plus the new boundaries associated with the new location. Not sure what kind of lag that puts in the process, but I'd be very surprised if it could be done by November. The time lag would ensure we'd be over-crowded, and necessitate split shifts interim. Two failed referendums and the need to go to split shifts anyhow would focus the board on implementing split shifts

We're also facing a serious problem of crowding. Even if we build the third HS, WV will be busting at the seams using only current enrollment; new students will only add to the problem. I haven't completed the model for NV yet, but I'm sure they'll be in a similar situation.

While I'm always in favor of more data, and technically agree with Arch that we'd make a better decision with another data point, I'm pretty sure we'd make the same decision we'd make now.

I do forecasting and capacity planning for a living, and I can tell you one data point doesn't reverse a long term trend. I can also tell you the best forecasts in these situations aren't statistical, they are from informed opinion.

We have the trend for D204, and we've applied a sound methodology to estimate future growth - by counting open parcels, taking developer plans, and applying city planning student generation tables. We also have the trend from D203. D203 provides a sanity check for us. I once developed a forecasting model for 56k modems. I based the ramp-up / slow down in demand on the 28k modem data history. In this case, D203 is our 28k modem. All signs point to gradually rising enrollment for the forseeable future, as long as we maintain our focus on academic excellence and continue to be more attractive to people than our surrounding suburbs. The choice is ours on 3/21.

[wvhsparent]

Howie confirmed it at the last Coffee with the Board last Sat. If they (the SD) don't get BB this time around they cannot go after it again. It was part of the last settlement when the got the 1st 25 acres.

Another concern I have is how patient will the SB be if the BB lawyers try to drag this thing out?

[Arch]

If it fails, we are only legally bound to not use condemnation in the future. Open market sale is still allowed. With the recent motion filed, it may have to go back to open market price anyhow....in which case if 3/21 passes and the price is now 'too high for BB', the other parcels might look 'better' as a site. Yes, that also means a whole new boundary process again.

[JB]

archwinsome said:

warriorpride said:

Arch, Are you suggesting that there is some threshold of actual (as opposed to projected) enrollment numbers that would convince you and/or others to vote YES? If so, what is that number?

There's always a threshold that will make me change my mind. That's why I'm hanging around and not out handing out VoteNo stickers/signs or telling people they need to vote No too.

My threshold is a combination of things:

enrollment increasing/decreasing trends.
new house starts.
new house sales and the types of people buying them.
pace of home sales (existing and new).
age stats, # of kids stats, types of homes going in.
hiring/letting go of good paying jobs in the area that will determine if someone can actually afford to move/live here.
types of jobs being offered in the area.
churn rate of older neighborhood schools and at how many years this happens (empty nesters leaving, new families moving in, BY area BY age of area).
quality of education kids currently receive.

These all go towards pushing/pulling the numbers and I've dug like mad taking all things into consideration.

It's that voodoo black magic hunch taking all of those things into account.

The flipside is I may vote YES just to pre-empt any emotionally honked off people who will want to find someone to 'blame' for a failure if it occurs. Then I can sit back and say "Not my fault, I voted like you". Karl Rove would be proud.

Not really voodoo black magic, those are all valid external factors to base a forecast on.

You need to be careful when looking at some of those though, since it's hard to separate cause and effect. Housing starts are a function of developers, who are influenced by the school district status. If you were a builder, wouldn't you wait until the district settled down before you developed? If you see crowding and split shifts, you probably don't build $700,00 homes. Conversely, a third HS show short-term crowding won't be an issue, so build the McMansions. The logic is pretty circular, so we need to influence it in the right direction.

To some extent, businesses are the same way. The Aurora and Naperville Chambers of Commerce, along with the Naperville Development Partnership all endorse the third HS because it brings stability to the area, which attracts business.

"The Naperville Development Partnership board of directors believe that excellent, efficiently run public schools are an important key to the retention and attraction of businesses to the City of Naperville," the NDP said in a letter to District 204.

Same for new folks with kids moving in. If "Naperville Schools" continues to be synonymous with academic excellence, you'll continue to see growth. If we loose that competitive advantage, folks will move elsewhere were there are cheaper houses.

It goes back to my theory that if we vote yes, we'll have growth and a great housing market; if we vote no, we'll have lots of space in the schools, and lots of houses on the market. The choice is ours. Choose, but choose wisely.

[JB]

archwinsome said:

If it fails, we are only legally bound to not use condemnation in the future. Open market sale is still allowed. With the recent motion filed, it may have to go back to open market price anyhow....in which case if 3/21 passes and the price is now 'too high for BB', the other parcels might look 'better' as a site. Yes, that also means a whole new boundary process again.

SB has indicated there is a "walk away" price they won't go above. They're also confident that they won't be forced into that situation. I have no idea what the legal issues are behind the valuation of the property.

Re-hashing boundary issues That may be the best vote yes arguement I've heard yet ;D

[Arch]

jb said:

Re-hashing boundary issues That may be the best vote yes arguement I've heard yet ;D

A YES doesn't mean it will not happen. The trigger's in the BB Lawyer's hands.

[stinks]

A YES most likely will mean that it won't happen--as long as it's the BB land.

[Arch]

Will it get out ground in dirt and grass stains too?

[doctorwho]

<It goes back to my theory that if we vote yes, we'll have growth and a great housing market; if we vote no, we'll have lots of space in the schools, and lots of houses on the market. The choice is ours. Choose, but choose wisely<

I think this is part of the self fulfilling prophecy -- if we vote no overcrowding may cease to be an issue as families move out, and builders are more inclined to look west of us where land is cheaper --- and so goes the draw and allure to our current residents homes and values

[stinks]

A very unappetizing thought. A reason for us to move into this district was because of the perception that people in this community care about education--a like mindedness if you will.

If there is an exodus and then a refilling of the area with people who don't care as much-- since most people don't move into communities with crappy schools if they care--then I really don't want to be here. It would be like being surrounded by people from the VoteNO board everywhere and forever <shudder>.

[Arch]

Stinks, don't confuse "can not afford" with "don't care as much".