A New Message from 204thekids.org

[fence]

archwinsome said:

This is why I had always put forth senior 'targeted' options (dual enrollment, work /study, vocational/tech) for example.
This lets the pressure off in the main building. ITRF, a Senior-Core class center/wing may not be a bad idea either. Yes, it involves spending money... There's no $0.00 'solution' to this.

I think your solution should absolutely be the Plan B. Because it doesn't allow for too much beyond the current numbers, I still don't see it as Plan A. But I've said before and I'll say again that I really think its the best alternate.

[Arch]

I appreciate the thumbs up.. and I agree with you.. if the #'s keep increasing towards 2500+ per grade, it (my idea) should not be plan A. The part that's rough is September's numbers will be tell tale, but the vote is next month.
This is why I've tried to take into account other economic factors. I don't doubt the eventuality of buildout, it's the rate of that happening and the dropping average of kids per home and the increased average age of parents for the new ones taking the place of the empty nesters that still leaves me doubting the continual increase. I could very well be wrong on feeling those proverbial winds, but I'm just telling you how I'm reading it.

[fence]

archwinsome said:

I appreciate the thumbs up.. and I agree with you.. if the #'s keep increasing towards 2500+ per grade, it (my idea) should not be plan A. The part that's rough is September's numbers will be tell tale, but the vote is next month.
This is why I've tried to take into account other economic factors. I don't doubt the eventuality of buildout, it's the rate of that happening and the dropping average of kids per home and the increased average age of parents for the new ones taking the place of the empty nesters that still leaves me doubting the continual increase. I could very well be wrong on feeling those proverbial winds, but I'm just telling you how I'm reading it.

I hear you. I respect your position very much, even if we don't always agree. Of all the reasons I've heard, yours is one of the most thought out and the most rational.

[Arch]

More reasonings why I doubt the rosey housing market picture anytime soon.

www.latimes.com/business/la-022306incomes_lat,0,6520462,print.story?coll=la-home-business

(You may have to copy/paste the entire line to get it all, just clicking on it may not work)

Note when the increases were (late 90's). Guess what? They're the big burst of kids in our system now. If this growth is tracking backwards, I predict a back-track in our enrollment to follow. With the slump starting in 2001, those kids would be our first kindergarten enrollment this year. (( I know, everyone says not to use the # as an absolute due to newcomers into 1st grade from private K classes, but if we compare year to year numbers we're ok for this sake; knowing it doesn't mean exact class size for the next year...just an indicator ))

This is why September numbers are vital to me.

[admin]

The SD is already taking pre-enrollment for next year. Maybe they have a good estimation. Arch, this class is going to be big. It is all the millenium babies coming to school. IMO, the SD are not going to see any significant decline this year.

[Arch]

Ah, so I'm 1 year off. Cr :op. You're right.. Sep 07... that 40 week thing throws off the calculation

[rew]

Passing the ref now, we don't get crowd relief until 2012, when all three HS will be functioning with all four grade levels.

Let's say the numbers stay at the current 2300..zero increase. In 2012 we have three HSs at 3000 +/- ....we convert NV Gold to a MS and sell Still and Scullen.

Now we have three HS, for $125M, of course. We use NVGold as a MS and we sell Still and Scullen for $60M - $100M, so we have a good situation for $25M - $65M.

But let's say we build a MS for $40M and an addition at NV for $20M and in five yrs come to the conclusion we really needed a third HS.Now we pay probably $150-$200M for a third HS?? If we can build it at all, maybe we've committed ourselves to split shifts..year round school,...because the land is not there.

It's an awful big downside risk for a district that isn't built out yet...we have 10% empty land, but we also have well established subdivisions that aren't complete...Tallgrass, Stillwater, Kinloch, Timbercreek, Pencross Knolls, Ashbury and even Ashwwod are all subs with houses that have contracts on them...expensive homes $700 - $1M, not starter homes for newlyweds.

[Arch]

rew said:

Passing the ref now, we don't get crowd relief until 2012, when all three HS will be functioning with all four grade levels.

Let's say the numbers stay at the current 2300..zero increase. In 2012 we have three HSs at 3000 +/- ....we convert NV Gold to a MS and sell Still and Scullen.

Now we have three HS, for $125M, of course. We use NVGold as a MS and we sell Still and Scullen for $60M - $100M, so we have a good situation for $25M - $65M.

But let's say we build a MS for $40M and an addition at NV for $20M and in five yrs come to the conclusion we really needed a third HS.Now we pay probably $150-$200M for a third HS?? If we can build it at all, maybe we've committed ourselves to split shifts..year round school,...because the land is not there.

It's an awful big downside risk for a district that isn't built out yet...we have 10% empty land, but we also have well established subdivisions that aren't complete...Tallgrass, Stillwater, Kinloch, Timbercreek, Pencross Knolls, Ashbury and even Ashwwod are all subs with houses that have contracts on them...expensive homes $700 - $1M, not starter homes for newlyweds.

Newlyweds don't tend to be able to afford the McMansions and those that do tend to be both professionals and/or very limited in the number of children they have.

If we don't need 2 MS's later (Scullen and Still in your example), then how do you suppose we're getting top dollar for old property? One would pretty much have to fall back to the land value itself and not new structure price. Don't forget to add in the increased interest payment on your larger bond amount too from Day 1. That's not chump change.

I've put forth the reader's digest of building a new MS, maintaining freshman campus, and get creative for offloading seniors via more dual enrollment, outreaching to vocational-tech opportunities, early dismissal, work study and 'strategic' additions (for senior core classes, for instance). These relieve the 'pressure' on the main buildings with a decent of wiggle room.

This idea is obviously not on the ballot, but it's something to keep in mind, should the March 21 vote fail to pass.

[fence]

Just out of curiosity and probably a little OT, does anyone know if students from WV are encouraged to or even can participate in the COD Frontier Campus program? The info is published in the IPSD 2007 HS curriculum but I'm wondering if WV students get to participate, and if the district has made it convenient for them to get there if they want to go. I think the program is a decent idea, and I like the idea of getting more creative with senior format. Even though NV might need more room than WV at this point, I would want to make sure though that any special senior programs are offered across the board and access for any student would be offered.

[gatormom]

The Frontier campus is available to WV students.

[Arch]

I've seen 2 D204 busses parked at the COD on Rickert Dr. also.

[title1parent]

At a coffee 2 weeks ago, the SB stated that buses would be available to students if needed to get to COD. I also asked if WVCC was interested in starting this program up at their community college. The SB said that WVCC was going to take a "watch and see approach."
The HS courses would be offered in the morning until 3:00 and then COD would take it over at 3:00 for regular community college hours.

[fence]

Cool, thanks. I figured as much, but just wanted to check.

[rew]

Scullen and Still are new buildiings . Scullen sits right on Rt 59 and Still is in a commercial area. I came from a SD that sold two schools..and they were really old schools - 65 yrs old and they got top dollar.

[title1parent]

Sorry I meant WCC (Waubonsie Community College.)