Great point. Her kids will go to WV, too, regardless of the referendum outcome.
CV: are you a proud supporter of CFO?
Here's an e-mail I have from Chris Vickers that was forwarded by Lynda Elmore. Please PM me if you want the attachment (which is probably available on the CFO website, it's called goldcampusfce.zip).
_________________________________________
Attached please find an Excel file containing 10 worksheets providing current and historical enrollment data as well as building capacity and utilization information received to date. This communication also provides supporting documentation for your review. For easier readability, some of the data has been charted.
HS Capacity
The facts as I see them do not support the need for a third high school. This is the reason I maintain my position against this proposition. If the referendum fails, I continue to maintain that we have ample space to house the 9,200 children presently in 2-5th grades with room to spare. What we know by admissions from administration is that WV housed 3,600 students prior to NV opening and NV housed 3,200 students before its gold campus opened. Available Capacity Worksheets prepared and apparently filed with the Illinois State Board of Education appear to further support this representation (see attached PDF). These capacity worksheets indicate that WVHS has available building capacity of 3,759 and NVHS 3,223. Additionally, I received a functional capacity report prepared by school architects, STR Partners, dated September 22, 2005. (see attached PDF) The architects indicate that according to their preliminary analysis of the gold campuses, by each building housing 1,380 students, this only utilizes 85% its capacity (therefore, if 100% of the space were utilized, the capacity increases to 1,623 students—see report bottom of Page 2). Moreover, the district recently entered into a 5-year property lease with Fry Properties and College of DuPage. This venture allows the district to utilize classroom space at a facility known as the “Frontier Campus”, which is located in close proximity to NVHS. This joint venture will easily accommodate between 200 to 600 students from NV and WV with “room to grow”. In light of the above, the following calculations can be made with respect to high school capacity: 3759+3223+1623+1623+600=10,828. We also know that the terminology of “90% optimal capacity” is a local term; it is not a statewide standard used in other districts.
Student Generation
The student generation formula used by the district to predict future student growth from new construction appears slightly overstated. This past summer, during a board workshop, Mr. Crouse indicated he had increased his high school student generation projection by .10 of a point and had decreased his middle school student projection by .10 of a point. When asked why he had done so, he indicated that people had complained that his numbers were too low. An independent analysis (see Worksheet #1 “Growth New Const. Contrib.” ) was prepared which refuted the district’s ratio. To further support this analysis, I recently received a copy of an updated student generation table which was prepared by Ehlers & Associates on behalf of the City of Naperville for year 2005. The Ehlers student generation study shows that any new housing starts in the City of Naperville will yield half as many high school students as the district has projected (District ratio=.4; Ehlers ratio average=.242) (see attached PDF)
Empty Seats
As you review Worksheet #5 titled “% Inc. Enrollment”, you can see that the District’s overall growth in all grade levels is stabilizing or declining. What the numbers show is that the percentage of enrollment increase is DECLINING. In 2005-06, elementary enrollment increased around .4%, Middle School increased at little over 3.02% and high school increased 6.95%. The results also seem to indicate that District-wide Kindergarten has been flat for 7 years, 1st Grade has been flat for 6 years; 2nd Grade has been flat for 5 years, 3rd Grade flat for 4 years, 4th Grade flat for 3 years and 5th and 6th grade are at the peak. (Note: the 2nd grade class four years ago that is now in 6th grade today only increased by 16 students, etc.) Therefore, as early as next year, we can expect the elementary schools to be about 0%. Very soon, Kindergarten will start to get smaller, and the elementary schools will begin shrinking. The middle and high schools will all peak and collapse in the same way, just 6 and 9 years later respectively.
In Worksheet #10 titled “Data”, the row titled “Utilization %” is the percentage of space being utilized in each building. Watts is utilizing approx. 63% of its capacity and Owen approx. 67%. District-wide, on average we are utilizing approximately 80% of the elementary space in the north and the south elementary schools (Peterson Elementary School is a new 850-seat elementary school currently under construction and scheduled to open Fall 2006. However, at this point in time, there are not enough children in that area in order to open the building for its stated purpose). Presently, it is unknown when the building will be utilized for its intended purpose.
In light of the foregoing, you must ask yourself: Where are the numbers in the elementary schools in order to substantiate the long term need and financial commitment for a third high school? Today, district-wide, we have 3,000 open seats at the elementary level. This does not include the new Peterson school, which would provide an additional 850 seats, thus bringing the total open elementary seats in the district to 3,850.
Boundaries
In my opinion, the current District #204 boundary options have been built on a house of cards--pull the referendum card out, the deck collapses.
The introduction of boundaries is designed for the passage of the referendum. What you are seeing is a planned strategy prepared by a referendum consultant hired by the district (The Center for Community Opinion a/k/a CCO http://www.communityopinion.com) . This plan was customized based on the results of last year’s community survey. It is used to persuade voters to a predetermined outcome—the passage of a referendum. CCO touts an approximate success rate of 95% in obtaining passage of previously defeated referenda and uses terminology such as “Data Preparation and Manipulation” on their website. Do they care about our community and our children or do they simply care about their next success ad for their portfolio?
Look what has happened to our community! Neighbors and friends are arguing over boundary proposals, which are being prematurely discussed on nonexistent space. Is this a healing process or have the wounds simply deepened? Full disclosure and factually-supported analysis are imperative to obtain public support for all recommended solutions—boundaries or otherwise. The public has expressed extreme frustration in obtaining disclosure and supportive documentation in district processes; it has also been a continual frustration for me as a board member.
It is as apparent to me, as it is to others, that a very emotional topic has been interjected into the referendum process. Let’s not lose sight of why we’re really here. Let’s not pour all our energy into “what ifs”. The boundaries can be redrawn at any time; there are no guarantees.
HS Split Shifts or Other Viable Alternative Options
I was as surprised as the rest of the public when split shifts was announcement as the only alternative option to solving any district space needs if the referendum fails. In my opinion, split shifts will not be necessary. While I continue to believe we have ample capacity in our buildings to accommodate the enrollment wave currently in second through fifth grade, if for some reason an unexpected blip would occur in high school enrollment, a valid option in my mind would be to build an addition onto Neuqua. In fact, approximately two years ago, the district requested a space analysis be performed by ATS&R, school architects, to evaluate, design and estimate the cost of adding an addition to NVHS to increase its student capacity to 3600. This analysis and price quote also included recommended alterations to Neuqua’s main campus LMC, cafeteria and halls. (See attached PDF) At that time, ATS&R estimated the cost of the addition and alterations at approximately $13.6 million for the bid year 2006.
A second option would be to fully utilize the Frontier Campus. As mentioned above, this is a joint venture the district has already entered into with the College of DuPage for the next five years (2006-2011). This will provide an additional 15 classrooms for traditional and dual college-credit courses. The facility is conveniently located and in close proximity to NVHS. This will provide space for 200-600 students with “room to grow”.
MS Issue
The only middle school in the district with a capacity issue appears to be Scullen Middle School. One portable classroom module was installed at Scullen this 2005-06 school year. In reviewing enrollment at its elementary feeder schools, it is likely it will continue to exceed its capacity by approximately 100 students during the next two years before enrollment begins to recede. A conservative approach to the solution is to install one additional modular unit which will accommodate 120 students. This would allow the WVHS area to maintain its Freshman Gold Campus as well as keep the current middle school boundaries intact. Additionally, a modular classroom costs approximately $250,000 installed. When enrollment begins to decline, the modular units can then be removed.
Alternatively, since no additional elementary space is needed in the district, Peterson Elementary School could potentially be converted to a 7th middle school. This would provide permanent classroom space versus temporary classroom space. The conversion costs are unknown at this time.
Conclusion
In conclusion, in light of the foregoing, I do believe we have adequate space to provide for the enrollment wave currently in 2-5 grades, but I also believe that if public preference is for current high school boundaries to remain intact, any of the above high school options would be viable solutions and cost the taxpayers significantly less than $124.6 million dollars.
If I may be of further assistance or provide you with additional information or documentation, please feel free to contact me.
Sincerely, Chris Vickers
