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Post by Arch on Jul 2, 2008 13:54:54 GMT -6
GD,
I recall a percentage multiplier being factored in w/ ES enrollment numbers to get the HS numbers.
Is that what's missing in the calculations?
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Post by gatordog on Jul 2, 2008 14:16:20 GMT -6
GD, I recall a percentage multiplier being factored in w/ ES enrollment numbers to get the HS numbers. Is that what's missing in the calculations? arch, I dont think that is it. The only percentage multiplier I know of is something I used in my own spreadsheets back in the day when all had had was enrollment numbers for an entire ES from School Report card. It was my own thing to reflect that avg class size for the entire school K-5 is underpredicted a little bit due to historically being big jump in enroll from K to 1 since a significant number of students are in private K. I dont think the district ever did any such thing....it was just me, as far as i know. But with the given enrollments per individual grade level on the posted pdf (and also subdivision breakdown from KB's office) such a fudge factor is unnecessary! So my figure is not based on any mulitpliers....just adding up for all the schools 4 yr chunks of various grade levels. I welcome somebody double checking...add up for example all the 7-6-5-4 graders to see what size the Class of 2013 is with no growth. |
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Post by doctorwho on Jul 2, 2008 14:34:17 GMT -6
projections now show 8931 MAX in 2013 ( and end of year #'s may require that to be ratched down again-and downward after that as ES attendance continues to decline ) drwho, your number for the Class of 2013 is incorrect by my figuring. How did you figure that? I added up the numbers on the enrollment pdf that arch posted, as of 6/5/08. The class of 2013 (then in grades 7,6,5,4) with no further growth at all adds up to 9166. I went ahead and did the same for the class of 2015, which is 9092. Before we talk about being "duped" by projections from 3 or 4 yrs ago, lets at least add up the hard numbers in front of us correctly! Adding up the numbers on the 2007-08_ENROLLMENT_REPORT.pdf suggests that even with zero growth, we will soon be seeing HS enrollments at ~9100. And this will extend for the foreseeable future. GD - every year the starting attendance drops over the course of a year and does so at almost every grade. Look at the 6 page doc I posted with all the numbers by month for each of the last 2 years. So it is not a modifier if you will but the numbers from the ending previous grades do not equal the HS starting numbers - never have if you look at their data. Remember some of those kids go to private HS's and MSA - and more of those every year ! BTW - if the concern is the 8931 - those are not MY calc's - they belong to the SB-SD and that is what they reporting on March 4, 2008 in their financial report with PMA Financial Network Inc. I assume they are not going to short themselves from a budget standpoint. Report is entitled: Five Year Financial Projections - Indian Prairie CUSD 204. Ask one of the SB members you are close to for a copy. here is what they turned in ( so if you have issue with the numbers you have to talk to them -I am sure they turned in the right totals ) - as this is obviosuly what they budget off of. 2009 8488 2010 8660 2011 8816 2012 8898 2013 8931 as it is these have extra's built in it seems as the end of year 2008 attedance for 204 grades 9-12 was 8064 ( down from 8182 to start the year ) 2008 ended at 7773 so these numbers make absolute sense YTY. Again, these are not my calc's - or projections -- or guesses - these are 204's. Would be nice if they were on their web site. |
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Post by doctorwho on Jul 2, 2008 14:42:38 GMT -6
GD, I recall a percentage multiplier being factored in w/ ES enrollment numbers to get the HS numbers. Is that what's missing in the calculations? arch, I dont think that is it. The only percentage multiplier I know of is something I used in my own spreadsheets back in the day when all had had was enrollment numbers for an entire ES from School Report card. It was my own thing to reflect that avg class size for the entire school K-5 is underpredicted a little bit due to historically being big jump in enroll from K to 1 since a significant number of students are in private K. I dont think the district ever did any such thing....it was just me, as far as i know. But with the given enrollments per individual grade level on the posted pdf (and also subdivision breakdown from KB's office) such a fudge factor is unnecessary! So my figure is not based on any mulitpliers....just adding up for all the schools 4 yr chunks of various grade levels. I welcome somebody double checking...add up for example all the 7-6-5-4 graders to see what size the Class of 2013 is with no growth. "I welcome somebody double checking...add up for example all the 7-6-5-4 graders to see what size the Class of 2013 is with no growth" here's the other issue GD - the ES classes dropped again this year by 2% - and your adding these numbers also does not account for private school departures ( growing each year) - and MSA etc. |
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Post by Arch on Jul 2, 2008 14:48:20 GMT -6
Kind of hard to argue the SD's own numbers. If you think they are wrong, then bring it up at the next board meeting.
Pretty simple.
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Post by gatordog on Jul 2, 2008 15:20:00 GMT -6
Thanks for info drwho. But a big difference is I am trying to think on longer time scale than the next 1 to 5 yrs.
Lets keep this simple. People can figure directly for themselves.
Here are the current grade level enrollments from the report:
1 2200
2 2331
3 2241
4 2300
5 2215
6 2292
Eyeball an average grade size...about 2250 students. And there is no sign here of a bubble. Its pretty level at avg of ~2250.
Thus we need to plan for the longer scale future for HS enrollments of at least 4 * 2250 = 9000.
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Post by doctorwho on Jul 2, 2008 15:34:51 GMT -6
Thanks for info drwho. But a big difference is I am trying to think on longer time scale than the next 1 to 5 yrs. Lets keep this simple. People can figure directly for themselves. Here are the current grade level enrollments from the report: 1 2200 2 2331 3 2241 4 2300 5 2215 6 2292 Eyeball an average grade size...about 2250 students. And there is no sign here of a bubble. Its pretty level at avg of ~2250. Thus we need to plan for the longer scale future for HS enrollments of at least 4 * 2250 = 9000. Where are you removing the kids for Benet / St Francis/ Marmion / Rosary etc ? As well as Math & Science Academy. That is the attrition you were missing on the last post. Pretty easy to get to that 8931 number ( only 69 students and I believe it is more than that today and rising ) that's 531 over HC's room for quotes of 8400 ( not counting Frontier Campus) - the wild card here will be if there is any truth to the rumor on the Archdiocese of Joliet building a HS in the Naperville-Plainfield area. I agree that one cannot factor that in today at all- but if that happens there will be a more significant impact. btw - from the districts financial report their forecast for 2013 for each of those grades is: 1 2134 2 2143 3 2135 4 2130 5 2080 which seems like they are adjusting for the YTY drops we are seeing across the board the last few years in ES-- you still are not accounting for them. Are they wrong ? this average is 2124 ( again before losing kinds to private schools ) that is an attendance of 8496 ( before private school attrition ) Please tell me where my ( 204's) math is off ? let's see 8400 = Howie and 8496 less the Private school kids in 5 years. This would be a concern to me. |
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Post by gatordog on Jul 2, 2008 15:55:23 GMT -6
Where are you removing the kids for Benet / St Francis/ Marmion / Rosary etc ? As well as Math & Science Academy. That is the attrition you were missing on the last post. ..... that is an attendance of 8496 ( before private school attrition ) The ES numbers dont include private ES, either. Just as some are public K-8 and go private 9-12, some are private K-8 and public 9-12. I dont know the private in/out balance at all. In my mind the biggest uncertainty is future housing additions and population growth here. In the next decade, it will be >0. |
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Post by Arch on Jul 2, 2008 16:00:42 GMT -6
Where are you removing the kids for Benet / St Francis/ Marmion / Rosary etc ? As well as Math & Science Academy. That is the attrition you were missing on the last post. ..... that is an attendance of 8496 ( before private school attrition ) The ES numbers dont include private ES, either. Just as some are public K-8 and go private 9-12, some are private K-8 and public 9-12. I dont know the private in/out balance at all. In my mind the biggest uncertainty is future housing additions and population growth here. In the next decade, it will be >0. I'd venture a guess that with the economy doing what it's doing and gas doing what it's doing we'll have some negative growth.. more people moving out than in because living in the burbs got a whole lot more expensive when the cost of petrol shot up and started taking a larger routine bite out of people's monthly cash (and unfortunately credit flow) which in the past was easy to roll that expenditure (credit card debt in general) onto a HELC or re-finance. That game of musical chairs has stopped. Many people are still looking for a seat. |
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Post by doctorwho on Jul 2, 2008 17:10:33 GMT -6
Where are you removing the kids for Benet / St Francis/ Marmion / Rosary etc ? As well as Math & Science Academy. That is the attrition you were missing on the last post. ..... that is an attendance of 8496 ( before private school attrition ) The ES numbers dont include private ES, either. Just as some are public K-8 and go private 9-12, some are private K-8 and public 9-12. I dont know the private in/out balance at all. In my mind the biggest uncertainty is future housing additions and population growth here. In the next decade, it will be >0. I will try and get the answer on in/out - for the time being assuming a wash that number in 2013 is 8496. |
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Post by gatordog on Jul 2, 2008 19:23:39 GMT -6
I will try and get the answer on in/out - for the time being assuming a wash that number in 2013 is 8496. This 2013 grades 1st-5th estimated number would be for graduating classes around 2020- 2024. So we are talking about baseline projected HS enrollment of ~8500 into the year 2025 and beyond. With subdivisions built-up as they are. To me that is the thing: I am glad the voters gave us the third HS so we dont have to plan for the next 15 years and beyond to have more HS students than we have capacity for! For the 204 graduating classes of 2020-2025-and beyond, even if simple no-growth case occurs, I am very satisfied as a voter and taxpayer to have WV, NV, and MW operating very efficiently at 80-85% capacity. |
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Post by steckdad on Jul 2, 2008 19:37:46 GMT -6
The ES numbers dont include private ES, either. Just as some are public K-8 and go private 9-12, some are private K-8 and public 9-12. I dont know the private in/out balance at all. In my mind the biggest uncertainty is future housing additions and population growth here. In the next decade, it will be >0. I'd venture a guess that with the economy doing what it's doing and gas doing what it's doing we'll have some negative growth.. more people moving out than in because living in the burbs got a whole lot more expensive when the cost of petrol shot up and started taking a larger routine bite out of people's monthly cash (and unfortunately credit flow) which in the past was easy to roll that expenditure (credit card debt in general) onto a HELC or re-finance. That game of musical chairs has stopped. Many people are still looking for a seat. the economy is all the more reason to stay put IMO. folks thinking about private school will possibly bite the bullet and stick with 204, because at least their kids can take the bus rather than driving them everyday. I would think most of the ARM victims have moved or downgraded all ready. just a thought. |
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Post by Arch on Jul 2, 2008 19:47:13 GMT -6
I'd venture a guess that with the economy doing what it's doing and gas doing what it's doing we'll have some negative growth.. more people moving out than in because living in the burbs got a whole lot more expensive when the cost of petrol shot up and started taking a larger routine bite out of people's monthly cash (and unfortunately credit flow) which in the past was easy to roll that expenditure (credit card debt in general) onto a HELC or re-finance. That game of musical chairs has stopped. Many people are still looking for a seat. the economy is all the more reason to stay put IMO. folks thinking about private school will possibly bite the bullet and stick with 204, because at least their kids can take the bus rather than driving them everyday. I would think most of the ARM victims have moved or downgraded all ready. just a thought. There's still people financing their cash flow problems and the minimum payment game w/ wiped out equity cushions that they thought they once had toppled with job cutbacks and downsizing hasn't had its ripple effect just yet. Again, IMO. The implosion game simply has a couple of pawns standing across from each other right now. The good pieces have yet to move. |
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Post by doctorwho on Jul 2, 2008 20:14:04 GMT -6
I'd venture a guess that with the economy doing what it's doing and gas doing what it's doing we'll have some negative growth.. more people moving out than in because living in the burbs got a whole lot more expensive when the cost of petrol shot up and started taking a larger routine bite out of people's monthly cash (and unfortunately credit flow) which in the past was easy to roll that expenditure (credit card debt in general) onto a HELC or re-finance. That game of musical chairs has stopped. Many people are still looking for a seat. the economy is all the more reason to stay put IMO. folks thinking about private school will possibly bite the bullet and stick with 204, because at least their kids can take the bus rather than driving them everyday. I would think most of the ARM victims have moved or downgraded all ready. just a thought. Sorry, not me, and not others I know. Also very good chance by next year there will be bus service to 204 ( already exists to 203 ) . Surveys being done to see where kids are coming from, and I hear application wise big jump from 204. Nearly 2 hours a day on the bus for the kids in my part of Watts and all the trips I would have to make back and forth more than eat up the 50% shorter ( distance - more than that time wise) drive to Benet. Add to that all the other issues and really driving not a concern. Also note that you get reimbursed by the state for the driving - at .425 , 4 trips per day ( up and back and up and back) - which takes a sting out of the tuition. Also know more people so frustrated they are moving kids to All Saints - so I think it just depends on what area one lives in. I know people in TG sending kids to Joliet Catholic also. |
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Post by doctorwho on Jul 2, 2008 20:27:29 GMT -6
I will try and get the answer on in/out - for the time being assuming a wash that number in 2013 is 8496. This 2013 grades 1st-5th estimated number would be for graduating classes around 2020- 2024. So we are talking about baseline projected HS enrollment of ~8500 into the year 2025 and beyond. With subdivisions built-up as they are. To me that is the thing: I am glad the voters gave us the third HS so we dont have to plan for the next 15 years and beyond to have more HS students than we have capacity for! For the 204 graduating classes of 2020-2025-and beyond, even if simple no-growth case occurs, I am very satisfied as a voter and taxpayer to have WV, NV, and MW operating very efficiently at 80-85% capacity. The 8400 Howie quoted was 80-85% capacity -- remember all the issue over terminology? I am glad you agree the numbers are what the numbers are though - most will not admit to them even today. I still read about how we would have had 5000 student high schools had we not gotten this land, and that is just so wrong. I am fine with your opinion that it is OK to run 3 HS's at far less than capacity ( if 8400 was 80% before Frontier Campus, I view it as in the 70% range as we move forward) - everyone entitled to their opinion on that, although there were much more finanically efficient ways to accomplish this -- What I am ticked to no end about is that we were sold 10,200 long after they knew that was a totally bogus number. The timestamps on conversations show that. Then threatened with split shifts, cut curriculums etc when that was never going to happen. How can there be trust on anything at this point ? I can tell you there is none from me. Maybe the ref passes anyway if enough people feel as you do, but why did we have to cook the numbers and use FUD to sell it ? You know how I feel about WV Gatordog, and I used to think that the whispers about eventually closing WVHS were nonsense, I am not as confident that is true to day as I once was. A Freshman campus added to MV would make this very possible based on the published trends IMHO. |
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