SB Options for BB now

[bob]

HS enrollment using DPC #s

9143 2016
9165 2015
9106 2014
9192 2013
9228 2012
9133 2011
8907 2010
8591 2009
8086 2008

[gatordog]

harry said:

bob said:

Over the next four years (starting this year), the HSs will pick up an extra 1265 students.

2015 9154
2014 9088
2013 9059
2012 9118
2011 9075
2010 8922
2009 8778
2008 8311

Bob, unless you are a SB member and know these numbers to be true please stop displaying these false numbers

These are projections only

harry, I understand bob to be adding up current grade level enrollment, and rolling them forward in 9th-12th grade chunks.

So yes, they are projections in that he is assuming each student passes and moves onto the next grade.

[doctorwho]

harry said:

archwinsome said:

There will be an uprising?

How come every time I hear about one it never happens? Will there be burning cars and trashed malls as a result?

I so miss the burning barrels.

You can 'make light' of the sitch...most don't look thru your glasses.

The last uprising wasn't noisy...just a vote NO for the 2005 Referendum

This will be repeated in the 2009 referendum...no trust in the SB

you missed one referendum vote... where the turnout was much larger than the no vote.

[harry]

gatordog said:

harry said:

Bob, unless you are a SB member and know these numbers to be true please stop displaying these false numbers

These are projections only

harry, I understand bob to be adding up current grade level enrollment, and rolling them forward in 9th-12th grade chunks.

So yes, they are projections in that he is assuming each student passes and moves onto the next grade.

And I understand that 8 whole years from now we will not ever crest at 10400 student in HS, which is the 'bill of goods' used to pass the referendum.

[harry]

doctorwho said:

harry said:

You can 'make light' of the sitch...most don't look thru your glasses.

The last uprising wasn't noisy...just a vote NO for the 2005 Referendum

This will be repeated in the 2009 referendum...no trust in the SB

you missed one referendum vote... where the turnout was much larger than the no vote.

The Yes vote won once and so did the NO vote

The 2009 Referendum is in jeopardy if the enrollment numbers decrease,,,

[doctorwho]

harry said:

gatordog said:

harry, I understand bob to be adding up current grade level enrollment, and rolling them forward in 9th-12th grade chunks.

So yes, they are projections in that he is assuming each student passes and moves onto the next grade.

And I understand that 8 whole years from now we will not ever crest at 10400 student in HS, which is the 'bill of goods' used to pass the referendum.

if one reads the projections 10,400 was the high end of that projection. That is what a projection is supposed to do is give a range - why are we only using the high end here ?

[harry]

doctorwho said:

harry said:

And I understand that 8 whole years from now we will not ever crest at 10400 student in HS, which is the 'bill of goods' used to pass the referendum.

if one reads the projections 10,400 was the high end of that projection. That is what a projection is supposed to do is give a range - why are we only using the high end here ?

What was the low end??? That was certainly not used in the slick marketing fear/smear campaign

[doctorwho]

harry said:

doctorwho said:

you missed one referendum vote... where the turnout was much larger than the no vote.

The Yes vote won once and so did the NO vote

The 2009 Referendum is in jeopardy if the enrollment numbers decrease,,,

also could you tell us where capacity numbers are from please, it's been a while since digging thru them

[harry]

doctorwho said:

harry said:

The Yes vote won once and so did the NO vote

The 2009 Referendum is in jeopardy if the enrollment numbers decrease,,,

also could you tell us where capacity numbers are from please, it's been a while since digging thru them

YOU

I have already lived thru the BS once and that was enough

[doctorwho]

harry said:

doctorwho said:

if one reads the projections 10,400 was the high end of that projection. That is what a projection is supposed to do is give a range - why are we only using the high end here ?

What was the low end??? That was certainly not used in the slick marketing fear/smear campaign

I am not sure what campaign you are talking about -- there was a slick one that used all kinds of fear mongering but it did not belong to the SB.... I will look as I have a copy of the Freelance presentations that were done...I believe it was mid 9000's but I don't want to be off 50 or so and be accused of being slick. As far as showing the range - sorry but yes it was shown.

[gatordog]

An issue with a 2500 seat MVHS.

I added up the 2006 school report card attendence numbers for all MVHS feeders and get 4134 ES students.

This number conservatively assumes 0 McCarty students in the little triangle section that will walk to MVHS at BB.

Conservatively assume that kindegarden represents a "full" class.

Then 4134 * 4 classes in HS / 6 classes in ES = 2756 HS students.

So current boundaries would have to be redrawn. MVHS would be overcapacity at the time it is built.

To get to an "optimal" 90% of "design" capacity, you'd like 2250 HS students. This is "fair" in that I understand the 3rd HS allows WV and NV to operate in this "optimal" range.

So boundaries would have to shift at a minimum 2756-2250 = 506 HS students....which is fed from 759 ES students.


The boundary shift would be more than 1 ES. Fractions of multiple ES's? Or 1 big ES (Fry would fit the bill)

A 2500 seat MVHS will pose some interesting boundary issues.

ETA: I think earlier in this thread...it was discussed to "move 1 ES" if MVHS scaled down. My figuring suggests it wont be that simple.

[harry]

doctorwho said:

harry said:

What was the low end??? That was certainly not used in the slick marketing fear/smear campaign

I am not sure what campaign you are talking about -- there was a slick one that used all kinds of fear mongering but it did not belong to the SB.... I will look as I have a copy of the Freelance presentations that were done...I believe it was mid 9000's but I don't want to be off 50 or so and be accused of being slick. As far as showing the range - sorry but yes it was shown.

The SB's fear campaign included students at the HS level as 10400

You obviously remember the number since you asked for the low end of the range

See.....their smear campaign DID work

[doctorwho]

harry said:

doctorwho said:

also could you tell us where capacity numbers are from please, it's been a while since digging thru them

YOU

I have already lived thru the BS once and that was enough

typical - spew out numbers and then provide zero back up -- must be nice to be able to do that.

I seem to remember the optimal number of students for the 2 high schools was 8400 - and that counted both freshman centers -- we are losing one center to become a middle school -- (by your count 1200 - but that is too high for the optimal number) -

for once- if you want more data - YOU can look it up.

[harry]

gatordog said:

An issue with a 2500 seat MVHS.

I added up the 2006 school report card attendence numbers for all MVHS feeders and get 4134 ES students.

This number conservatively assumes 0 McCarty students in the little triangle section that will walk to MVHS at BB.

Conservatively assume that kindegarden represents a "full" class.

Then 4134 * 4 classes in HS / 6 classes in ES = 2756 HS students.

So current boundaries would have to be redrawn. MVHS would be overcapacity at the time it is built.

To get to an "optimal" 90% of "design" capacity, you'd like 2250 HS students. This is "fair" in that I understand the 3rd HS allows WV and NV to operate in this "optimal" range.

So boundaries would have to shift at a minimum 2756-2250 = 506 HS students....which is fed from 759 ES students.


The boundary shift would be more than 1 ES. Fractions of multiple ES's? Or 1 big ES (Fry would fit the bill)

A 2500 seat MVHS will pose some interesting boundary issues.

ETA: I think earlier in this thread...it was discussed to "move 1 ES" if MVHS scaled down. My figuring suggests it wont be that simple.

Boundaries will be redrawn regardless

Boundaries were not voted on and things as always are fluid

[harry]

doctorwho said:

harry said:

YOU

I have already lived thru the BS once and that was enough

typical - spew out numbers and then provide zero back up -- must be nice to be able to do that.

I seem to remember the optimal number of students for the 2 high schools was 8400 - and that counted both freshman centers -- we are losing one center to become a middle school -- (by your count 1200 - but that is too high for the optimal number) -

for once- if you want more data - YOU can look it up.

You asked for more data not I sir.

The numbers don't jive,,,that is your issue