2009

[proschool]

Assuming the high school will not be built until 2010, what will things looks like in 2008 and 2009. How crowding are the high schools and middle schools going to be?

What kind of solutions are there?

[gatordog]

I got HS numbers in front of me right now.
According to numbers post by dpc and projection by bob in Enrollment thread:

2009-10 HS enrollment is 8907, or about 4450 per HS (with each HS I am assuming at design capacity of 4200)


note, this is just simply adding up all give ES enrollements.

[rew]

OK, I crunched some numbers, using the DHs numbers for the schools that appeared Oct 11, 2007. Using these numbers I calculated avg class size of enrolled students goign to each HS in the next couple of years...this has NO growth in it, NO projections for new students.

WVHS has an avg incoming class of about 1100 students and NVHS has an avg of about 1200. So...

No third HS

2008 WV 3900 NV 4400 = 8300

2009 WV 4100 NV 4600 = 8700

2010 WV 4300 NV 4800 = 9100


If a school opens in 2009

2009 WV 3200 NV 4100 MV 1400 = 8700

2010 WV 3000 NV 4000 MV 2000 =9000

2011 WV 2800 NV 3800 MV 2800 = 9400


If a school opens in 2010

2009 WV 4100 NV 4600 =8700

2010 WV 3400 NV 4200 MV 1400 =9000

2011 WV 3100 NV 4100 MV 2100 = 9300

Okay ..How did I do this I took the MS enrollments and divided by three to come up with a class size that is coming over the next few yrs into each HS. Then I checked the avg against the ES enrollment and they were pretty consistent. And the ESs that leave each HS I subtracted in the yrs they leave.

It is not exact , that's why the #s don't all come out equal (rounding errors)and like I said shows no growth til 2011, but at least it's something to discuss...And if someone wants to come up with better numbers...go for it.

[rew]

Gatordog, I see your post on the other thread...the numbers look good, yours are more exact, thanks

[gatordog]

Sorry for double post...but I want to stick this here also. To put side by side with what rew had. I will say its "kosher" for double-post....since this thread is kind of asking a different question.

---------

I think it works to just stick with the original plan (edit: for high schoolers), that is have MVHS open with fr-soph, even if this opening is 2010-2011.

The crowding issue is with WV since it losses its Fr campus. I think the numbers show that WV can still be ok for the 2010-2011 with juniors who were "supposed" to be at MV. Of couse the same applies at NV, their juniors simply stay at NV also.

Here is why:

Background:
-Enrollment thread post had each ES 2007-08 enrollment...I am using that.
-Assume current boundaries remain intact.
-Assume 2010-2011 year MVHS opening. Assume WV Gold converted to MS then.
-Assume future WV capacity of 3000 and NV capacity of 4200

Based on current boundaries situation:
-WV feeder ES's will produce about 1110 student per HS grade level.
-NV feeder ES's will produce about 1140 student per HS grade level.
(Note: this "checks" pretty good with dpc/bob enrollment projection for 2010-11.)

The future-situation:
-WV feeder ES's will produce about 650 student per HS grade level.
-NV feeder ES's will produce about 890 student per HS grade level.
-NV feeder ES's will produce about 700 student per HS grade level.


2010-11 MV Start-up with Fr and Soph only:
WV=2*1110 + 2*650 =3520
NV= 2*1140 + 2*890= 4060
MV=2*700 = 1400 (two classes)

2010-11 MV Start-up with Fr,Soph, and Jrs :
WV=1*1110 + 3*650 =3060
NV= 2*1140 + 2*890= 3810
MV=3*700 = 2100 (three classes)

My conclusion:
1. Keep all the Class of 2012 as juniors at their current HS. Dont move them.
2. There is room for them at NV. No need at all for them to be moved to MV. I dont think it would be fair to them to tell them they have to move.
3. As fairness issue, I strongly feel that you cannot tell WV students they have to move as juniors if NV students are not.
3. Yes...WV will be 500 overcapacity, but think that can be handled for one year. I do not think this is grossly or severely overcrowd for this one year. I will say its "only" 500 over capacity.

[gatordog]

One comment on my above post: its very much a "snapshot" of 2010-2011, and i think these numbers are very ok to use for 2009-2010 as well.

This is a disclaimer so these numbers are not used to project into the future. For example, this isnt meant to cover the 2012-2016 when enrollements will be greater.

One particular thing is the future WV class size is "underpredicted" because I was using 0 as number of students for Ashwood development. I think its a decent approx for 2010, but not for the future.

[doctorwho]

gatordog said:

One comment on my above post: its very much a "snapshot" of 2010-2011, and i think these numbers are very ok to use for 2009-2010 as well.

This is a disclaimer so these numbers are not used to project into the future. For example, this isnt meant to cover the 2012-2016 when enrollements will be greater.

One particular thing is the future WV class size is "underpredicted" because I was using 0 as number of students for Ashwood development. I think its a decent approx for 2010, but not for the future.

you're using BB boundaries right ?

lots of change if we move far north or MACOM

[rew]

Oh absolutely this was using BB boundaries...It's all we have to go on. But, in the numbers defense...I think the balancing of 3000, 3000 and 4000 will remian consistent... It's about as good as one can do.

[gatordog]

doctorwho said:

you're using BB boundaries right ?

lots of change if we move far north or MACOM

yes, absolutely. using BB boundaries.

Still, I think the "scale" would probably apply in pretty good way even if boundaries change. I am just think in big picture terms of what WV and NV has to handle if there is no MV for 2009-10.

The BIG assumption is WV loses the Gold campus and NV keeps it. Now that could easily change with different site. If that were the case, my rough guess is the conclusion still applies.....but reverse the overcrowding situation from WV to NV.

I am going to make a very broad estimate/projection here:
I think its very possible that independent of the site, if 2010-11 is when MV opens, the class of 2012 should stay at WV and NV for jr and sr year. I still think a 2010 opening with fr and sophs is reasonable and the existing HS could handle for that one yr the enrollment.

I dont think it will be justifiable to move students their junior year. The overall district-wide "gain" will be too small for the "price" born by these students.

[rew]

Thanks Gatordog, looking at the numbers I would agree.

[gatordog]

rew said:

Thanks Gatordog, looking at the numbers I would agree.

I am just glad the numbers support what parents and students in their gut says is "the right thing to do"...dont move students their junior year.

Also, hopefully this wont be a "scare tactic" for future discussions. Not sure if it would be...but you never know.

In this area with other new HS's opening...plainfield, oswego....did any of them open with juniors? Did any open with just freshman?

[doctorwho]

gatordog said:

rew said:

Thanks Gatordog, looking at the numbers I would agree.

I am just glad the numbers support what parents and students in their gut says is "the right thing to do"...dont move students their junior year.

Also, hopefully this wont be a "scare tactic" for future discussions. Not sure if it would be...but you never know.

In this area with other new HS's opening...plainfield, oswego....did any of them open with juniors? Did any open with just freshman?

I know for a fact Oswego East opened with only freshman and sophomores -- a little over 900 total in 2004.

Also Plainfield North opened in 05-06 with Freshman and Sophomores only too.
btw - the girls VB team there won their conference in their 2nd year of existance.

[gatordog]

Thanks, doctorwho.

It sounds like opening with fr and sophs is the "norm".
This was my memory from original third HS days and what I assumed.

[proschool]

gatordog said:

Sorry for double post...but I want to stick this here also. To put side by side with what rew had. I will say its "kosher" for double-post....since this thread is kind of asking a different question.

---------

I think it works to just stick with the original plan (edit: for high schoolers), that is have MVHS open with fr-soph, even if this opening is 2010-2011.

The crowding issue is with WV since it losses its Fr campus. I think the numbers show that WV can still be ok for the 2010-2011 with juniors who were "supposed" to be at MV. Of couse the same applies at NV, their juniors simply stay at NV also.

Here is why:

Background:
-Enrollment thread post had each ES 2007-08 enrollment...I am using that.
-Assume current boundaries remain intact.
-Assume 2010-2011 year MVHS opening. Assume WV Gold converted to MS then.
-Assume future WV capacity of 3000 and NV capacity of 4200

Based on current boundaries situation:
-WV feeder ES's will produce about 1110 student per HS grade level.
-NV feeder ES's will produce about 1140 student per HS grade level.
(Note: this "checks" pretty good with dpc/bob enrollment projection for 2010-11.)

The future-situation:
-WV feeder ES's will produce about 650 student per HS grade level.
-NV feeder ES's will produce about 890 student per HS grade level.
-NV feeder ES's will produce about 700 student per HS grade level.


2010-11 MV Start-up with Fr and Soph only:
WV=2*1110 + 2*650 =3520
NV= 2*1140 + 2*890= 4060
MV=2*700 = 1400 (two classes)

2010-11 MV Start-up with Fr,Soph, and Jrs :
WV=1*1110 + 3*650 =3060
NV= 2*1140 + 2*890= 3810
MV=3*700 = 2100 (three classes)

My conclusion:
1. Keep all the Class of 2012 as juniors at their current HS. Dont move them.
2. There is room for them at NV. No need at all for them to be moved to MV. I dont think it would be fair to them to tell them they have to move.
3. As fairness issue, I strongly feel that you cannot tell WV students they have to move as juniors if NV students are not.
3. Yes...WV will be 500 overcapacity, but think that can be handled for one year. I do not think this is grossly or severely overcrowd for this one year. I will say its "only" 500 over capacity.

Why not place the WV freshmen at MV so that MV can serve as WV Freshman center. Otherwise the freshmen at WV will only be 650 students in a high school of 3600 at a time when they are the only Freshmen dealing with upperclassmen at all.

[gatordog]

proschool said:

gatordog said:

Why not place the WV freshmen at MV so that MV can serve as WV Freshman center. Otherwise the freshmen at WV will only be 650 students in a high school of 3600 at a time when they are the only Freshmen dealing with upperclassmen at all.

That is a good idea to bring WV back within design capacity in 2010-11.

I can think of three negatives, though
-Planned freshman walkers to WV would no longer be walkers for that year.
-I wonder how the WV freshman students would feel about being on a different HS campus.
-It doesnt seem right to me that NV freshman in 2010-11 have "better" experience than their WV counterparts. I think the treatment should be as indentical as possible among the schools.