2006-07 Enrollment Numbers

[bob]

I received the numbers yesterday. I can't seem to post them becusae it is a PDF.


Enrollment increased 1.8% to 28715.

The first grade class is now the 2nd largest class in the SD at 2358. The 7 th grade class is the largest at 2383.

K 1988
1 2358 increase of 258 from the K class
2 2259
3 2324
4 2213
5 2292
6 2230
7 2383
8 2170
F 2139
S 2086
J 1916
S 1769


Before the FUD starts with the K class, remember that the class has increases of 10-12% when they enter first grade.

[momof3]

Also, one more school offering all day K has opened - All Saints - I know several families sending their children to all day K there and are planning to switch to 204 next year - so the K to 1st increase may be even bigger next year.

[EagleDad]

Just curious, anyone know the approx cost of all day K (All Saints or others). Got one in the on-deck circle for next year myself.

[bob]

Same here, I like all day K and I wish we had it.

We probably don't have room for all day K in the SD.

[warriorpride]

Just to get it out in the open, does anyone know what the projections for 06-07 were that were used during the referendum by the SD?

[bob]

28115 2006-2007
28333 2007-2008
28458 2008-2009
28378 2009-2010
28266 2010-2011
28147 2011-2012
27800 2012-2013


I found this but not sure where I got it from. I think I got it from CFO web page and their projections.

[bob]

www.ipsd.org/Uploads/news_5768_1.pdf

using 1-4 we are at 9265 which is above the current no growth model of 9034 but below the other two models.

We are almost right between no growth and their model 1.

[sam]

I don't know where Bob's CFO numbers came from. ( Hard to believe he would rely on anything from CFO) but the numbers I kept, which I beleive were from a link to the IPSD site for school district projections were:

projected 2005/2006 2006/2007 NIU Projection 06/07 Actual
06/07

High School 7,665 8,077 8,253 7,910
Middle School 6,702 6,972 7,342 6,783
Elementary 13.460 13,533 14,284 14,022
total 27,827 28,582 29,879 28,715

I'll point out that the for some reason, the 05/06 numbers were projections and they were below the actual of 28,207 for that year. All in all, the forecast was fairly close. Based upon an earlier post, the increase was 1.8% vs a projected increase of 2.7%. I'll give the board credit for discounting the NIU numbers..which were way out of line. Forecasts are difficult. We are currently far below some earlier forecasts...In case anyone is interested, the prior projections for 2006/2007 were:
in 1996 29,535
2001 greater than 30,000 (the projection for 2004/05 was 30,000, there was
nothing for 2005/2006, but at 2% growth would have been 31,212.)
2004 28,582
actual 28,715

[bob]

My second post linked to a page from the IPSD website.

I think the NIU numbers were pulled out of someone's ....

[chicoryowl]

...aspirin anyone?

[bob]

Here it is

www.savefile.com/files/192361

[EagleDad]

Thanks bob. Just curious, do you know what "13th grade" is

(Sounds like something I want to help my kids avoid )

[wvhsparent]

It's kinda like the new 5 and 6 year plans at college. 13th is for those who failed to get the required credits to graduate

[cantretirehere]

Does anyone know how much these groups of people, NIU, etc. get paid to come up with their projections?

I based my projection for this year's high school enrollment on the 2nd through 5th grade enrollment for the school year of 1999-00. I predicted (on Feb 24th) that there would be 7961 students in high school this year.
Actual = 7914.

There are 47 LESS students than even I predicted!

At least I went in the right direction, that is downward.

I think I missed my calling.

[wvhsparent]

Enrollment surprises Dist. 204
Elementary figures down, but overall numbers are up

By Sara Hooker
Daily Herald Staff Writer
Posted Friday, October 27, 2006

Elementary school enrollment declined this year for the first time since Indian Prairie Unit District 204 formed in 1972.

Overall enrollment increased by 424 students — to 28,637 — for the district that includes portions of Naperville, Aurora, Plainfield and Bolingbrook.

But elementary figures dipped nearly 100 students to 13,434 based on the district’s 30-day enrollment figures.

“We were a little surprised that some of the enrollments were down,” Superintendent Howard Crouse said. “Our biggest surprise was kindergarten being down compared to previous years and trying to determine where that’s coming from.”

The district’s enrollment estimates used in this year’s referendum campaign predicted an increase in kindergartners to more than 2,100. Instead, the number dropped by 111 to 1,988 students.

“That’s one that obviously you’d expect to set the stage for the future,” Crouse said. “I certainly don’t see a trend in one data point. We’ll just have to keep monitoring it.”

Crouse said he suspects increased use of alternative all-day kindergarten courses and a downturn in the housing market could be the source of the enrollment decline.

“If we’ve got empty houses because people have moved, then we might see more than the usual fluctuation,” he said. “We have the first down housing market in 15 years and I don’t know exactly how it’s affecting us.”

Of the district’s 21 elementary schools, more than half lost students since last year.

Enrollment in the middle schools increased overall by 218 students. High school enrollment increased by nearly 300.

Resident George Vickers, who opposed the March referendum asking voters for $124.7 million to construct another high school, told board members this week that the numbers confirm his belief that there isn’t a need for the facility. The school is slated to open in fall 2009 off Route 59 near 75th Street and Commons Drive in Aurora.

Declining class sizes are proof of that, he said.

“The need that was presented to the community prior to the March election isn’t really going to be there,” Vickers said. “If the track we’re on continues, we’re going to peak and be declining not very long after we’ve opened that school — a matter of a few years at most.”

Crouse disagrees.

“I look at trends rather than a single data point. We still are going up,” Crouse said. “Until we get more information, I have to continue to believe that we’re still going up.”




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