My Vote Prediction Map

[admin]

Blue=yes
Red=No
Purple=





Now I took complete guesses for Gombert,Steck,G-town and McCarthy. Others were educated guess.

[soxfan]

Wasn't Tallgrass the only large subdivision in the south to vote Yes last time? Anyone have the breakdown by precinct?

I know WE barely missed (one or two votes I think) but will be solidly YES this time.

I'm wondering what the incentive will be for the areas in the South that voted no last time will be to vote yes? Better communication this time? Anything else?

I have some pretty politically active friends in Springbrook that were NO's last time and remain solidly in the NO camp. Do you think because the boundary vote went their way it will incent them to change to YES this time?

[admin]

I have some pretty politically active friends in Springbrook that were NO's last time and remain solidly in the NO camp. Do you think because the boundary vote went their way it will incent them to change to YES this time?

If the Springbrook goes NO, Fry splits 50/50 and the referendum fails, Springbrook should be hung over a barrel from here on out. Somehow they got 5b squashed which stills intrigues me to this day.

[forthekids]

soxfan said:

Wasn't Tallgrass the only large subdivision in the south to vote Yes last time? Anyone have the breakdown by precinct?

I know WE barely missed (one or two votes I think) but will be solidly YES this time.

I'm wondering what the incentive will be for the areas in the South that voted no last time will be to vote yes? Better communication this time? Anything else?

I have some pretty politically active friends in Springbrook that were NO's last time and remain solidly in the NO camp. Do you think because the boundary vote went their way it will incent them to change to YES this time?

I just talked to a friend who lives in Knoch Knolls. She said she has only seen one NO sign and quite a number of Yes. I also just had to drive through Tall Grass. Took 103rd down Tall Grass Drive to Mistflower to Deering Bay. I did not see one sign of either persuasion. However, I heard that the CFO has blanketed the subdivision with a pamphlet. I haven't seen this pamphlet, but did hear that it was targeted at Tall Grass. One statement said that ITRP, Tall Grass will then be switched from going to the new school to WVHS. Talk about scare tactics!

[soxfan]

admin said:

I have some pretty politically active friends in Springbrook that were NO's last time and remain solidly in the NO camp. Do you think because the boundary vote went their way it will incent them to change to YES this time?

If the Springbrook goes NO, Fry splits 50/50 and the referendum fails, Springbrook should be hung over a barrel from here on out. Somehow they got 5b squashed which stills intrigues me to this day.

I agree. I still think FRY may split which is exactly what the school board boundary decision was based on. Their overwhelming support actually hurt them in the boundary decision as the majority of residents there wanted to remain at NVHS.

If SB votes no, I'll be stunned although, some that live there (that I know) see it as a real possibility

[doctorwho]

forthekids said:

soxfan said:

Wasn't Tallgrass the only large subdivision in the south to vote Yes last time? Anyone have the breakdown by precinct?

I know WE barely missed (one or two votes I think) but will be solidly YES this time.

I'm wondering what the incentive will be for the areas in the South that voted no last time will be to vote yes? Better communication this time? Anything else?

I have some pretty politically active friends in Springbrook that were NO's last time and remain solidly in the NO camp. Do you think because the boundary vote went their way it will incent them to change to YES this time?

I just talked to a friend who lives in Knoch Knolls. She said she has only seen one NO sign and quite a number of Yes. I also just had to drive through Tall Grass. Took 103rd down Tall Grass Drive to Mistflower to Deering Bay. I did not see one sign of either persuasion. However, I heard that the CFO has blanketed the subdivision with a pamphlet. I haven't seen this pamphlet, but did hear that it was targeted at Tall Grass. One statement said that ITRP, Tall Grass will then be switched from going to the new school to WVHS. Talk about scare tactics!

This flyer uses the creative population stats stated in the Herald article today -- I have not seen one with the TG to WVHS tactics -- that would be a new low.....as well as false --

[fence]

What does TG think is going to happen ITRF? Where do they think they'll be going next year when boundaries are redrawn? Its more probable that they will be at WV ITRF rather than ITRP. I guess that's why they're split, huh?

[soxfan]

fence said:

What does TG think is going to happen ITRF? Where do they think they'll be going next year when boundaries are redrawn? Its more probable that they will be at WV ITRF rather than ITRP. I guess that's why they're split, huh?

Fence,

From what I've heard (I think it came from Topher not sure though) there are too many children in WE and FRY to send to WVHS ITRF. I've heard the school board is considering title one balancing ITRF to balance enrollment of the schools. My question is, if that's the case, how could the district afford the increased transportation cost that would arise from such a scenario?

[soxfan]

fence said:

What does TG think is going to happen ITRF? Where do they think they'll be going next year when boundaries are redrawn? Its more probable that they will be at WV ITRF rather than ITRP. I guess that's why they're split, huh?

There are some that think the school board is going to make future changes to the boundary map. I'm not saying I agree so, please all, don't pounce on me. There are people that are so distrustful of the school board that they believe the board will open up discussion regarding Ashwood's boundary assignment. I think this started when JC brought up Peterson's "island" status at the last boundary meeting. Fuel was added to the fire when M2 was misquoted in the paper in his comments at a board meeting in response to a resident from that area. Some thought he alluded to a future fix.

Others feel that the school board will make a boundary change to sell the homes and therefore fill the schools.

AGAIN, NOT NECESSARILY MY OPINION (I do have questions regarding the school board's trustworthiness though)

Just filling you in on a theory floating around that area.

[fence]

soxfan said:

fence said:

What does TG think is going to happen ITRF? Where do they think they'll be going next year when boundaries are redrawn? Its more probable that they will be at WV ITRF rather than ITRP. I guess that's why they're split, huh?

Fence,

From what I've heard (I think it came from Topher not sure though) there are too many children in WE and FRY to send to WVHS ITRF. I've heard the school board is considering title one balancing ITRF to balance enrollment of the schools. My question is, if that's the case, how could the district afford the increased transportation cost that would arise from such a scenario?

That was probably Topher. He does well on the details and I deal in sweeping generalities!! ;D

Seriously, I'm not sure if WV has the room, but I do have a hunch that they'll take kids from the south west and move them to WV. Maybe they'll adjust Sector G back into NV then because of its southernmost position.

In regards to transportation, if boundaries need to change to shuffle kids wherever they'll fit, then we'll need to spend money paying for it.

I guess that's part of what has me confused on this referendum vote. We've all seen well run and well planned companies control their costs by doing a good job thinking ahead and strategically planning for the future. On the other hand, costs to operate inefficient and disorganized entities are astronomical. They don't leverage economies of scale, they duplicate efforts, they don't align departments or remote office purchasing with corporate, they waste a ton of money.

Somehow we're going to have to accept that our operating costs will go up dramatically if we have to bus, run split shifts, maintain buildings not meant to house the number of students that attend, buy portables, etc. Not to mention the "soft" costs our kids will pay during the process, be that an uncomfortable general experience, going to school until 5:30, taking a bus further and longer, loss of electives, etc.

We have an increasing number of butts trying to fit in a finite number of seats. There is just no way around that fact. They have to go somewhere. It is going to cost money regardless of which solution happens and that's just the cold hard fact. Spend it on double the number of teachers, portables, transportation and maintenance or spend it on a school. Pick your poison!

[fence]

soxfan said:

fence said:

What does TG think is going to happen ITRF? Where do they think they'll be going next year when boundaries are redrawn? Its more probable that they will be at WV ITRF rather than ITRP. I guess that's why they're split, huh?

There are some that think the school board is going to make future changes to the boundary map. I'm not saying I agree so, please all, don't pounce on me. There are people that are so distrustful of the school board that they believe the board will open up discussion regarding Ashwood's boundary assignment. I think this started when JC brought up Peterson's "island" status at the last boundary meeting. Fuel was added to the fire when M2 was misquoted in the paper in his comments at a board meeting in response to a resident from that area. Some thought he alluded to a future fix.

Others feel that the school board will make a boundary change to sell the homes and therefore fill the schools.

AGAIN, NOT NECESSARILY MY OPINION (I do have questions regarding the school board's trustworthiness though)

Just filling you in on a theory floating around that area.

Trust me, I know about the distrust of the SB. That's why I think no matter what they propose, it would be met with animosity. If they proposed an addition, the district would want a new school. Maybe they should have gone with that approach....

I'm not in love with all of them either, and in essence, we're dealing with local government, unions, and the convoluted institution of public education, and that can be an annoying combination. Whether or not I want to take it to a trust issue, I don't know. I think some of them are a little full of themselves, but they're also volunteers who spend a ton of time and probably really try to do the right thing most of the time. Is there a decision here and there that might have a tint of personal bias in it, sure. But that doesn't mean they're trying to screw us at every turn. It just means they're human and in politics, and trying to please alot of people with alot of different needs.

Look, this district has done very well for itself. We're not a group of yahoos with a bad reputation, spending more than every other district. Our costs are in line, we have built a solid reputation, our schools and our teachers are for the most part highly regarded. If the SB and the admin really sucked so bad, how would that be possible?

And yes, in a way, its certainly true that boundaries could change. There's just no way around that, no matter where you go. I think that mm sent Topher a message clarifying what he said, but who knows what will happen to Sector G.

All I know is we need the room. I don't care if my son goes to WV, NV, the 3rd HS or the moon. As long as he has a place to sit. And if he goes to WV and some little twirp from Peterson gets to go to NV, what do I care? I really just don't because it simply doesn't affect my life!

[rew]

Since no ES will go 100% one way or the other...let's make it 60 -40 and try to guess hoe an attendance area is going. Let's call any attendance area that we believe to be 60/40 one way or another "decided" and start from there?? And if our area is 50/50 then lets call it "undecided" and leave it for closer to the election. Do we have people on the board that could speak to most of the ESs?

[admin]

The SB just can't move only WE or TG into WV. A one school move would suddenly overcrowd WV.

But if they want to level test scores which some of them still do, after crunching some numbers before, the SB could swap TG and WE for Gombert and Colishaw. This would balance enrollment (almost to a T) and balance test scores. This is what I think they really might do.

[soxfan]

Great response Fence,

I agree with your analysis on the school board, while I appreciate all the time, thought and effort they put in, unfortunately, their most recent actions in relation to the boundary process have in my opinion, been rather strange and haven't come across very well to the public as a whole.

I with you that this district has been very well run in relation to other districts. The good 204 reputation was part of the reason we chose to live here. My children have gotten a good bang for our buck (and we all know it's more than one buck-rather many bucks) here in 204. So far this district has provided a great educational experience for my children.

Having said all that; I think the people of TG are somewhat dazed and very suspicious of the school board's actions. Whether or not it's justified, who knows, but it's a reality.
I'm not sure whether or not people in TG will be able to separate their distrust and bad feelings towards the school board in time for the vote. Many have explored other avenues than a YES vote and appear to be leaning against a third school. Rather unfortunate I think since there was so much support in TG the last time. This issue has been clouded.

I voted YES last time and worked hard to pass the referendum. Strangely, I have many more questions this time that I didn't have last time. I find that strange since the district has tried to provide us with more information. Statements like the one HC put out to the public to clarify optimal vs. actual space have actually confused rather clarified the issue for me. I'm also worried about the land. I'm not a big fan of eminent domain proceedings.

I working towards a YES vote again, but am not quite there yet. This board is helpful to me. I appreciate all the information here and find people very knowledgeable.

[soxfan]

admin said:

The SB just can't move only WE or TG into WV. A one school move would suddenly overcrowd WV.

But if they want to level test scores which some of them still do, after crunching some numbers before, the SB could swap TG and WE for Gombert and Colishaw. This would balance enrollment (almost to a T) and balance test scores. This is what I think they really might do.

Topher,

I've read that analysis before and think you've hit the nail on the head as to what the CURRENT board might do. After running the numbers on increased mileage, I find it hard to believe a cash strapped district with overcrowding issues, could finance the increase in transportation costs. In my analysis (and I'm sure it's not very accurate- very raw and taked off mapquest) it would add 20 miles a day for each bus in mileage. Have you done this analysis. Any idea as to the estimated cost this would add in busing?