R SCHOOLS R OVERCROWDED! HOW DO WE FIX 2DAY?

[harry]

For those on this board who feel that their voice counts and that the SB will heed their suggestions

[lacy]

Well, Harry, since they kicked you off you can't respond to anything else anyone says, but...

I do get your point. How can the SB declare that things will be SOOO overcrowded and yet not really be doing anything about it currently?

Since the first referendum failed (in 05?) they have added 1 portable at Scullen and the additional space at Frontier.

So the question is, if things are SOO bad then how are they currently making do? And why do we need a 3000 seat high school to address it?

You make a valid point Harry - even if alot of people on this board don't want to acknowledge it.

[Arch]

I think the real estate crunch and credit crunch next year after banks raise their default rates to around 33% right after the holidays will alleviate some crowding in the short term. Hedge that bet w/ the possibility that foreign investors may pull out of the real estate market (and accepting huge losses) due to the falling dollar and I think we'll have an interesting 'perfect storm' that might help the overcrowding situation.

... I'd love to be wrong though...

[scarbroughknight]

archwinsome said:

I think the real estate crunch and credit crunch next year after banks raise their default rates to around 33% right after the holidays will alleviate some crowding in the short term. Hedge that bet w/ the possibility that foreign investors may pull out of the real estate market (and accepting huge losses) due to the falling dollar and I think we'll have an interesting 'perfect storm' that might help the overcrowding situation.

... I'd love to be wrong though...

Good point Arch. My financial people tell me next year may even be worse. (with Bush in his last year) Just look at Ashwood and the empty strip malls. I will wager 8-5 odds the enrollments will be lower then the predictions in each of the next three years.

[we4]

archwinsome said:

I think the real estate crunch and credit crunch next year after banks raise their default rates to around 33% right after the holidays will alleviate some crowding in the short term. Hedge that bet w/ the possibility that foreign investors may pull out of the real estate market (and accepting huge losses) due to the falling dollar and I think we'll have an interesting 'perfect storm' that might help the overcrowding situation.

... I'd love to be wrong though...

Ok, I agree that if the house values (based on selling price) continue to fall then yes, credit cards are going to see a higher default rate. But things would have to be terrible for the default rate to get to 33%. I truly hope you are wrong. For 1 out of every 3rd person to card off or file bankruptcy, that is not a good thing. In any given month the default rate usually hovers around 4-6%, just to give some perspective (except in 2004 where it exceeded 6%.)

Hopefully, Arch, you are just exaggerating and I missed it.

edit: When I say default I mean complete charge off. I usually don't think of a month of late payments as default...2 months now you start to get worried. A charge off is 6 months of non-payment.

[Arch]

we4 said:

archwinsome said:

I think the real estate crunch and credit crunch next year after banks raise their default rates to around 33% right after the holidays will alleviate some crowding in the short term. Hedge that bet w/ the possibility that foreign investors may pull out of the real estate market (and accepting huge losses) due to the falling dollar and I think we'll have an interesting 'perfect storm' that might help the overcrowding situation.

... I'd love to be wrong though...

Ok, I agree that if the house values (based on selling price) continue to fall then yes, credit cards are going to see a higher default rate. But things would have to be terrible for the default rate to get to 33%. I truly hope you are wrong. For 1 out of every 3rd person to card off or file bankruptcy, that is not a good thing. In any given month the default rate usually hovers around 4-6%, just to give some perspective (except in 2004 where it exceeded 6%.)

Hopefully, Arch, you are just exaggerating and I missed it.

edit: When I say default I mean complete charge off. I usually don't think of a month of late payments as default...2 months now you start to get worried. A charge off is 6 months of non-payment.

Bank of America sent out notices this week of their new default CC rate being 32.99% for their Credit Cards. It looks like every other offer many of us just throw into the trash like junk mail. In there are instructions on how to NOT ACCEPT the change of terms... but you have to do so in writing by mid December. Otherwise, starting Jan 18th, that change goes into effect.

So.. that being said.. yes.. something BAD is brewing out there and it's not getting better anytime soon.

[doctorwho]

archwinsome said:

we4 said:

Ok, I agree that if the house values (based on selling price) continue to fall then yes, credit cards are going to see a higher default rate. But things would have to be terrible for the default rate to get to 33%. I truly hope you are wrong. For 1 out of every 3rd person to card off or file bankruptcy, that is not a good thing. In any given month the default rate usually hovers around 4-6%, just to give some perspective (except in 2004 where it exceeded 6%.)

Hopefully, Arch, you are just exaggerating and I missed it.

edit: When I say default I mean complete charge off. I usually don't think of a month of late payments as default...2 months now you start to get worried. A charge off is 6 months of non-payment.

Bank of America sent out notices this week of their new default CC rate being 32.99% for their Credit Cards. It looks like every other offer many of us just throw into the trash like junk mail. In there are instructions on how to NOT ACCEPT the change of terms... but you have to do so in writing by mid December. Otherwise, starting Jan 18th, that change goes into effect.

So.. that being said.. yes.. something BAD is brewing out there and it's not getting better anytime soon.

yep -- got that -- do not be late with ANY charge card payments --I late payment anywhere -- lost in the mail etc and it's lights out

[Arch]

Rewind back 2 years to 2005, and everyone remembers one of the provision changes to the BK reform.. Yup, homestead exemptions capped at $125,000, regardless of the law of the state.

When people get nailed w/ CC debt being jacked up, their house will come right along with it (being forced to sell in a BAD and DOWN market) to pay that CC debt.

It's going to get very ugly, I think.

Like I said.. I hope I am wrong.. but having been watching this chess game closely the past few years, checkmate seems right around the corner.

[we4]

archwinsome said:

we4 said:

Ok, I agree that if the house values (based on selling price) continue to fall then yes, credit cards are going to see a higher default rate. But things would have to be terrible for the default rate to get to 33%. I truly hope you are wrong. For 1 out of every 3rd person to card off or file bankruptcy, that is not a good thing. In any given month the default rate usually hovers around 4-6%, just to give some perspective (except in 2004 where it exceeded 6%.)

Hopefully, Arch, you are just exaggerating and I missed it.

edit: When I say default I mean complete charge off. I usually don't think of a month of late payments as default...2 months now you start to get worried. A charge off is 6 months of non-payment.

Bank of America sent out notices this week of their new default CC rate being 32.99% for their Credit Cards. It looks like every other offer many of us just throw into the trash like junk mail. In there are instructions on how to NOT ACCEPT the change of terms... but you have to do so in writing by mid December. Otherwise, starting Jan 18th, that change goes into effect.

So.. that being said.. yes.. something BAD is brewing out there and it's not getting better anytime soon.

After going back and re-reading all this, we are talking about two different rates, I think. I am talking about non-payment and if I am reading correctly, I think you are talking about interest rates. I hope.

[Arch]

Yes, WE4.. Interest rates.

I was off, it's 32.24% not 32.99%.

The banks are going to be hedging the consumer debt out there, it seems and nailing everyone right after the Holidays. "...Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good screw"

[gatordog]

Being that you are giving me visions of a Great Depression, its time for some Woody Guthrie:

Yes, as through this world I've wandered
I've seen lots of funny men;
Some will rob you with a six-gun,
And some with a fountain pen.

And as through your life you travel,
Yes, as through your life you roam,
You won't never see an outlaw
Drive a family from their home.

[bob]

With the new bankruptcy laws, it is now easier to default on your house then your credit card debt.

[lacy]

archwinsome said:

I think the real estate crunch and credit crunch next year after banks raise their default rates to around 33% right after the holidays will alleviate some crowding in the short term. Hedge that bet w/ the possibility that foreign investors may pull out of the real estate market (and accepting huge losses) due to the falling dollar and I think we'll have an interesting 'perfect storm' that might help the overcrowding situation.

... I'd love to be wrong though...

This all makes for really fascinating reading....and all the pessimists (contrarians) of the world are helping my portfolio. When pessimism is high, that's a good thing for stocks.

And I do think there is a credit crunch and people who over extended themselves and that will play out in the market. There has clearly been a real estate slump nationwide. But...

I think that some of the downward enrollment trend in this district is due to the direction the SB and SD are taking us.

Again, nothing is ever their fault - let's blame something/someone else besides them.

[bob]

Blaming the SB for the downturn in enrollment?

Again, I don't know about the math you took but 29234 > 28995.

Oh and again, everything is the SB and admin fault. They are the reason why people have stopped moving into 204. Also, that is why Ken And Barbie can't afford their mortgage and taxes. It is because of the SB and not that Ken and Barbie bought a $500k house with no money down with a $80k income, $15k in credit card debt and two car payments.

[Arch]

bob said:

Blaming the SB for the downturn in enrollment?

Again, I don't know about the math you took but 29234 > 28995.

Oh and again, everything is the SB and admin fault. They are the reason why people have stopped moving into 204. Also, that is why Ken And Barbie can't afford their mortgage and taxes. It is because of the SB and not that Ken and Barbie bought a $500k house with no money down with a $80k income, $15k in credit card debt and two car payments.

...and they relied upon the fact that they could house hop every 2 years and bank a profit on the home sale, then buy their next new home and have low property taxes and do the same 2 year wait and keep house hopping as values went up and up.. all the while taking out interest only mortgages to keep their 'cash flow' higher each month and now that they can't sell at a 'profit' like they could before and the taxes are catching up for being in the place for more than a couple of years and the sale profit isn't there because there isn't a buyer and now they are basically screwed because the music stopped and they are left standing without a chair to sit in.. .Um.. Yea... that too is the School Board's fault.