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Post by casey on Sept 24, 2008 16:09:52 GMT -6
The emotional side of me says "leave the current frosh where they are". If I had a freshman this year, I'd be saying the exact same thing. But, realistically, leaving students where they are adds to the overcrowding at WV and NV. I will have students affected by both and from that sense, sorry, "I want you out". Please don't take offense, I do not mean this in an angry way. It's for purely self centered reasons that I want both NV and WV to be less crowded. I totally agree that it is not fair, nor fun, for the frosh moving. But you cannot have a school sitting empty and then have NV and WV students sitting on top of one another. The numbers have to work. Thank you, rew, for being brutally honest. I do respect your opinion and honesty. FWIW, I think that you hit the nail on the head when you said "If I had a freshman this year, I'd be saying the exact same thing." That's part of the problem. Those that aren't affected don't share the same understanding and have sympathy. I wonder how differently things would be viewed if King Metzger had a freshman  ? Unfortunately, there are many of us that DO have freshmen this year and we know what the right thing to do is. Granted, I'm sure that there are plenty that feel as you do ("I want you out!") but ask yourself if this is really fair to those kids? Do you think that the current freshman that are expected to be moved will be getting the same HS experience as those that aren't? Let's face it, this year is riddled with plenty of issues with a supposed transition and move looming in the future. Then next year they are forced to deal with a whole other set of problems (especially MV kids). Flat-out these kids are getting ripped off on their HS experience. In my child's years in 204 we've had the most crowded ES (almost 1000 kids and 5-6 sections of each grade with an average of 28 kids, oh, and 4 principals at Fry), the most crowded MS (almost 1500 kids needing trailers, losing family rooms, sharing lockers, having lunch at crazy hours, etc.), and now expected to move high schools after freshman year? Personally, I think that my child has experienced more than her fair share of angst. We've dealt with the overcrowding issues but a move after freshman year? That's just not right. It just doesn't make sense to move kids from their current HS after freshman year. The impact at NV would be negligible and it only moves more crowding to WV but maybe that's good for you and others  ? |
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Post by rew on Sept 24, 2008 18:01:12 GMT -6
Let me say, none of it is "good" for me. My kids have also lived through some of the district's worst crowding. We had classes that split in ES mid year, I have one at Scullen now and my kids will be at two different HSs at the same time.
I am not happy and not supportive of what the district's doing. I am not asking for sacrifices, I am asking for numbers. I want to know what the impact of not moving the freshman does to the numbers.
No it does not make sense to move the freshman, it does not make sense to build the school and increase avg commute times etc etc. It doesn't appear the district is interested in the "what makes sense" argument. When you say the impact to NV is negligible, define negligible.
I understand and agree with the "what's best for the kids", "what makes sense" argument. I ask that someone crunch the current enrollment for the next three years and show how it impacts the schools.
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Post by rew on Sept 24, 2008 18:45:10 GMT -6
I tried my best to crunch some numbers. I took the enrollment from the MSs and multiplied them by the current split percentages to estimate incoming frosh classes for NV and WV. This is what I get
NV: leaving current Frosh
current 2008 Fr 1280 (gold) SO 1200 + JR 1140 + SR 1121 = 3461 (blue) = 4740
2009 Fr = 1014 (gold) So 1280 + Jr 1200 + Sr 1140 = 3620 (blue) = 4634
2010 Fr = 1000 (gold) So 1014 + Jr 1280 + Sr 1200 = 3494 =4494
( I took 50%Scullen + Crone + Gregory from 6th, 7th and 8th to get Fr #s)
For WV: leaving current Frosh
current 08 Fr 1100 + So 946 + Jr 945 + Sr 943 = 2834 (green) = 3940
09 Fr 730 + So 1100 + Jr 946 + Sr 943 = 3719
10 Fr 720 + So 730 + Jr 1100 + Sr 946 = 3496
(I took current ratio of kids staying at WV (45%) at Hill, Granger, and Still from 6th, 7th and 8th + 240 WE/TG kids to get Fr #s )
Do the assumptions seem reasonable?
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Post by researching on Sept 24, 2008 20:10:35 GMT -6
I tried my best to crunch some numbers. I took the enrollment from the MSs and multiplied them by the current split percentages to estimate incoming frosh classes for NV and WV. This is what I get NV: leaving current Frosh current 2008 Fr 1280 (gold) SO 1200 + JR 1140 + SR 1121 = 3461 (blue) = 4740 2009 Fr = 1014 (gold) So 1280 + Jr 1200 + Sr 1140 = 3620 (blue) = 4634 2010 Fr = 1000 (gold) So 1014 + Jr 1280 + Sr 1200 = 3494 =4494 ( I took 50%Scullen + Crone + Gregory from 6th, 7th and 8th to get Fr #s) For WV: leaving current Frosh current 08 Fr 1100 + So 946 + Jr 945 + Sr 943 = 2834 (green) = 3940 09 Fr 730 + So 1100 + Jr 946 + Sr 943 = 3719 10 Fr 720 + So 730 + Jr 1100 + Sr 946 = 3496 (I took current ratio of kids staying at WV (45%) at Hill, Granger, and Still from 6th, 7th and 8th + 240 WE/TG kids to get Fr #s ) Do the assumptions seem reasonable? Maybe, maybe not. What I am wondering is how you believe these numbers actually support the argument to move these kids? Here are some factual numbers. From the NVHS new Principal as posted on the NVHS website: "Welcome to the 2008-2009 school year! As of our second day of school, we counted 4,538 students attending Neuqua Valley High School. Of that number, we tallied our largest freshman class ever at the Gold Building with 1,221 students in attendance. "Here are the numbers I retrieved from the WVHS page (it's a cool page wvhs.ipsd.org/images/2008-2009/WVprofile0809.pdf ) "Total Number of Students: 3888
Seniors: 896 Juniors: 940 Sophomores: 953 Freshman: 1099"These are the actual numbers posted by each school. As you can see, your own estimate is too high (by 202) at NVHS and WVHS (by only 52). You were nearly dead on with the WV Gold Campus. Your own numbers put the WV Green Campus MUCH higher (up by 885 students) with the removal of the Gold Campus in 2009-2010. While NV's Blue Campus numbers change that year from 3317 now to 3077 in 09-10. WV will have about 642 MORE students in their one building than NV will in its main building.  And again, in 2009-2010 WV will have about 885 MORE students in it's main building then it does now.As you said, you just want to look at the numbers. Please help me understand how the above numbers indicate any benefit for the class of 2012? |
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Post by rew on Sept 24, 2008 20:27:50 GMT -6
I was actually not using the numbers to argue for or against your position. I am just trying to get a handle on the numbers.
I was using the districts numbers from the end of school last year. If you have more current enrollment figures from this year for the 6th through 8th graders, please share them and I will update the totals.
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Post by researching on Sept 24, 2008 20:30:58 GMT -6
I was actually not using the numbers to argue for or against your position. I am just trying to get a handle on the numbers. I was using the districts numbers from the end of school last year. If you have more current enrollment figures from this year for the 6th through 8th graders, please share them and I will update the totals. What are you looking for? I am speaking of and ONLY of the class of 2012. The class of 2012 should not be moved period. It serves NO purpose for those kids or the district. |
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Post by rew on Sept 24, 2008 20:32:14 GMT -6
Are you proposing moving the WV frosh next year to MV, but not moving the NV frosh to WV? I thought the idea being discussed was to not move any frosh next year? Am I confused?
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Post by researching on Sept 24, 2008 20:40:12 GMT -6
Are you proposing moving the WV frosh next year to MV, but not moving the NV frosh to WV? I thought the idea being discussed was to not move any frosh next year? Am I confused? I support MV opening with Freshmen only. I do NOT support moving ANY class of 2012 students. WV or NV. |
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Post by Arch on Sept 24, 2008 20:51:15 GMT -6
Are you proposing moving the WV frosh next year to MV, but not moving the NV frosh to WV? I thought the idea being discussed was to not move any frosh next year? Am I confused? I support MV opening with Freshmen only. I do NOT support moving ANY class of 2012 students. WV or NV. Agreed with you on this one. 2013 kids move, not 2012. Thereby, everyone who started at a school finishes at that same school. |
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Post by doctorwho on Sept 24, 2008 21:22:51 GMT -6
I was actually not using the numbers to argue for or against your position. I am just trying to get a handle on the numbers. I was using the districts numbers from the end of school last year. If you have more current enrollment figures from this year for the 6th through 8th graders, please share them and I will update the totals. ask and you shall receive - here are prelim numbers: They are prelim and can change - but likely not drastically NOTE: some ES changes remember the movement made of some kids from one ES to another NOTE: I do not have grade breakdowns so can't tell you impact of ADK yet - remember they were predicting +175 here NOTE: 'growth' isnot growth - it is the bubble going thru - smaller class of 2008 graduated than ones immediately behind it in the pipeline SD March 2008 forecast for the next 4 years after this was 2010 +21 2011 +40 2012 + 26 2013 (152) NOTE: rememberlast 2 years 1st and 2nd grade had declined NOTE: most surprising is DROP in Middle School Attendance - YTY March 'forecast' was for 6935 September 2, 2008 INDIAN PRAIRIE SCHOOL DISTRICT #204 SIXTH DAY ENROLLMENT - REVISED Comparison September 5, 2007 2008-09 2007-08 2008-09 to 2007-08 School Total Total Difference Brookdale 515 480 35 Brooks 658 660 (2)Builta 557 704 (147)Clow 451 490 (39)Cowlishaw 662 593 69 Fry 851 869 (18)Georgetown 618 601 17 Gombert 524 523 1 Graham 632 665 (33)Kendall 698 708 (10)Longwood 413 471 (58)McCarty 637 672 (35)Owen 560 558 2 Patterson 701 745 (44)Peterson 480 446 34 Spring Brook 806 666 140 Steck 697 662 35 Watts 596 536 60 Welch 842 823 19 White Eagle 556 575 (19)Young 792 738 54 Crone 1200 1192 8 Granger 1152 1176 (24)Gregory 1095 1134 (39)Hill 919 911 8 Scullen 1407 1451 (44)Still 1124 1143 (19)Neuqua Valley* 4664 4466 198 Waubonsie Valley* 3878 3637 241 Indian Plains 73 50 23 Ourtside Place - Sp Ed - Tuition108 93 15 Ourtside Place - Reg Ed - Tuition8 13 (5)Preschool - Special Ed 252 201 51 Preschool - Tuition 353 398 (45)TOTAL 29479 29050 429 Total Elementary 13246 13185 61 Total Middle 6897 7007 (110)Total High 8542 8103 439 |
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Post by doctorwho on Sept 24, 2008 21:32:22 GMT -6
I was actually not using the numbers to argue for or against your position. I am just trying to get a handle on the numbers. I was using the districts numbers from the end of school last year. If you have more current enrollment figures from this year for the 6th through 8th graders, please share them and I will update the totals. ask and you shall receive - here are prelim numbers: They are prelim and can change - but likely not drastically NOTE: some ES changes remember the movement made of some kids from one ES to another NOTE: I do not have grade breakdowns so can't tell you impact of ADK yet - remember they were predicting +175 here NOTE: 'growth' isnot growth - it is the bubble going thru - smaller class of 2008 graduated than ones immediately behind it in the pipeline SD March 2008 forecast for the next 4 years after this was 2010 +21 2011 +40 2012 + 26 2013 (152) NOTE: rememberlast 2 years 1st and 2nd grade had declined NOTE: most surprising is DROP in Middle School Attendance - YTY March 'forecast' was for 6935 September 2, 2008 INDIAN PRAIRIE SCHOOL DISTRICT #204 SIXTH DAY ENROLLMENT - REVISED Comparison September 5, 2007 2008-09 2007-08 2008-09 to 2007-08 School Total Total Difference Brookdale 515 480 35 Brooks 658 660 (2) Builta 557 704 (147) Clow 451 490 (39) Cowlishaw 662 593 69 Fry 851 869 (18) Georgetown 618 601 17 Gombert 524 523 1 Graham 632 665 (33) Kendall 698 708 (10) Longwood 413 471 (58) McCarty 637 672 (35) Owen 560 558 2 Patterson 701 745 (44) Peterson 480 446 34 Spring Brook 806 666 140 Steck 697 662 35 Watts 596 536 60 Welch 842 823 19 White Eagle 556 575 (19) Young 792 738 54 Crone 1200 1192 8 Granger 1152 1176 (24) Gregory 1095 1134 (39) Hill 919 911 8 Scullen 1407 1451 (44) Still 1124 1143 (19) Neuqua Valley* 4664 4466 198 Waubonsie Valley* 3878 3637 241 Indian Plains 73 50 23 Ourtside Place - Sp Ed - Tuition108 93 15 Ourtside Place - Reg Ed - Tuition8 13 (5) Preschool - Special Ed 252 201 51 Preschool - Tuition 353 398 (45) TOTAL 29479 29050 429 Total Elementary 13246 13185 61 Total Middle 6897 7007 (110) Total High 8542 8103 439 OK - My bad -- I do have it by grades - even more telling -- now if I could only learn to cut and paste aPDF with formatting -- grrrr here we go NOTE: If really 175 ADK added - then K would have been down 42 - and remember not all 175 will be staying in public school - and it's notapples to apples -- for those who are staying 1G numbers won't deviate from recent pattern - it just gets them here a year earlier NOTE that the K # even with ADK is much lower than 1G or 2G numbers and the drops in 1G and 2G have become more pronounced. So much for people 'flocking' to the area as I read somewhere else  September 2, 2008 INDIAN PRAIRIE SCHOOL DISTRICT #204 SIXTH DAY ENROLLMENT - REVISED Comparison September 5, 2007 2008-09 2007-08 Grade Level Total Total Difference Grade K 1954 1821 133 Grade 1 2117 2199 (82)Grade 2 2247 2360 (113)Grade 3 2352 2258 94 Grade 4 2274 2326 (52)Grade 5 2318 2221 97 Grade 6 2243 2301 (58)Grade 7 2316 2344 (28)Grade 8 2365 2362 3 Grade 9 2329 2126 203 Grade 10 2164 2075 89 Grade 11 2093 2028 65 Grade 12* 2093 1857 236 Grade 13 9 17 (8)Phoenix 24 18 6 Grad Academy 49 32 17 TOTAL 28947 28345 602 *Includes Seniors at Frontier |
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Post by doctorwho on Sept 24, 2008 21:56:55 GMT -6
So if every single kid in the pipeline K thru 3 stayed in 204 - and we already know this is not true based on history and G1 & 2 declining for the 3rd year in a row / with private school attendance for 204 kids rising /
this leaves with 8670 kids HS age when they would get there / take away 600 for Frontier Campus and 8070 is your bogey. We are building a $150M - 3000 student HS.
For those who like the freshman campus at NV - there will be no need for it then. Of course we could have built a 7th MS and kept the Waubonsie Gold campus.... and saved likely $120M....
I can hear it already - we can't wait 9 more years - well you wouldn't have to - remember MS is already dropping ( down 110 from last year) - and the classes feeding MS next are smaller than the ones alreayd there, the wait was a few more years. There was no danger of split shifts - or anything of the like.
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Post by Arch on Sept 24, 2008 22:09:34 GMT -6
So, we had a mouse to kill. Instead of using a $4 glue board we went and bought a 4.3 million dollar M1 tank to do it.
Yes, I know that is an unfair comparison. We could have bought roughly 35 tanks for our 150 million...
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Post by doctorwho on Sept 24, 2008 22:31:15 GMT -6
So, we had a mouse to kill. Instead of using a $4 glue board we went and bought a 4.3 million dollar M1 tank to do it. Yes, I know that is an unfair comparison. We could have bought roughly 35 tanks for our 150 million... yep- and then when chasing the mouse our tank also fell in a ditch........( a common problem I hear)  |
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Post by d204mom on Sept 24, 2008 22:43:23 GMT -6
Back when Dave Holm gave that ADK presentation to the school board - around Thanksgiving - they were claiming something like +200 or +250 due to ADK. We only got +133?
Maybe that is due to declining enrollment? (An extra 200 or 250 signed up - that we would have picked up in 1st anyway - but the class sizes continue to go down?)
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?
?
And again, in 2009-2010 WV will have about 885 MORE students in it's main building then it does now.
