Enrollment Numbers Discussion

[bob]

ES 13185 -249
MS 7007 124
HS 8086 176
28278 51

[casey]

Ok, let's face facts, we know the Referendum has passed and there's NO WAY our SB is going to back down and not build a 3rd HS. They've got the $$, it's going to happen. Let's just hope they use some common sense and explore options other than BB at the cost involved.

That being said, I do find it interesting to look at the enrollment numbers just provided. Let's try to understand this, the ES numbers are now DOWN 249 kids? Move that number ahead to the year 2010 (the first year that a new school IMO could open) and we're dealing with less kids at the severely overcrowded MS level. Middle schools will be less crowded than they are today (even more so if that 7th MS is added). The MS numbers are up today and they'll stay up but these kids will be at the HS by then (and it's way less than the number of HS kids now, in fact it's 1100 kids less!). The overcrowded MS and HS of 2007 will stay that way and won't improve by building for 2010. I never thought I'd question the need of that 3rd HS but now given the timing and costs of BB, I wonder if there really is the need?

FWIW, I have kids at the HS, MS, and ES right now. We're living through the overcrowded situation NOW but building in 2009 or 2010 won't change my kids' situation. My kids are all happy at their schools - they're crowded but they can deal. No matter how you slice it, the MS kids of today are the ones that definitely get the short end of the stick. I think it's more critical to focus on solving the over-crowded problems of today (consider MS boundary changes, etc.).

In the perfect world, I'd love to see a new MS built immediately and have AC in all the ES buildings but that isn't happening.

[lacy]

bob said:

Paul White withhold some more facts.

Grade School going down because the two large classes left.

HS School
9143 2016
9165 2015
9106 2014
9192 2013
9228 2012
9133 2011
8907 2010
8591 2009
8086 2008

Increasing home valuations do have a part in increasing property taxes which he omitts.

Ask your neighbor, who had her house foreclosed because she could not pay her tax bill, what she calls it.

1)I call it buying a house outside her means. Maybe Paul White wants to subsidise people so they can buy houses they can't afford. Is he trying to be Hillary's running mate.

2) If her house was foreclosed, it was because she couldn't pay her mortgage not her taxes.

Bob, don't forget the class of 2017 (current K-3) - 8638

No matter which class we look at, it's no more than 1000 students more than we are accomodating currently.

Do we need a 3000 seat high school? (And before you say you're converting the gold campus to a middle school, we still end up with 4K seats at NVHS and 3K each at MVHS and WVHS. That's 10K seats for 9K students.)

[bob]

That K class will pick up at least 10% when going into 1st.

This year's 1st grade picked up 211 kids after K.

[lacy]

O.K., so I'll spot you 200 and that brings that graduating class to 8838. Why are we building a 3000 seat high school? Should we re-evaluate this decision before we just plow forward?

Someone brought up the private sector today and what they would do (in a different situation). Only in governmental situations do people just go ahead and spend money because it's "there".

Just because it's budgeted and approved doesn't mean it's still a wise decision if the landscape has changed.

[doctorwho]

lacy said:

O.K., so I'll spot you 200 and that brings that graduating class to 8838. Why are we building a 3000 seat high school? Should we re-evaluate this decision before we just plow forward?

Someone brought up the private sector today and what they would do (in a different situation). Only in governmental situations do people just go ahead and spend money because it's "there".

Just because it's budgeted and approved doesn't mean it's still a wise decision if the landscape has changed.

Okay, even if we leave NV at 4000 and WV at 3000 that leaves 1838 without a seat. Let's assume for a minute that instead of a potential for 10% growth left to build out in the district, we even make that 5%. That would be 442 more ( on 8838 base) - 9270. Where do they go ?

Yes it would be a case for a 2500 student HS, but not for no HS

[Arch]

So build a less capacity school and toss all of the future overflow to the HS that keeps its freshman campus.

[Arch]

It's unfortunate that as hard as Paul tries to understand tax bills and liens that he somehow has them mistaken for the actual debt against the house itself which is entirely the fault of the homeowner for taking on too much debt themselves in their own lives and not the fault of the taxing bodies.

Paul also thinks that getting large subsidies to build a school at little to no cost to the taxpayer is a bad thing. Perhaps his line of thinking is simply anti-schools or anti-kids. Maybe he can clarify that stance for us with a future LTE.

[harry]

bob said:

ES 13185 -249
MS 7007 124
HS 8086 176
28278 51

Question Bob..

Are these the 6 day numbers???

I am assuming that these are still the estimates and not the publicly released numbers that are T/C in Oct (tho I heard that the 9/30 SD numbers have been run)

Also, do they include Frontier numbers??? If so how many students are there this year @ Frontier?

Thank you

[gatordog]

How much of the ES drop is explained by All Saints Academy enrollment growing? Is this the second full school year of All Saints? I know All Saints draws from 203 and 204. But alot of 203 parochial school enrollment goes to St Peter and Paul. I bet (dont know for sure) that more than half of All Saints enrollement is 204 area.

Much of All Saint enrollment will be coming back to public school for HS. They all wont go to Benet or Rosary or St Francis.

Without delving further, you cannot conclude that negative ES growth moves forward to negative HS enrollment for those classes. I think it may be reflecting a new, fairly large K-8 school up and running in our area.

[doctorwho]

gatordog said:

How much of the ES drop is explained by All Saints Academy enrollment growing? Is this the second full school year of All Saints? I know All Saints draws from 203 and 204. But alot of 203 parochial school enrollment goes to St Peter and Paul. I bet (dont know for sure) that more than half of All Saints enrollement is 204 area.

Much of All Saint enrollment will be coming back to public school for HS. They all wont go to Benet or Rosary or St Francis.

Without delving further, you cannot conclude that negative ES growth moves forward to negative HS enrollment for those classes. I think it may be reflecting a new, fairly large K-8 school up and running in our area.

Benet and St Francis ( <200 ) class sizes too small to hold anywhere near the population of Peter and Paul / All Saints / Rafael and the Catholic schools in Lisle / D.G / Wheaton etc... - a sizeable portion return to public HS. So yes, paying attention to All Saints class sizes is a future factor as a portion of that is 204.

[concerned]

Here is what I found

2007-08 2006-07 difference

Brookdale 481 468 13

Brooks 662 687 (25)

Builta 705 710 (5)

Clow 491 500 (9)

Cowlishaw 595 604 (9)

Fry 871 871 0

Georgetown 615 634 (19)

Gombert 528 501 27

graham 666 724 (58)

kendall 710 738 (28)

longwood 477 458 19

McCarty 673 715 (42)

Owen 561 562 (1)

Patterson 745 772 (27)

Peterson 444 0 444

Spring Brook 667 682 (15)

Steck 663 705 (42)

Watts 538 527 11

Welch 833 878 (45)

Wheatland 0 349 (349)

White Eagle 579 606 (27)

Young 741 743 (2)

[concerned]

middle schools

2007-08 2006-07 difference

Crone 1194 1204 (10)

Granger 1178 1126 52

Gregory 1132 1134 (2)

Hill 925 919 6

Scullen 1447 1363 84

Still 1150 1137 13

[concerned]

high schools

2007-08 2006-07 Difference

Neuqua 4491 4281 210



Waubonsie Valley 3691 3633 58

Indian Plains 56 74 (18)

Special Ed Tuition 97 88 9

Regular Ed Tuition 12 6 6

Special Ed preschool 207 238 (31)

[concerned]

Total Elementary 13245 13434 (189)
Total Middle 7026 6883 143
total high 8182 7914 268

high school numbers include Senios ar Frontier, but does not include IPHS